Andrada Mining Share Discussion Threads

[3ootuk] 17/7/2023 20:38

The Germans said their workshops and corporate decision making processes might take 2 years...Europe needs to up its game to rapid decision making or lose out.
Any listed company could be bought out by a concert party of Chinese companies buying in the open market. We know AIM isn't too fussed about rules so any group could acquire shares up to a reportable level, agglomerate them, then make a bid.

[trickydickytwo] 17/7/2023 19:59

I suspect most of you have picked up on this already but for those who haven’t listen to the below AV presentation/interview at the Geological Society of South Africa. There’s an interesting comment 54 minutes and 20 seconds in where AV contrasts interest shown in Andrada by a visiting Chinese party to a German one. The anecdote would only be amusing if it weren’t for the comment he lets slip about the reaction of the Chinese. He says they offered to buy Andrada and that the figures offered were, in his words, “eye watering”.



Scroll through to 54 minutes and listen from there. The quality of the recording isn’t great, but you can clearly hear what he says if you listen. Bear in mind he's speaking to geologists here and not investors.

I wonder what the figures offered were and what it would have taken for him to say yes? Everything, after all, has a price.

TDT

[sogoesit] 15/7/2023 17:48

Vehicle manufacturers are getting into the vertically integrated game to access raw materials.
This one, backed by Glencore, Stellantis and Volkswagen, is setting up to buy copper and nickel mines.



Who knows, someone might go hunting for Lithium...

[dunns_river_falls] 15/7/2023 15:01

Mentioned by Royston Wild on the Motley Fool



Purchasing lithium stocks could be another good way to build a winning portfolio. Demand for the silvery-white metal looks set to boom as sales of electric vehicles take off.

Goldman Sachs believes there will be 73m of these vehicles on the world’s roads by 2040. Yet the current mine development pipeline suggests that lithium supply will struggle to keep up with demand, at least over the next decade. In this landscape, producers of the metal should be able to command a premium price for their product.

Andrada Mining (LSE:ATM) is one lithium stock I’m considering buying to capitalise on this. It owns the Uis lithium mine in Namibia, an asset from where it already produces large amounts of tin and from where it recently made its first bulk lithium concentrate sale.

Andrada has described Uis as “a globally significant lithium and tin resource.” Current mineral resource estimates suggests it contains 138m tonnes, but exploration work is ongoing to lift this figure to 200m.

The AIM company also owns a string of other exciting exploration and development assets in Namibia. Testing at its Spodumene Hill project has also shown high-grade lithium intersections that “suggest the presence of significant spodumene mineralisation.”

Investing in African mining companies carries extra risk for investors. Political instability can be commonplace in the region and mining operations can be disrupted as a result. But on balance I think this stock could be a great way to make large long-term returns.

[ukgeorge] 12/7/2023 16:43

Roll on the next leg up, then some transformational news!

[trickydickytwo] 12/7/2023 15:45

5,500,000 trade at 7.60p - £418,000. That's a fairly sizeable slug.

TDT

[dunns_river_falls] 12/7/2023 15:39

Tin price flying.
$29,130 + 4.2%

[nicosevos] 10/7/2023 07:35

C&P Twitter

Anthony Viljoen@AnthonyViljoen 2h

The #tin price having a bit of a rip of late.

@Andrada_Mining recently published a circa $15k/t cost of production and dropping as

we get more tonnage through the plant. #lithium to come soon as well.

Great chart @MinerDeck

[nesty1760] 09/7/2023 22:57

Absolutely staggering, but like I said we will be able to see the full innings, before being bought out, though if the stuff is in the yard, then surely that will take into account any would be offer?

I just hope AV does deals which benefits us all, I suppose the first sign will be September, when the investment partner is concluded.

All for a £113 million market cap at present, just ludicrous.

[trickydickytwo] 09/7/2023 22:02

I forgot to add the LCE figure derived from a gross resource of 205Mt will be in the region of 3.67Mt Multiply that figure by $42,500/tonne and you end up with $155.975B.

That's for the lithium carbonate alone.

TDT

[trickydickytwo] 09/7/2023 19:12

109,400 tonnes at an average grade of 0.14% produces 153.16 tonnes. Might not seem a lot but:-

1g = $5.70¢
10g = $57
1Kg = $5,700
1T = $5,700,000

A mere $873m. That will take care of the coffee and biscuit kitty.


TDT

[trickydickytwo] 09/7/2023 18:28

Yes, I saw that. its valued in grams because to do so in kilos would take up far too much space on the page.

TDT

[dunns_river_falls] 09/7/2023 17:56

Maybe you should also do some calcs on the Rubidium listed in the latest resource estimates. No idea if its a typo, but if not then that is by far the most valuable element.

[trickydickytwo] 09/7/2023 17:02

dunns_river_falls

If you look at page 8 of the May 2023 presentation it clearly states 1.45Mt of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent). In other words the 81Mt of petalite, when reduced to a lithium carbonate equivalent, produces 1.45Mt of lithium carbonate. How is that worked out? On page 8 they state 81Mt at 0.73% which produces 591,300 tonnes of lithium oxide. The factor for converting lithium oxide into lithium carbonate is 2.473 so 591,300 x 2.473 = 1.46Mt. LCE. They've used 1.45Mt in the presentation but I suspect that's them simply rounding down.

If you then take a look at this web site:-

hxxps://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

you will see a price for lithium carbonate.

hxxps://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium

Lithium carbonate is priced in Renminbi but 307,500RMB/tonne works out to be $42,500/tonne.

Andrada's presentation clearly states 1.45Mt of LCE. That means 1,400,000 tonnes x $42,500/tonne = $61.625B

Bear in mind that's from a gross resource of only 81Mt. They're currently in the process of increasing that to 205Mt.

Has that just mucked up your Sunday :-)

TDT

[trickydickytwo] 09/7/2023 16:37

I’d like to put this out there to see what everybody else thinks.

The below link is taken from page 8 of the May 2023 presentation.



The area highlighted by the largest red box confirms the following metal quantities derived from a gross resource of 81Mt.

Gross resource - 81Mt
Tin – 120kt
LCE – 1.45Mt
Tantalum – 6.96Kt

On the same page you will see a reference to a current resource of 138Mt, outlined in red, and the target resource of 205Mt also outlined in red. The figure of 205Mt is 153% higher than the 81Mt the metal quantities have been derived from. Assuming the grades are consistent at the Uis license, and I believe they are, then a 205Mt gross resource would produce the following: -

Gross resource – 205Mt
Tin – 303.6Kt
LCE – 3.67Mt
Tantalum – 17.61Kt

I believe the 205Mt figure will come from the pegmatites highlighted in the link posted above. You can find more information on how the 205Mt was arrived at on pages 5 and 6 of the 26th. April 2022 PEA.



The area the 205Mt gross resource is from is somewhere between 12sq. km and 15sq. km (you can just about make out a 1km marker beside the legend on the right hand side). The ML134 license area in total is 200sq. km so it seems to me that license ML134 has lots more to give.

The real kicker here though is the value. Current market prices as of 07/07/2023 for the three metals: -

Tin - $28,000/tonne
LCE (Lithium carbonate equivalent) - $42,500/tonne
Tantalum - $150,000/tonne

If you do the maths you come up with an insane in ground value for the three metals from what is likely to be a modest gross resource of 205Mt relative to the actual potential of Uis. Now I appreciate that in ground values are somewhat meaningless but if you factor in the fact that we have a reasonable idea of what current C1, C2 and AISC figures are and that there is upside from proposed economies of scale and ore sorting to come then it seems to me the potential here is truly exceptional.

And all of that is before you consider the potential of the other licenses.

Please feel free to kick around the above, pull it apart where appropriate and correct what must be glaring errors because an in-ground value of US$167B is of the scale.

Note. No allowance has been made for mining loss or any loss during processing or conversion.

TDT

[dunns_river_falls] 09/7/2023 14:57

Completely agree with the potential. I think for the proved tin alone at Uis, the value of metal in the ground was about $1bn. And that is based on only the V1 / V2 pegmatites. Then add in the indicated and inferred tin and the value runs into the billions. And there are 180 more pegmatites to explore. Then add the value of the lithium. Even at just $4k per tonne for the 147kt of measured and we are looking at another $600m of value. So what could be the value of metals at Uis on its own? $10bn with a bit more proved up for sure.

As AV tells us, this is a world class mine.

The value unlocked from selecting a partner will be key to us seeing the serious upside in share price $100-200m to cover some serious mine expansion and the game really is on.

[nesty1760] 09/7/2023 13:15

I think the potential here is just plain mouth watering. I think in time 35p be well cheap. The thing I am overall concerned about, isn’t about doubt if ATM will achieve these targets, but more the fact will we see them, if it gets sold off too cheaply. IMHO, shares like this don’t come along too often, I am in this for +50p, I would like to make a killing here, without having to participate chasing AIM ever again!

[bikersteve] 08/7/2023 10:17

Thanks for posting on the LSE

[bikersteve] 07/7/2023 18:38

Jelignite, could you please post this on the LSE site. Thanks

[jelignite] 07/7/2023 16:18

Andrada Mining ("ATM") has released results from the first drill programme on the B1 and C1 pegmatites, within licence ML129, also known as the Spodumene Hill Project. Sitting ~15km SW of ATM's flagship Uis Project, Spodumene Hill is thought to be mineralogically similar and could provide a satellite ore source for the current Phase 1 tin-tantalum circuits and potential future commercial lithium plant. With surface sampling in 2022 having shown the presence of spodumene mineralisation – which sells at a premium to the petalite present at Uis – the 2023 exploration programme was designed to upgrade historical resources of tantalum and tin, whilst proving continuity at depth and establishing average grades of lithium. The results confirmed depth potential and highlighted zones of very attractive lithium grades (>2% Li2O in places). While the programme provides a relatively small sample of preliminary, shallow holes, ATM sees scope for ore sorting to provide a high grade pre-concentrate for a future lithium processing plant. Meanwhile, tantalum grades were up to 2,742ppm and averaged ~280ppm, more than 3x the grade at Uis. ATM has initiated a metallurgical programme to define an optimal flowsheet for lithium, tantalum and tin from Spodumene Hill. The imminent completion of a lithium pilot plant at Uis could assist in this process and, along with ATM's ongoing strategic funding process, is a key upcoming catalyst to close the 79% discount to our GBp 35/sh target price. Initial glimpse into the potential of Spodumene Hill Project ATM completed 1,159 m of diamond drilling over seventeen drill holes on B1/C1, with all holes intersecting mineralised pegmatites. Highlights include hole B1_01 which intersected 14.52 m at 1.38% Li2O, 285 ppm Ta and 0.131% Sn from a depth of 15.48 m, including a 5m subinterval at 2.32% Li2O, and hole C1_04, which intersected 11.06 m at 0.81% Li2O, 1101 ppm Ta and 0.033% Sn from a depth of 13.59 m to 24.65 m. In addition to the visible lithium content, the intersections highlight the tantalum potential of the area, with the highest grade returned reaching over 2,700ppm. We note licence ML129 sits within 'truckable' distance from existing processing facilities at Uis, including a recently constructed tantalum recovery circuit, suggesting potential upside by blending higher-grade tantalum feeds. Following positive pegmatite intersections, the company will concentrate on defining the extent of these zones both laterally and with depth, as well as launching a metallurgical programme to explore the optimal beneficiation process, which we believe is likely to involve ore-sorting to produce a higher lithium grade pre-concentrate. Lithium test programme on track As detailed in our previous note, ATM announced it has produced the first saleable bulk lithium concentrate from the off-site pilot test, using dense medium separation ("DMS"). The encouraging petalite concentrate is being tested for conversion to lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, alongside provisional completion of an offtake agreement, targeted for Q3 CY'23. Additional beneficiation technologies available to ATM include froth flotation and sensorbased ore sorting, which could unlock process efficiencies. Construction of the onsite pilot plant is expected to complete imminently, with commissioning anticipated in the coming weeks; as such, we believe Uis could generate early revenue from lithium, later this year. (H&Pe ~US$6.2m petalite sales vs US$5m20m guidance for FY24E). The new pilot plant could also be used to test run batches of ore from Spodumene Hill, accelerating the metallurgical programme initiated post these drilling results. Valuation: Mar'24E GBp35/sh TP implies 373% upside We believe the market continues to underappreciate the long-term potential of Uis, especially in comparison to lithium peers and given its near-term profitability with £12m EBITDA in FY Feb'24E (H&Pe). Based on a US$1,200/t petalite price assumption we derive a DCF-based, risked valuation for ATM of 35 GBp per share, implying 373% upside.

[jelignite] 07/7/2023 15:30

Https://12ft.ioThis can help sometimes getting past a paywall.Gla

[martinfrench] 07/7/2023 12:01

no details of the strategic partnership yet, and AV would be mad to set up an open ended agreement for all our sites, would be crazy.

therefore if strategic (and we dont necessarily need a kodal style deal though for our size we could) but rather an offtake upfront deal.

AV likes to do things in a modular way (so says mike rawlinson) so he might do bigger DMS plant.

would be very unimpressed if he does a stake deal in all our acreage (just no need to as we have a huge amount)


unless the deal is from tesla or major mining company and is just mindblowing