Anglo African Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[dailylarma] 31/10/2018 14:16

it's been killed off with the cln'sshame about that.just bail when you can not when the rest of you are panning to sell. Will be a big rush for the door. I sense many are waiting for a spike to get out

[croxonopolis] 31/10/2018 14:06

It's rather depressing to see the share price lanquishing where it is when we are so close to news.

Going to be interesting to see the response on oil shows in R1/2

[alexios1201] 31/10/2018 13:50

I haveFind me on twitter and pm @alexios1201

[sep800] 31/10/2018 09:43

lets hope CEO is not already counting on the CLN.s
see some large sells yesterday and another 150 today.
Can the CLN be over ruled by shareholders ?
Do we have an update of the majority shareholders list anyone ?

[ammu12] 30/10/2018 20:18

Money going into yu group

[money4me] 30/10/2018 17:24

sooner i can escape this the better. if we get oil next week i may be out. just getting decimated by the market.

[john henry] 30/10/2018 16:26

Unfortunately that something Sefton can't do. The market is seeing the the Convertible for what it is and pricing accordingly. Convertible will be a drag on sentiment.

[moneylender] 30/10/2018 11:58

R1/R2 towards the end of next week. Its going to be a long wait.

[croxonopolis] 30/10/2018 09:29

The bacon butties part did make me laugh. Does look like he's enjoying the good life does 'ol Dave.

I bought more today. It's a total risk but still have a feeling about Aaog. Also to average down a bit from 10.

It's a pure gamble but still don't expect to see much of a rise in R1/2. I think it's factored in and the chance of dilution will hold it down now.

In for the whole drill, untill it stops turning....

[honestmarty] 30/10/2018 07:15

We are getting very close now to news.

The rise will be very dramatic given the current share price after all the drama.

The update on R1/R2 will put that firmly behind us.

If Sefton can ease off on the bacon butties, cobble together a semi-articulate RNS, I can see 15-16p,even before we hit Mengo, which could potentially be worth 40p.

Important to remember Mengo is an appraisal well, the oil is there.

Djeno and Vanji are more speculative, but reward would be enormous given current mcap.

Exciting times for anyone brave enough to hold.

[croxonopolis] 29/10/2018 16:32

There is a reply on LSE which sums it up. Carrot on a stick. Good old aim.

I'll hang in for the whole drill. But the last week has knocked all my confidence. All these share price predictions are pointless and ridiculous. If money was so easy to be made, we would not be lanquishing at 9.3p. I see a very muted response on R1/r2. Then a drop.

For those that want to stick it out for the whole drill, It's just wait and see time but for new people coming on board, I would be highly skeptical about the share price predictions bounded about here.

[honestmarty] 29/10/2018 16:30

Multiple by .56.
AFTER

We have recouped excess costs incurred.

[sep800] 29/10/2018 16:19

But Why draw down if he disclosed on many occasions we are fully funded for the drill !

Why not wait for all the drill results and then raise ?

Because he must know his chances of success is very low and needs this money to continue new drills in the future,

We have all be led to believe by the CEO we will be cash sufficient no and no fund raising after the last 8p placing

[sep800] 29/10/2018 16:11

jonnyfro

Divide by 56% because that's all they own share price at 22.4 p and thats if the flow rates are increase. I think the CEO had to raise a CLN knowing the first 3 drills will not match their expectation

[jonnyfro] 29/10/2018 14:07

So without a field development plan let's take low end of the risked valuations.

R1/R2 6p
Mengo 18p
Djeno 16p

There's your 40p just from the low end risked valuations

[jonnyfro] 29/10/2018 14:03

The TLP-103 well is targeting three separate reservoir horizons with a range of
risk/reward:
Appraisal of 2mmbbls gross proven reserves in the R1/R2 sands. This is the lowest risk
target of the well given these sands are already producing at Tilapia. We estimate an
NPV for this horizon of 6.3p/sh, assuming plateau production of 250 bopd from 2021
and net reserves of 1.1mmbbls.
Appraisal of an undeveloped discovery in the Mengo sands assigned a 60% Geological
CoS. We have considered both the Best (8.1mmbbls gross) and High (23.8mmbbls
gross) contingent resource cases laid out in the CPR, which we estimate will require
between five and 13 wells to develop. This gives a risked valuation for the Best - High
Mengo cases of 18-45p/sh (unrisked 30-75p/sh), with peak production in 2022 of 2,000
- 6,000 bpd respectively.
The final target is a deeper exploration prospect in the Djeno sands, assigned gross
prospective oil resources of 15.9-42.3mmbbls in the Best and High cases respectively.
This is higher risk (25% CoS) but also much higher reward; discovery wells on adjacent
blocks have flowed at 5,000 bpd from the Djeno sands. To be conservative, we assume
individual well flow rates of 2,500bpd with four to 10 development wells required in the
Best - High resource cases respectively, giving a risked valuation range of 16-39p/sh
(69-159p/sh unrisked) for the Djeno sands

straight from the broker note

[edgar222] 29/10/2018 13:17

If they hit Djeno at 5k BoPD 50p will only be the start of it....

[jonnyfro] 29/10/2018 13:15

Croxonopolis have you read the Finncap broker note on the AAOG website?
COS on Djeno is 25% and it's only that low because of the oil rim
COS on Djeno is better than wildcat exploration in other companies

Yes they'll draw down some of the cash on the CLN's but the higher the share price the fewer the shares that get issued.

Management incentives at 20p
Sister and Miton still in from IPO days

R1/R2 90% COS
Mengo 65% COS
Djeno 25% COS

[moneylender] 29/10/2018 12:28

50p would be awesome but even with djeno it will be a year or more before that sort of value

[honestmarty] 29/10/2018 12:13

Croxon, if we hit djeno and get oil at 5000 BOPD, 50p would be a screaming bargain.
Even Mengo at 500 BOPD, with a development plan for multiple wells would be fair value.

All the previous faffing about and uncertainty has created a great opportunity here.

But, it all comes down to the drill.

And nobody really knows......

[croxonopolis] 29/10/2018 11:54

No way we will see 50p. Cuckooland land talk. You have no idea how big the placing maybe. Uncertainty will keep the price under wraps I'm in till the end of Nov and I hope I eat my words. However, uncertainty will dampen the rises.

50p I personally think is out of the question. I'd be happy with 20p which I think will also be a strech

[jonnyfro] 29/10/2018 11:36

Crox you think they'll place before Djeno?

A Djeno hit and 50p isnt out of the question
R1/R2 and Mengo are appraisal wells

Djeno from neighbouring fields is flowing 5000bopd

The way I see it is use the CLN's to get you to Djeno hit the target and then place much higher up.

[moneylender] 29/10/2018 11:22

You think???