Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bozzy_s] 13/7/2018 00:29

You sure of your numbers this time Diane?

Is your last name Abbott?

[dianecarberry] 12/7/2018 18:25

This is only going one way.

Downwards.

Fair value 10p ish.

[jeanesy] 12/7/2018 18:13

Still looks to me like the seller is still offloading. I wonder how many they have left ?

[gutterhead] 12/7/2018 15:52

good to see some new faces

[callmebwana] 12/7/2018 14:45

It does not matter what the Divi is, I feel the share price will more then compensate
for having the the patience,this is still well under the radar but not for to long,the Divi will be the cream on top.A very good share to hold long term in the ISA.
A gem to hold IMHO. NAI.

[wimbled] 12/7/2018 14:31

Believe we may see 4 to 8p dividend next year. Based on forecast cash flow.

[callmebwana] 12/7/2018 14:08

Just added more today. Bought twice today.First trade at 40.85P. Last trade got them at 42.77P. Still dirt cheap at the moment. NAI.
GLA.

[terropol] 12/7/2018 13:47

Re Copper price coming down due to China export duty. If China exports less, then America will manufacture much more and will need to import the base metals?? Looking forward to q2 update next week.

[broken_arrow1] 12/7/2018 13:42

Decided to add more today, this potentially yields 5%, exceptionally well covered, more interesting, the dividend policy is generous moving forward.

This company throws off cash, to the extent it has wiped of nearly all of $30m debt in short time.

Broker says 72p, you can buy in at 43p now !!

[callmebwana] 12/7/2018 13:36

Guys why waste your time with DC ?? this person followed Peterpowell from the MTL thread to this BB.There are a couple of them that have a problem with Peter from their past.Not invested here either !!
I have both on filter.

[bozzy_s] 12/7/2018 13:26

^ Re above, I've found it at last!

Diane is referencing last year's interim results. Operating cashflow before movements in working capital $8,683

Could've saved me a bit of time and answered the other posters' questions yourself Diane!

So just to clarify, H1 2017 operating cashflow before movements in working capital $8,683 thousands.

H2 2017 operating cashflow before movements in working capital $32,200 - $8,683 = $23,517 thousands.



Oh I see why you didn't answer, #67 is pretty embarrassing! Whoopsie. Perhaps check facts before laying into someone? That's bloody awful actually.

[mattjos] 12/7/2018 12:27

13 years since AAZ came to market, issuing 26m shares at 77p to give a total of 99.2m shares in issue.

Now, after all this time, we still only have 114.2m shares in issue.

Try go find another AIM explorer/miner that has suffered such minimal dilution over that same time frame. most are actually bust or have moved on to some other opportunity as the first one failed.
Then ask is other company now profitable? Are they going to pay a maiden dividend this year?

There just is not another like this one as far as I know. This fact in itself deserves a premium rating to the rest of the dross on the market

[mattjos] 12/7/2018 12:16

you could buy this whole company today and recoup your purchase price in under three years from its cash flow!! think about that just in financial terms for a moment and then also consider how long it has taken AAZ to put together its whole operation in Azerbaijan (the kit, the people, the knowledge etc) .. in any business sense, this is too cheap

[mattjos] 12/7/2018 12:09

Reza & the BOD have played it right .. they maxed their debts when the US interest rates were nailed down at zero (OK, we pay more in that part of the world) and have cleared the bulk of the debts just before US Rates have started rising.
Many, many other companies in the Emerging Markets have not cleared their $ debts and are now in trouble as their domestic currencies are hammered lower and their interest rate burden rises coupled with a US$ liquidity problem in these parts of the world.

Our sales are in US$ & we could (if we wished) clear our debts today so, as compared to many other companies, we are in a great position.

Most folk don't see to understand just how well Reza & co have played this over the last 5 years. We did not take on debt to buy back stock or some other wheeze .. the debt was specifically to grow the size of the company, to lower costs and increase profits. Now we are going to see the benefits of that investment.

The current mkt cap is total nonsense .. its insanely cheap

[bumpa33] 12/7/2018 12:08

Exactly, at a quid you could give question over the price in relation to recent Au movements - at 42p though we’re still ridiculously undervalued regardless of those movements...

[celeritas] 12/7/2018 12:04

We have been over $1200 for some time now which for me has been a major bonus.
Had AAM been over 100p then I would have said yes, maybe follow gold prices round to an extent but at 42p it makes no sense.

[bumpa33] 12/7/2018 11:53

Sure recent gold price action - in relation to dollar strength over trade war fears (a short term anomaly in my view - $ strength that is) has played its part in recent weakness.

the step change in the company’s fortunes though far outweighs these concerns in my view.

[2sporrans] 12/7/2018 11:11

Thanks for that jbe.

Although one can't divine the reason[s] for any particular holder to sell, what are the -ve's for AAZ at this time?
The only ones that I can discern are these:

1. Lingering doubts about the resource/mine life and a very pessimistic expectation for the $6-mn-pa exploration programme.
2. Concerns related to the move towards a higher % of copper production from now through H2 and 2019 and the margin in prospect for the Copper concentrate production stream. [The current margin on Gold production is ~$600-$650/oz but what about the Cc?]
3. Most obviously, the fallen prices for gold and copper [back to a year ago] and moreso, the fear of further, prolonged falls - again most obviously related to 'trade war' impact upon econ. growth.
4. Unease over regional instability, though hard to see this igniting within Azerbaijan itself, not least given the buoyant Gas/oil revenue flows.

While most here will dismiss all of the above, it's worth examining downside factors, if only to appreciate the undervaluation to extent they manifest in only a marginal way or not at all.
I've been adding steadily the past several weeks.
Think the recent share price Angel note is likely to prove a pretty good guide for next year or so + the AGM feedback suggests it's a conservative take by mgt, relayed to the broker.

[king suarez] 12/7/2018 11:05

I imagine that the recent price weakness is also due to the fall in gold/copper/silver prices too? (or perhaps fears the metals may have further to fall?)

[mattjos] 12/7/2018 11:02

yes, seems bizarre but, was just the same at 10p, 20p and 30p & now at 40p. These round number figures always seem to act as barriers/support areas for consolidation. Frustrating as it may be, they do keep building on the underlying support for the stock as new buyers see the opportunity and take out the sellers.

Not long go now before the Q2 update and the first opportunity to see how we are going with the newly enlarged production capacity

[celeritas] 12/7/2018 10:54

The way its going we'll have more cash that the mkt cap by this time next year.

[celeritas] 12/7/2018 10:50

I know its difficult as it goes against ingrained human nature but the best time to buy is when we have a seller. These sellers have popped up at various times over the last few years and never usually last for long.