Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[yasx] 15/1/2017 13:22

yasX 24 Oct '16 - 07:38 - 4945 of 6466
Mattjos,

Well, a good run the past few days. I sold but hope it goes well for holders. I took the view that the bottom in gold might not be in, and the conservative assessment by the company broker. So far it has headed higher. If it retreats, I am to get in again.
Regards

[yasx] 15/1/2017 13:17

All,

Some months ago I declared sellng at around (from memory) 21/22p or so (having purchased below 17p or so/. I did so because I had expected gold to retreat from the highs of 1350 in the final quarter of 2016 and therefore felt AAZ would get hit along with others. The call on gold was correct, but, what I did not anticipate was that aaz would go on to around 35p only a week or two later. Well, it happens. It thereafter came back to 20p and had given me trading opportunities. For now I am flat.

AAZ has a tendency to fall on publication of numbers, and, if so, I will tuck in again. Longer term investors need not be worried about the current price of 24p or 20p or whatever, since I reckon this has the potential to get above 100p in due course. I will wait to see what the update reveals, and, if it sells off, I will buy some. If not, then so be it.

As for gold, well, I think since the 1120's were hit this has marched higher, but I think we are due to go to at least 1250 in this phase so more to come yet.

[robo21] 15/1/2017 11:42

Jeanesy,
Why do you hold here ?

[jeanesy] 15/1/2017 10:00

Well im expecting year end figures on monday. The lowered production expected for full year was 69-71 K . I have state many times that this will not be met imo. I fear the best we can hope for is 66k. If that is the case then it could be tin hats time early doors. Net debt was expected to be around 30 million. If that is met then that might offset the unmet production( personally I think it will be higher) Let us hope that the copper and silver production is better than expected ! What i am more concerned about is the going forward gold mining grades which have continued to fall. We need some re-assurance that they are not going to continue doing so. I am not expecting any more exploration nor drilling results at this time. Im not even sure that any will be going on due to the very cold weather. All in all , I am a very nervous investor here . I hope that my pessimism is unfounded !! Not long to wait now.

[zhockey] 14/1/2017 22:11

Floatation expansion will be where they invest next IMO. I'm with carsick, they need to drill like crazy.

[catsick] 14/1/2017 18:16

Manat devaluation should be a small boost, I am sure that borrowing usd will become harder so any capex will be much more heavily scrutinized now, I dont think they have a lot planned though now and all very easily covered from the cash being generated....

[mattjos] 14/1/2017 10:16

The most important points for me at present:
- we're back profitable!
- the debt load is manageable and decreasing fast
- we have the effects of recent cost saving initiatives to experience over the course of FY17
- we are back on the exploration trail & have multiple targets already to give updates on and flesh out
- we still have absolutely huge unexplored acreage
- terrific new highly experienced & competent director in Stephen Westhead
- gold at anything over $1,200 is extremely favourable for us
- the CEO remains convinced by the value in the equity, as evidenced by his continuing loan to the company
- on most peer metrics, we remain significantly undervalued and with likely healthy newsflow this year, any of which should act as the necessary catalyst(s) to bring about a significant re-rating

[philo124] 14/1/2017 09:51

Are the Directors paid in $'s ?

[mattjos] 14/1/2017 09:47

I suspect the first part of this year could see the Manat fall quite dramatically further against USD and give us a further benefit on local costs before the Manat starts to stabilise in H2.

[jeanesy] 14/1/2017 08:49

Thanks mattjos. Not sure if that is going to be good or bad news for AAZ and the value of the manat?

[jeanesy] 13/1/2017 18:56

That is my thinking too. Lets hope we get a positive update !!

[mattjos] 13/1/2017 15:17

Monday am news, I assume

[bleepy] 13/1/2017 00:08

Baku. 12 January. REPORT.AZ/The Central Bank's official exchange rate for January 13 was defined at 1,7867 AZN/USD.

[mattjos] 12/1/2017 18:46

Spoke with ur currency broker in London today as sat on a lot of Euros in the business and looking to switch to GB£ at some stage.Little appetite for the £ it seems ... the run up to March and the UK govt serving Article 50 for Brexit obviously has the £ under pressure for the next 7-10 weeks.However, little appetite for the Euro either beyond that date due to perceived risk of Le Penn winning first round French elections.(We had a trade show booked in Paris for March 2017 but it got cancelled by organisers as could not sell the space due to exhibitors wanting to stay away from France & Paris on raised terrorism risks ahead of elections).Broker in question mentioned that he & others in the firm & some clients were taking long positions in gold over last few weeks

[jeanesy] 12/1/2017 18:36

Sadly we could not hold onto the morning gains. On such a good day for POG that makes me very nervous. I hope that the news is released next week and not tomorrow as bad news comes out on a friday! Debt should be down nicely but its the production figures, mining grades and drill news which are equally important going forward.

[jbe81] 12/1/2017 16:53

Copper up 2% today

[zhockey] 12/1/2017 16:06

Wall Street getting tonked, has the paradigm shifted?

[zhockey] 12/1/2017 13:09

Matt did you also not say 2000 by end of 2016?

FWIW I think gold has bottomed too.

[mattjos] 12/1/2017 13:05

I've twice nailed the lows in gold catsick on the basis of the chart so, maybe not dismiss it out of hand

[catsick] 12/1/2017 12:56

I dont think we can assume drilling results will be good, but we can hope they are,At the current gold price we are still going to make plenty of good cashflow, the big rise we are all looking for will come from either a decent find or a decent rise in gold, the find can only come about through doing lots of drilling and the rise in gold I do not believe can be foretold through charting but is going to require something like a decision by the Chinese to up their gold holdings from 2pct of reserves to more like 5-10 pct , that I believe has been decided to some degree and has started to be acted upon as they sell down their treasury holdings, the US holds 70 pct of its reserves in gold, there is not enough gold in the world for the Chinese to attempt that !

[mattjos] 12/1/2017 12:11

Back in 2010, it was the maiden profit and 30% uplift in resources (based on SGS analysis of drilling) that finally caused the share price to break out through 20p and then go on to over 80p over the next 4 months.

This is shaping up like history might repeat itself this year. The catalyst could well be the imminent announcement of a profitable FY16 and an update on Ugur / Bittibulag / Gadir.

Lets see what the next few days brings

[jbe81] 12/1/2017 11:34

From talking to Stephen Westhead at London he was far from concerned by the lack of gold there, zhockey. Expect 2017 drilling results to be very good, and not just one set.

[terropol] 12/1/2017 11:25

Where is next stop for gold? $1250 quite soon??
Zhockey, I know for quite some time you have been questioning the mining production going forward!

I think we have a brilliant management team, and would they have spent all the money to date without them been very confident of the future??

Even if we produced fresh air, £27m valuation on the very low side.

[deanroberthunt] 12/1/2017 11:23

stupid cheap