Angle Share Discussion Threads

[atmysignal] 19/7/2024 14:43

Actually, it's best to sit it out. Bones.I'll tell you when I sell and when I buy back in.

[atmysignal] 19/7/2024 14:41

Bones, it's 15p. Not 25p or 35pDeal rns incoming.

[5oletrader] 19/7/2024 14:35

Next week:24th - 28th JulyBIO Asia Taiwan - International Conference & Exhibition • VID:https://youtu.be/kY_zc27-ovI?feature=shared• WEB:https://bioasiataiwan.com-Interestingly:• It would appear ANGLEs Sales Manager/International Team Leader will be attending with RBC Bioscience to do a 'LIVE DEMONSTRATION' of the 'PARSORTIX' Instrument.Some info on RBC Bio:• RBC Bioscience is a leading provider of cutting-edge nucleic acid extraction technologies, offering scalable solutions for diagnostics, forensics, and research.https://www.rbcbioscienceusa.com/about-us/-Good to know when:• ANGLE has SUCCESSFULLY established an INTERNATIONAL NETWORK of oncology focused distribution partners in ... ASIA-PACIFIC etc.• These PARTNERS will OPEN routes to market and distribution channels for Parsortix instruments and consumables GLOBALLY.

[bones698] 19/7/2024 13:49

It's very 50/50 atm for me, I can see the upside but the profit warning is stopping me buying as I see an oppurtunity to get in lower. Dermot adding contradicts that but then only 1 or 2 deals to be announced in the remainder of H2 says it's almost certain to miss revenues.

I can see from a long term holders view no point selling now, completely understand that it's what impact the revenue miss will have on the share price that's open to debate I think. All we have to go off is last year's one and what happened there tbh.

I can wait for now, did well out of Gdr so comfortable waiting and see how it plays out here

[adw198] 19/7/2024 13:07

Yes you’re right some was rolled over in 2024, which seems a common theme - hence our shared concerned that even a deal landing today wont be in this years revenue. As I mentioned investors may take the view the year doesn’t matter and that wouldn’t be an argument without merit…

[bones698] 19/7/2024 12:21

I wil have a look back but I recall the figures for the revenue were somewhat offset with revenues carrying over into the following year etc but I know it was only. A minor miss on revenues compared to what u think this years is heading for.

Sandy I know you also spoke to AN and he said only one or 2 deals will get signed in the remaining months of 2024.. If we take what he says as accurate that makes it even more challenging to hit the £5m extra revenue imo. As I explained even stage 2 deals aren't that size if we listen to what AN has told us.

I know there is the possibility of a rabbit out the hat but I'm struggling to see one that will be big enough to change my logic at this point.

If I recall there wa also mention of 3 new deals at the same time as the last warning which got ignored. I guess we will see I'm happy to stay out and risk missing out for now though, history has taught me to be cautious when it comes to what AN says and what actually happens.

Thnaks for your hard work with the agm notes and sleuthing as always in ts been a constant source of information on AGL.

Adw I'll get back to you on the revenue miss from. Last time I recall the discussions around it at the time and sure when it wa sworked out it was 200k in the end but will check.

[radderssandy] 19/7/2024 09:57

Thanks Mark.

Edit: just to add a post (courtesy of JJ) that it is “Dermot Keane’s personal investment. Great to see him retaining the faith and upping his stake significantly” (from 4.90% to 8.09%).

[markymark33] 19/7/2024 09:39

x Goldman Sachs and had his own hedge fund - Plexus Partners

[5oletrader] 19/7/2024 08:55

Balanced view and fair points as always @radders - you are appreciated here.-Q - For you, or anyone else with knowledge. Dermot KEANE? What's his background etc?

[radderssandy] 19/7/2024 08:33

Morning Bones,

If you are referring to the January 2023 business update (which did the most share price damage) I think the revenue miss was actually higher - 500k. But there were two other factors, imo, that contributed to the severity of the share price decline.
1. The statement that the revenue for 2023 was expected to be “MATERIALLY221; below current market expectations.
2. Cost cutting measures resulted in the moth balling of their Hycead Ziplex platform and the change to a focus on third party molecular platforms. This was a huge change in strategy and was clearly going to have other ramifications on the business - the ovarian and prostate assays etc - whilst the third party platforms were/are evaluated.

The company has moved on, in a positive way. The AstraZeneca contract was a turning point for me. It is the number one company in the FTSE100 and a global pharma company. The pivot to large pharma with big budgets, may have been dictated by necessity, but in the long term may prove to be the best outcome for the company (albeit painful at the time for LTHs). Just my opinion, but it is a better policy not to be totally reliant on smaller pharma companies whose budgets are so vulnerable to adverse market conditions. Talk of discussions with six other household names doesn’t feel like rhetoric.

Illumina is looking increasingly promising.

The distributor sales reps are well incentivised and have added content to sell with the Portrait+ Kit, CellKeep etc.

We have see from the two recent TR1’s that Dermot Keane & Global Frontiers have added to their holdings. They must be confident of the outlook.

I agree that £5m for H2 is challenging. Perhaps worth bearing in mind though, that AN said to me on the day of the AGM, that they “typically see” the second half of the year as being significantly higher revenue than the first half. If they do miss their revenue forecast, then I hope the blow will be considerably softened by good news.

[muffster] 19/7/2024 08:31

Bones 698 should be FOMO 698.This will fly as soon as new deals announced.Global Frontiers increasing their position gives me greater confidence.

[adw198] 19/7/2024 08:05

@bones

Can I check which revenue warning you referencing when you say it was only £200k?

I’m referring to November 23 that said
“The Company expects revenue recognised for 2023 will be c. £2.2 million, which is an increase of 120% over revenue achieved in 2022 but below current market consensus of c. £3.0 million”.

So I’ve got a £800k miss, so they only
Achieved 70%. If they announced a similar one this year it would be circa £4.5m.

I don’t have a clue where even the £4.5m is conceivably coming from and thus envisage a bigger miss. I expect a significant crash at that point and a possible buying opportunity. Like you, I’m prepared to accept I could be wrong and miss out.

[atmysignal] 19/7/2024 07:37

They just raised funds at 15pNeeds a spike to reward That's the way it goesNews now overdueDon't overthink these things It's really simple

[bones698] 19/7/2024 06:59

Adw I'm interested to see how they play it this time. The last profit warning was a miss of 200k and had plenty of positives in the rns but all that was ignored and the share price got mulleted.

Will they release good news before it and boost the share price only to then see it get savaged on a profit warning soon after, or get the bad news out the way then have a couple of decent news releases?
Obviously there are not options but doesn't seem much point announcing good news if a profits warning comes soon after.

Either way I'll remain on the sidelines for now, it could be a mistake for sure there's always that chance but alps it could be a great oppurtunity too. The aim gamble is always fun. What's becoming clear is that holding shares for years isn't the best way to make money on aim anymore, simply to many negatives and the odds are stacked against investors. Funding issues ar making it hard for any small company to raise funds and investors are getting hammered as a result. Fair play 15p wasn't bad compared to many.

[adw198] 18/7/2024 23:40

Bones is right and the big point that either hasn’t been digested or more likely is being ignored is that even IF a massive deal lands tomorrow it’s exceptionally unlikely the revenue will land H2.
In fairness if that type of multi million deal lands then there’s a fair argument to say whether it’s booked in this year or not isn’t crucial, but we sort of heard that last year. They need to get a handle on what’s coming and when - or face the consequences of vague and over ambitious projections.

Armysignal has seemingly just admitted he sold his entire holding here last month. Perhaps he could tell us why, for how much and when he bought back in. Either that or everyone could just realise he’s a liar who is just trying to trick people.

[atmysignal] 18/7/2024 22:52

I'm expecting a couple rns's before September. Should see a spike here by then. Penny pitching at 15p. Not worth it imo. If it was in the mid high 20s I would take your point, but at 15p? Worth my big toe in here

[atmysignal] 18/7/2024 22:49

I buy and I sell. I do that often. It's called trading. I move around quickly. You are referring to trades I did a month ago. Wow. That's funny.

[bones698] 18/7/2024 20:20

Atm it's hard to see where the required revenues will come from. We all know even adw, that there is the potential for some large deal with AGL nobody denies that but the relaity thius far hasn't shown the big numbers are coming. Even stage 2 with the likes of AZ and eisai are for 1-3 m and they aren't at that stage with them yet. Illumia could be but seems more like a gradual increasing deal selling to their clients so not a fixed deal.

Then you have to consider that we are welll past half way in 2024 and the revenues won't them all be added into this year's numbers but mostly rolll over to next year. The value of the contracts spread out over the length of the deal announced. With that said finding over 5m in revenues looks a long shot.

I suspect a revenue miss is coming and we all know the impact that could have on the share price here. There's some conflicting signals with dermot increasing his holding and illumia panels being worked on with news on them soon according to AN. There has been a lot of progress made, the deals with AZ are not to be sniffed at and the first one is due end of October so we will see if that translates into a bigger deal as intimated by AN in the presentations.

For me the odds are on a revenue miss but there is always the chance of the rabbit out of the hat with AGL. The last revenue miss was by a mere 200k which resulted in a drop from around 40p down to around 15p. For me this might explain why they raised money recently too but also they raised money to avoid a going concern on the accounts.

Its all part of the game aim is a big gambling wheel, getting the timing right is always a big part of how well your investments do. For now I'm out and looking for a point to re-enter. The interims aren't too far away in september so I might wait to see what they say in them.

[atmysignal] 18/7/2024 16:03

Adw198 How many cats have you kicked today?None, by sounds of it.

[paul planet earth 1] 18/7/2024 13:30

On paper at the current bid, just under 14%. But dont let that stop you spouting garbage

[adw198] 18/7/2024 13:25

Atmysignal..the same poster who threatens to leak a former Angle employees appraisal lecturing on morals.

The same crank who last week bragged he’d spoken to the NOMAD about a price prediction and basically lies about his investments. But a popular poster here.

Keep it coming mate :)

[atmysignal] 18/7/2024 13:17

Adw198I bet you're the kind of person that would kick a cat in its stomach when no ones looking. You really are a nasty piece of work.

[adw198] 18/7/2024 13:11

How much are you down here Paul?