Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[el_duderino_7885] 17/3/2017 15:10

They already do stealth QE using the exchange stabilisation fund. Ask yourself how treasuries bonds rates aren't soaring given that foreigners are now net sellers of US treasuries?

Do you have a link?

[zhockey] 17/3/2017 14:44

Has anyone noticed that the us monetary base is on the rise again?

In the absence of QE how is that happening? Stealth QE?

[el_duderino_7885] 17/3/2017 13:57

jBravo - the gold market has changed fundamentally in the last two years. The charts prove this.

The action over the next 3 months is extremely important in determining where we will go for the rest of the year.

We are still a long way from true price discovery, bitcoin is telling us what gold and silver would be doing if the markets weren't so heavily manipulated and gamed.

[jbravo2] 17/3/2017 13:55

The tender was just for the operation of the mine though.
We outsource some of that kind of stuff too. Avoids permanent headcount etc I imagine. Can't see that we'll be involved.

[jbe81] 17/3/2017 13:34

Jbravo, chovdar was up for tender, no result yet. That will be very informative.

[jbravo2] 17/3/2017 13:17

I'm really still not buying this gold going to the moon stuff. Or even into orbit.
We may see 1300 this year but I'm not convinced about anything more than that.

@ferries - yes I was convinced too. I'm now resigned to the fact there's no way we'll get any part of any of AzerGold's properties. The only question is would they want us? I think that is still a possibility. There certainly was a lot of activity for it to come to naught. Is there a possibility that some investors in Azerbaijan are buying shares?

[mattjos] 17/3/2017 13:09

It is all rather frustrating but, am sure we are now past the cold winter weather. What is in the heaps will be released now and the flows into the other treatment processes should no longer be frozen.Remains to be seen if they can fully recover the lost production over the next 6 months or not.The weather is clearly beyond the control of management but, clearer communication on the company strategy is entirely in the management control & this is the consistent frustration I have with the company. That is not say that they are not making efforts to grow the business .. it's just that informal intimation of what is going on is not really an acceptable or professional way of managing things.

[el_duderino_7885] 17/3/2017 13:01

I fully expect gold to reach new highs this year and regain a 14 handle.

We've had higher lows with every rate hike - very good sign plus dollar looks like it is ready to break down.

Hopefully the rise in gold will be sufficient to offset any temporary dips in production here.

[el_duderino_7885] 17/3/2017 12:59

You should Matt I think you singlehandedly took the SharePrice down about 5% with your sells :-).

Yes I hate AIM companies who fail to keep PI's properly informed. Often by the time you find out bad news you are left holding the baby.

Happened to me many times in the past which is why I'm much quicker to take profits these days and sell up.

It used to be that wealth was transferred from the impatient to the patient but often with these miners it turns out the other way around.

[mattjos] 17/3/2017 12:49

I do hope that Reza & co read this bulletin board.The company has a relatively small band of PI's and the comments here should be treated with some respect

[ferries5] 17/3/2017 12:39

Quarterly update due next month. So hopefully we will know where we are with the drilling program and the completion of the water treatment plant. There was talk of employing a Russian drill team for the winter?? If not, I suspect it will be May before we get any meaningful drill results.
The one criticism I have of this company is its shareholder- investor communication. They have known for months about the decline in production, but instead of informing us. They have tried to hide it, and it's backfired on them. Publishing your production figures on Interfax Azerbaijan in Russian is not best practice.
I think I read in the local papers that Chovdar was producing and also that
Qater investors were looking for opportunities to invest in Azerbaijan. Disappointed about Chovdar, I was certain that some sort of deal had been struck. The fact that they could not sell the gold, the release of the reporter who worked for an American backed newspaper, meetings between the President and John Sununu. Was all pointing in that direction. Azergold is a closed company which can have up to 50 investors without disclosure, it says on its website that all the shares are owned by the government, I don't believe it and still think it's a bit iffy

[zhockey] 17/3/2017 11:30

They have never done so in the past, don't hold your breath.

[zhockey] 17/3/2017 11:23

2SP,

That is not altogether surprising considering the weather. They may have mined very little open pit ore and processed sulphide stockpiles. Remember that would show an increase in flotation production which is not included in the media reports. Could be another 1000oz to add.

[el_duderino_7885] 17/3/2017 10:55

Well said Zhockey. I do remain bullish despite exiting as my charts are saying a short term trade on the GDXJ will be more profitable but risk missing out here.

I'll be back in sooner rather than later. The potential here remains enormous. Let's hope for an RNS soon.

[2sporrans] 17/3/2017 10:49

Good post Cannonfodder, though I think zhockey may well have nailed it.

I've just made a quick calc. , based on Q4 production which leads me to conclude that
on the basis of 5.5k-oz/month processed gold, ~1782k-oz would, pro-rata come out of the underground mines - Gadir [q4 seems to be 0 for Gosha]; i.e. 45% of production from agitation leaching.
Assuming this to be unaffected by the weather.
That leaves ~700k-oz output sourced from elsewhere for Feb. 2,500k-oz.
Lets assume heap leaching [only 28% of production in Q4 anyway] to be frozen out to 0; leaves 700k-oz put though the agitation plant/SaRt/flotation, sourced from the open cast mining with grade >1.5g/t.

I guess that it is plausible the higher grade ore from open pit may have stalled for reasons Cannonfodder offers but 700 actual v 3720 'target' to meet a 5,500k-oz monthly total is a virtual stoppage.

Conerning?

[zhockey] 17/3/2017 10:18

I said 18months back that production would be 50k by 2018, looks like it will arrive in 2017. That much was obvious and Bill was alluding to this in his interviews. Hence I am not surprised or disappointed. Ugur will I believe give a bump up in the next few years due to the easy access oxide ore.

But the story here is a $200m plant almost paid for, a load of copper and enough gold to fund exploration in a province with untold potential.

I fear a few bulls have lost faith at the worst possible time.

[terropol] 17/3/2017 10:03

Guys just remember February was very cold...well sub zero. Severe conditions...
Last winter was very mild.
Difficult to mine with temperatures below 10c
March is much better and would expect at list 6000oz.
Keeping my position and may get a few more on this panic selling.

[jbravo2] 17/3/2017 09:57

Spot on cannon.
Exactly a year ago there was much more risk. We were at 4p with much more debt and a small risk of not making it.
In reality we are far removed from that now and 4 times the share price accordingly.
By this time next year there will only be 2 loan payments left.
Where do people think the share price will be then?

Now of course if we only produce 3koz a month all year it will be reasonable to say "lower than 18p", but I don't think that's going to happen.
I await April and hope I get the same opportunity for a bargain as I did last year for my ISA

[cannonfodd3r] 17/3/2017 09:49

Id be slightly more concerned if there wasn't such big trades going through. Some of the trades are huge which only says one thing, Ugur clearly has something to deliver and there is clearly a short term issue in the figures. It could be something as daft as having lots of overburden to remove to get to the ore, after all its a big hill (all be it called copper mountain) and they may have just got to a point where they cant undermine any more so need to top strip. They may have been doing this over the winter when production is rubbish in any case to free up the summer to hit it hard.

The chances of them just running out of gold is slim to not a chance as there is a continual drilling programme as has been discussed previously so they know what they have in the pit/hill.

Also don't forget that this doesn't include what is in the concentrate. Numbers were always higher in the past as the sole processing was through heap leaching, this is simply a side line now and i believe the ore is just run of mine and un crushed on the heap leach pads so any chance of getting any gold from the HL process over the winter is even further reduced.

So in short, either panic and sell or look past the current issue and focus on the possibilities ahead like the big buyers are currently doing

[brasso3] 17/3/2017 09:41

Such a drop in production warrants an RNS IMO. Typical of AAZ to let this linger and then get hit twice by the news post Q1 results!

[jbravo2] 17/3/2017 09:32

The dive in sentiment? No
The production, as others have stated, is poor. Worse than it's been for as long as I can remember. That's a bit worrying, and if you wish, has dented my faith a little but we've seen troughs before. Hopefully it will pick up again.

It is reassuring that we clearly met the payment due at the end of Feb even with this production although it will be interesting to see if we had to borrow anything to do it.

The recent press stories covering AAZ production and talking about Chovdar are interesting.
Clearly AzerGold aren't profitable at the moment. They have a large cost base for 40koz.
They could remove further costs if they wanted to buy us.
A couple of items have also mentioned their future sites and third on their list is the site next to Ordubad.
Does Chovdar have any high grade ore? If so where are they going to process that?

Still lots of questions.
Clearly I'd be more confident if we produced 4kozin both Jan and Feb.
We haven't. That isn't enough in of itself to make me sell .

Sorry for any typos.on phone hard to check post

[csmwssk12hu] 17/3/2017 09:27

Wow 32% down, that's a disaster for any business, any possibility that they have drained the gold almost? As they say nothing last forever gla