Andrada Mining Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 25/8/2023 08:57

Yes, "all" hinges on the strategic partner and their view of forward prices for Tin and Lithium.
The obvious question, in my view, for a Lithium investor is will they want to "hedge" their investment with a tin/tantalum by-product or would they prefer to be a pure Lithium investor?
And how will the CEO manage this potential conflict, strategically or tactically?

[3ootuk] 25/8/2023 07:33

I think we've been lucky that the higher tin price supported the UIS expansion. At current prices they might not have got the funding to expand as rapidly, getting the AISC down has been crucial.
Next up will be the lithium partner, hopefully.

[trickydickytwo] 25/8/2023 07:30

It might be 5 years old now but that's a blink of the eye in the mining game. Still relevant and worth remembering.

TDT

[nicosevos] 25/8/2023 06:35

Lithium is no better, halved in recent weeks.
gla
Edit, $55k/mt to $27k/mt

[sogoesit] 25/8/2023 06:11

If tin is break-even there’s zero by-product credit for Lithium in aggregate.
Let’s hope that by the time the Lithium strategy gets executed the tin price is better than $25k/t.

[3ootuk] 24/8/2023 20:00

The tin price is holding this back.
A pity there wasn't breakeven given increasing output, but we are in a large state of flux with expansions in all areas and associated spend before payback.
Could do with an updated presentation based on current prices.
China isn't really opening up again as the rest of the world bumps along trying to avoid recession so expect tin to be depressed for a while. It might revert to historic prices where the tin just covers the costs.
Lithium ramp up is key now to drive profit and not the free carry at the higher tin price.

[dunns_river_falls] 23/8/2023 14:59

Perking up after weeks in the dolldrums. September just around the corner and hopefully some game changing news on the way

[jelignite] 16/8/2023 06:22

Https://www.research-tree.com/research/95_8d85c971-b4a1-40d5-b733-69408cb02de5/referrer/GG00BD95V148/uid/Thanks to SKM

[3ootuk] 15/8/2023 16:11

The EU is highly dependent on single countries for key materials such as Magnesium (China, 97%), Lithium (Chile, 97%), Iridium (South Africa, 93%) and Niobium (Brazil, 92%).
The Critical Raw Materials Act aims to ensure no third country provides more than 65% of the Union’s annual consumption of any raw material.
Diversification to a relatively well governed country like Namibia looks very likely.

[dunns_river_falls] 15/8/2023 09:46

AV tweet FWIW

Great to have completed a significant financing for @Andrada_Mining today. This creates an incredibly strong balance sheet that will enable rapid execution on all our #lithium and #expansion projects. Orion Resource Partners is a market leading, resource investment fund.

[sogoesit] 15/8/2023 09:29

Thanks for your response and enlightening views 3ootuk.
I can now see the context better in which the funding process is being executed.
I await the "plat principal" in due course, following "l'entree" bien sur!
Cheers!

[3ootuk] 15/8/2023 09:00

Getting Orion on board is more of an "amuse bouche". The financing does accelerate all our proposed production streams, and, if the relationship works, opens a dialogue for future larger funding.
You can see how long these deals take to organise. There's a lot of effort gone in to securing multiple finance streams rather than be reliant on one funder who may suffer problems if their own.
This must also provide confidence to any JV partner that production and financing targets are being met.

[sogoesit] 15/8/2023 08:10

Hmmm...
I assume this funding is separate from the "other" arrangements, whatever they may be, that Barclays are working on?
For clarity, what do folks think the "Barclays arrangements", whatever they may be, will look like? Will there be additional funding, potentially other Royalty Stream takes etc. etc. or just, at best, offtake agreements on the Lithium side?

The Royalty agreement with Orion on tin means, of course, less distributions to shareholders from my understanding on a quick read. How "Nice" is that and can we expect similar for the Lithium stream when that gathers momentum?

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 15/8/2023 07:14

Fingers crossed. I am a happy holder even with a recession looming.

[dunns_river_falls] 15/8/2023 07:02

Still here. Hopefully we can have some news on the tantalum and lithium separation plants now. Need the tide to turn over the next few months with news on the lithium JV partnership hopefully one catalyst

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 15/8/2023 06:58

Just me then.

[jelignite] 15/8/2023 06:20

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ATM/orion-us-25-million-funding-package-update/16083285Gla

[lasata] 08/8/2023 16:50

6 million at 6.90p trade...

[trickydickytwo] 03/8/2023 14:25

Sogoesit

I presume you have seen the PEA and the 205Mt. resource estimate? A large part of that is non-JORC compliant but this presentation explains why.



The Q&A session towards the end covers the difficulty of proving up course grained pegmatites to the normal JORC standard. It seems they are going to proceed without doing any further work to prove up the pegmatites to JORC at Uis. The unfortunate consequence of that decision is their MRE is routinely referred to as being only 81Mt when in reality its 205Mt.

You might find this document of interest. The PEA 205Mt comes from only a fraction of the pegmatites at Uis and doesn't include anything for Spodumene Hill or Lithium Ridge.



This study doesn't cover lithium being largely concerned with tin but it does give a very good indication of the extent of the pegmatites on ML134.

The other issue when it comes to trying to compare Andrada to say Patriot or Pilbara is grade. Neither of these two project have tin. The lithium equivalent grade if you factor in the tin puts Uis at about 1.20%.

If you consider Andrada's MRE, inclusive of non JORC, and grade, factoring in the tin, then 205Mt at 1.20% compares far more favourably on the Patriot Battery Metals bubble map presentation than currently.

TDT

[sogoesit] 03/8/2023 12:49

Yes, TDT, I saw the negative Li20 AISC cost on the Mining Indaba Presentation from Feb 2023 when I was looking at tin AISCs (which were high at the time).
It's on a slide somewhere in the middle of the presentation.
Here:


If the bulk of the revenue is from Lithium concentrate then it will make sense that ATM becomes a Lithium miner and the tin will be the by-product credit kicker.
Maybe tin is the "cherry on top"??

Anyway, I am familiar with by-product credits in the mining of, especially, copper (or gold) where they make a significant difference to profitability.
Eg. ANTO has gold and moly; Copper Mountain has gold etc. etc.

I take your points about the specific lithium ores. I am a newbie to this type of mineral and am learning as I gather more info. so am completely unfamiliar, not to say ignorant, about the relative merits of the various ore bodies. So still a ways to go as this testing and drilling opens up the resource to measurement and, as you say, lithium mining appears a lot more complicated in its mining never mind how it is then refined for end uses (and thus the cost competitiveness of each unique resource).

As someone has previously mentioned on this thread ATM management are spending significant amounts of time and money on getting the metallurgical process right for the discovered ores and testing that in the pilot project.

[ukgeorge] 03/8/2023 09:57

Japan looks to build EV supply chains in Africa

• Japan's government plans to work with three African nations to develop supply chains for cobalt and other minerals critical in making EV batteries (Nikkei)

• Japan is looking to diversify its sources of critical minerals, including lithium, to enhance economic security and counter China's growing investment in African countries.

• The Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC), the state-owned resource explorer, intends to sign a memorandum of understanding with Zambia soon, and will finalise plans with Congo and Namibia based on preliminary agreements reached with the two countries.

[trickydickytwo] 03/8/2023 09:35

Sogoesit

I hear what you say about grade but I’m starting to wonder if, in Andrada’s case, it’s not a bit more complicated than that.

The Patriot and Pilbara presentations aren’t slow in highlighting their positions relative to their peers. They make the most of their grades and MRE as you would expect but it seems to me that it’s a bit more nuanced than that. This is an interesting read.

hxxps://aigjournal.aig.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/N2016-001-Scoggings-et-al.-Reporting-Exploration-Results-and-Mineral-Resources-for-lithium-mineralised-pegmatites_v2.pdf

Page 7 lists out a series of pointers to consider on a lithium pegmatite project. The first in the list is of particular relevance to Andrada in my opinion.

a. what mineral species are present;

Neither Patriot nor Pilbara mention tin in their presentations. If you look at Patriots drill results tin is noticeable by its absence. Likewise Pilbara.

That leads me to the comments AV has made on several occasions about lithium being the cherry on top. What does he mean by that? I think this illustration explains where he is coming from.



I only know of one other company that has presented a negative AISC for their main metal and that’s Norilsk Nickel. The revenue from their PGMs covers the cost of producing their nickel plus some. That’s what we have with Andrada. The tin covers the cost of producing the lithium. How do you factor that in when comparing Uis to what Patriot or Pilbara have? As for the MRE that’s about to shoot up from 81Mt to 205Mt so they’ll be leapfrogging everybody in that regard.

If you are not particularly impressed with current tin grades, then check this out.

Listen from 11 minutes 35 seconds.



Historical tin grades of 28%!!!!! The Brandberg West license still has some way to go before it’s brought into production but the potential there is clear.

Back to lithium grade I think it would serve Andrada to calculate “equivalent” figures in the same way that some other polymetallic project do. Reduce it down to a lithium equivalent. That way you have something that not only bolsters Andrada’s position in relation to its peers but makes it easier for investors to see where we really stand in the rankings.

I think the cherry on top is an awful lot more attractive than it first appears.

TDT