Anglo American Share Discussion Threads

[pander45] 14/5/2024 09:27

It's backfired.

[pander45] 14/5/2024 09:16

Today's actions by the board have simply made the company more vulnerable. Oh dear.

[pander45] 14/5/2024 09:15

Not looking great

[philanderer] 14/5/2024 08:27

For me it depends if BHP says it's walking away in the next week . How far does the AAL shareprice fall ?

I still think BHP will comeback with a third and final throw before the 22nd , maybe even going hostile.

[cobourg1] 14/5/2024 08:20

What Bloomberg Intelligence Says
“Anglo American’s planned divestment of Anglo Platinum, De Beers, Metallurgical Coal and Nickel may take at least 18 months to complete, and has much of the same execution and timing risk as the BHP bid it rejected. Yet a smaller, more-focused portfolio could draw a wider range of potential suitors once the divestments are completed.”

— Grant Sporre, BI metals and mining analyst

[tuftymatt] 14/5/2024 08:10

Yeah the market doesn't like uncertainty and that's what is keeping it down right now following yesterday's bid rejection.

We have almost seen 2800 so the question I am asking myself is can we get to 2950 in a years time with no takeover? I think that's possible so sub 2800 is a no go and I will hope for 5% share price growth and a divi too from AAL if nothing does happen from BHP.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[juliemara] 14/5/2024 08:07

They had better deliver now!

PS AND FAST!!

[pander45] 14/5/2024 07:33

Hmmmmm beige reaction.

[tuftymatt] 14/5/2024 06:32

Well the strategy is now out so let's see what the market makes of it.

It's a smart move from the companies perspective to fend off a takeover but I still think BHP will digest it then come back with another offer.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[philanderer] 13/5/2024 23:02

Thoughts on Anglo rejecting BHP


There's a likely reason why BHP's parsimonious offers for Anglo American, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets' Sydney branch.

BHP would have to go all out (and enjoy a great deal of luck) to achieve the synergies and cost savings to ensure the takeover is earnings accretive.

"We estimate that greater than $11 billion of synergies would be required for BHP to justify the bid at these levels - almost double our estimates- albeit a narrative of undervalued growth and under-supplied copper markets could be used to justify the transaction," said RBC analyst Kaan Peker.

He estimated that at least US$11 billion of synergies would be required to justify a higher offer than £30 per share based on the current Anglo valuation and long-term metal price assumptions.

However, there are long-dated or early-stage copper growth projects not included in the current Anglo base case, including Los Bronces Underground, expansion of Quellaveco and Collahuasi that could account for US$2.5-3 billion or £1.6-1.9 per share of incremental value.

"With these long-term growth projects included, we estimate US$8-9bn of synergies are required to justify an offer >£30/sh."

And if there was a 10% increase in long-term copper price estimates this would add another US$2.2 billion or £1.4 per share, with these two adding up to a scenario where the top end of estimates would justify an offer above £30 per share.

"Obviously, BHP would be taking on significant project execution risk and copper price risk, under this scenario,"

The market was not much moved by the marginally improved deal, with the shares in both falling 0.2%.

RBC said it see BHP's bid "as a key catalyst to unlock value at Anglo American" and increased its price target to 3,100p.


proactiveinvestors.co.uk

[philanderer] 13/5/2024 18:55

Rejection of BHP’s second bid for Anglo American is unsurprising

Complex proposal will need to be backed by a bigger figure to put board under real pressure

[cobourg1] 13/5/2024 16:48

"Anglo American has accelerated plans for delivery of its standalone strategy and will provide a detailed investor update on 14 May 2024."

Presumably they have been working night and day on this plan and will throw everything including the kitchen sink at it in an attempt to remain independent. It's nice that we don't have too long to wait.

Only two members of Anglo's Board will be offered positions on the Board of the combined company. That will be concentrating a few minds, and they were all doing such a wonderful job as well.

[philanderer] 13/5/2024 16:43

Telegraph..


Deutsche Bank analysts said Anglo could simplify its sprawling empire by fully or partially selling luxury diamond brand De Beers and its fledgling polyhalite mine Woodsmith in North Yorkshire.

BHP offer is all stock. A cash element may prove more appealing to Anglo shareholders.

Liberum analysts said: “Given the emphatic ‘no’ from Anglo American’s board on accepting execution risk of demergers pre-deal, it’s no surprise BHP’s revised offer was rejected.

“Clearly, a successful bid probably requires a much higher premium – one that BHP is probably unwilling to pay.”

[philanderer] 13/5/2024 16:36

Mark Kelly, chief executive of MKP Advisors, said that “BHP are clearly reserving the right to go hostile”.

George Cheveley, portfolio manager at Ninety One, an Anglo and BHP shareholder, said his initial reaction to the revised proposal was that “we need to wait and see what Anglo’s own plan is”.

Analysts at RBC said they estimated an offer above £30 per share would be needed to sway all of Anglo’s shareholders.


FT

[jason29] 13/5/2024 16:09

Hmmm... Was hoping for £30, but frankly not sure we are going to get there now. Let's hope the update tomorrow is decent.....

[no dice] 13/5/2024 15:43

The RNS is fairly unequivocal IMO - an offer that's conditional on the demerger of Amplats and Kumba just isn't acceptable.

[redartbmud] 13/5/2024 15:36

Who is the Looney Tune who posts comments the width of a 4 lane motorway.
Could they please desist in future?

red

[philanderer] 13/5/2024 15:04

From the RNS today....


Anglo American has accelerated plans for delivery of its standalone strategy and will provide a detailed investor update on 14 May 2024.

Under Rule 2.6(a) of the Takeover Code, BHP must by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 22 May 2024, either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Anglo American in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Takeover Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Takeover Code applies.

This deadline will only be extended with the consent of the Takeover Panel in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Takeover Code.

[spier40] 13/5/2024 14:58

looks like 30 is the magic number then the deal will be done gal

[tuftymatt] 13/5/2024 14:07

Yeah £27.53 was never going to cut it and I am surprised BHP didn't come back with £28 something.

I think tomorrow will be interesting between the two CEO's and would then suspect BHP come back with a third and final offer.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[philanderer] 13/5/2024 14:05

Under the potential deal, BHP said it would offer £27.53 a share, including £4.86 in subsidiary Anglo Platinum’s shares and £3.40 in iron ore business Kumba’s shares.

[philanderer] 13/5/2024 13:50

54m ago

13.55 BST

The pressure is now on Anglo to show shareholders how it can deliver more value on its own, says Bloomberg, while BHP will need to improve its offer again for a deal to happen.

Top executives of both companies are at a conference in Miami this week