Andrada Mining Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 18/7/2023 08:32

Would have preferred to see the debt in USD in alignment with underlying economics but 12%, which can be found on the markets, is not too bad for a "quick fix".

[earwacks] 18/7/2023 07:48

The market doesn’t like surprises. Plenty of RNS talking to Barclays and agreement for loan facilities from Namibian bank, so not clear why the sudden loan note route, because of temporary delay fro a financial source. Probably better than another placing though and the ability to act quickly and decisively . Great deal for the loan noters who will probably be delighted to convert to shares eventually. All in all a satisfactory short term fix

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 18/7/2023 06:46

Yes, decisive action beats denial any day. I will be disappointed if the market punishes us for this but I guess it might, at least a bit, until clearer thinking prevails. Contrast another of mine, UOG, where market punishment for its RNS this morning will be well deserved.

[3ootuk] 18/7/2023 06:29

I suppose it's a race to keep to the expansion timetable. So far the company has talked the talk and walked the walk. Lack of financing could hit projects hard when equipment, materials, and labour have all been booked in anticipation of financing being ready.
Not ideal, but, given the circumstances, practical.
I imagine this fall back position has been on the back burner for a while as a just in case scenario.

[kaos3] 18/7/2023 06:22

12% and TWO warrants for each pound wow

[3ootuk] 18/7/2023 06:14

Hopefully larger financing will be completely shortly, but good to see money raised from investors with skin in the game rather than unrelated finance houses.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 18/7/2023 06:05

Happy with that - the less dilution the better. The alternative to this stopgap was clearly punishment by the market.

[3ootuk] 17/7/2023 21:24

From the presentation, several months old now.
Again V1/V2 one of the largest tin/lithium deposits, and might be 3x larger than current resource estimates.
Resources like this only come round once or twice in a career.
Actual resource production tested rather than just numbers on a spreadsheet that don't materialise.
Chinese massively expanding their lithium conversion processes to handle different feeds, but don't have the feeds so buying up resources. Chinese have open cheque book.
UIS phase 2 will be in top few producing lithium mines, UIS phase 1 in top 10.
Tin production will pay mining costs so lithium aisc will be negative.
Brandenburg West tin/tungsten/copper/gold several km long, probably another processing unit to ore sort.
Very strong ESG principles attractive to Western companies.
Ore sorting could improve feed grades by a factor of several times.
Very hard to define pegmatites to jorc standards due to jorc requirements, need new definition of linking bulk sampling to production output. UIS pegmatites unusually widely spread and uniform.
Side question about Cornish tin. Mines need dewatering. Probably can't get aisc low enough given history of bringing other mines back in to use.

[3ootuk] 17/7/2023 19:38

The Germans said their workshops and corporate decision making processes might take 2 years...Europe needs to up its game to rapid decision making or lose out.
Any listed company could be bought out by a concert party of Chinese companies buying in the open market. We know AIM isn't too fussed about rules so any group could acquire shares up to a reportable level, agglomerate them, then make a bid.

[trickydickytwo] 17/7/2023 18:59

I suspect most of you have picked up on this already but for those who haven’t listen to the below AV presentation/interview at the Geological Society of South Africa. There’s an interesting comment 54 minutes and 20 seconds in where AV contrasts interest shown in Andrada by a visiting Chinese party to a German one. The anecdote would only be amusing if it weren’t for the comment he lets slip about the reaction of the Chinese. He says they offered to buy Andrada and that the figures offered were, in his words, “eye watering”.



Scroll through to 54 minutes and listen from there. The quality of the recording isn’t great, but you can clearly hear what he says if you listen. Bear in mind he's speaking to geologists here and not investors.

I wonder what the figures offered were and what it would have taken for him to say yes? Everything, after all, has a price.

TDT

[sogoesit] 15/7/2023 16:48

Vehicle manufacturers are getting into the vertically integrated game to access raw materials.
This one, backed by Glencore, Stellantis and Volkswagen, is setting up to buy copper and nickel mines.



Who knows, someone might go hunting for Lithium...

[dunns_river_falls] 15/7/2023 14:01

Mentioned by Royston Wild on the Motley Fool



Purchasing lithium stocks could be another good way to build a winning portfolio. Demand for the silvery-white metal looks set to boom as sales of electric vehicles take off.

Goldman Sachs believes there will be 73m of these vehicles on the world’s roads by 2040. Yet the current mine development pipeline suggests that lithium supply will struggle to keep up with demand, at least over the next decade. In this landscape, producers of the metal should be able to command a premium price for their product.

Andrada Mining (LSE:ATM) is one lithium stock I’m considering buying to capitalise on this. It owns the Uis lithium mine in Namibia, an asset from where it already produces large amounts of tin and from where it recently made its first bulk lithium concentrate sale.

Andrada has described Uis as “a globally significant lithium and tin resource.” Current mineral resource estimates suggests it contains 138m tonnes, but exploration work is ongoing to lift this figure to 200m.

The AIM company also owns a string of other exciting exploration and development assets in Namibia. Testing at its Spodumene Hill project has also shown high-grade lithium intersections that “suggest the presence of significant spodumene mineralisation.”

Investing in African mining companies carries extra risk for investors. Political instability can be commonplace in the region and mining operations can be disrupted as a result. But on balance I think this stock could be a great way to make large long-term returns.

[ukgeorge] 12/7/2023 15:43

Roll on the next leg up, then some transformational news!

[trickydickytwo] 12/7/2023 14:45

5,500,000 trade at 7.60p - £418,000. That's a fairly sizeable slug.

TDT

[dunns_river_falls] 12/7/2023 14:39

Tin price flying.
$29,130 + 4.2%

[nicosevos] 10/7/2023 06:35

C&P Twitter

Anthony Viljoen@AnthonyViljoen 2h

The #tin price having a bit of a rip of late.

@Andrada_Mining recently published a circa $15k/t cost of production and dropping as

we get more tonnage through the plant. #lithium to come soon as well.

Great chart @MinerDeck

[nesty1760] 09/7/2023 21:57

Absolutely staggering, but like I said we will be able to see the full innings, before being bought out, though if the stuff is in the yard, then surely that will take into account any would be offer?

I just hope AV does deals which benefits us all, I suppose the first sign will be September, when the investment partner is concluded.

All for a £113 million market cap at present, just ludicrous.

[trickydickytwo] 09/7/2023 21:02

I forgot to add the LCE figure derived from a gross resource of 205Mt will be in the region of 3.67Mt Multiply that figure by $42,500/tonne and you end up with $155.975B.

That's for the lithium carbonate alone.

TDT

[trickydickytwo] 09/7/2023 18:12

109,400 tonnes at an average grade of 0.14% produces 153.16 tonnes. Might not seem a lot but:-

1g = $5.70¢
10g = $57
1Kg = $5,700
1T = $5,700,000

A mere $873m. That will take care of the coffee and biscuit kitty.


TDT

[trickydickytwo] 09/7/2023 17:28

Yes, I saw that. its valued in grams because to do so in kilos would take up far too much space on the page.

TDT

[dunns_river_falls] 09/7/2023 16:56

Maybe you should also do some calcs on the Rubidium listed in the latest resource estimates. No idea if its a typo, but if not then that is by far the most valuable element.

[trickydickytwo] 09/7/2023 16:02

dunns_river_falls

If you look at page 8 of the May 2023 presentation it clearly states 1.45Mt of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent). In other words the 81Mt of petalite, when reduced to a lithium carbonate equivalent, produces 1.45Mt of lithium carbonate. How is that worked out? On page 8 they state 81Mt at 0.73% which produces 591,300 tonnes of lithium oxide. The factor for converting lithium oxide into lithium carbonate is 2.473 so 591,300 x 2.473 = 1.46Mt. LCE. They've used 1.45Mt in the presentation but I suspect that's them simply rounding down.

If you then take a look at this web site:-

hxxps://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

you will see a price for lithium carbonate.

hxxps://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium

Lithium carbonate is priced in Renminbi but 307,500RMB/tonne works out to be $42,500/tonne.

Andrada's presentation clearly states 1.45Mt of LCE. That means 1,400,000 tonnes x $42,500/tonne = $61.625B

Bear in mind that's from a gross resource of only 81Mt. They're currently in the process of increasing that to 205Mt.

Has that just mucked up your Sunday :-)

TDT

[trickydickytwo] 09/7/2023 15:37

I’d like to put this out there to see what everybody else thinks.

The below link is taken from page 8 of the May 2023 presentation.



The area highlighted by the largest red box confirms the following metal quantities derived from a gross resource of 81Mt.

Gross resource - 81Mt
Tin – 120kt
LCE – 1.45Mt
Tantalum – 6.96Kt

On the same page you will see a reference to a current resource of 138Mt, outlined in red, and the target resource of 205Mt also outlined in red. The figure of 205Mt is 153% higher than the 81Mt the metal quantities have been derived from. Assuming the grades are consistent at the Uis license, and I believe they are, then a 205Mt gross resource would produce the following: -

Gross resource – 205Mt
Tin – 303.6Kt
LCE – 3.67Mt
Tantalum – 17.61Kt

I believe the 205Mt figure will come from the pegmatites highlighted in the link posted above. You can find more information on how the 205Mt was arrived at on pages 5 and 6 of the 26th. April 2022 PEA.



The area the 205Mt gross resource is from is somewhere between 12sq. km and 15sq. km (you can just about make out a 1km marker beside the legend on the right hand side). The ML134 license area in total is 200sq. km so it seems to me that license ML134 has lots more to give.

The real kicker here though is the value. Current market prices as of 07/07/2023 for the three metals: -

Tin - $28,000/tonne
LCE (Lithium carbonate equivalent) - $42,500/tonne
Tantalum - $150,000/tonne

If you do the maths you come up with an insane in ground value for the three metals from what is likely to be a modest gross resource of 205Mt relative to the actual potential of Uis. Now I appreciate that in ground values are somewhat meaningless but if you factor in the fact that we have a reasonable idea of what current C1, C2 and AISC figures are and that there is upside from proposed economies of scale and ore sorting to come then it seems to me the potential here is truly exceptional.

And all of that is before you consider the potential of the other licenses.

Please feel free to kick around the above, pull it apart where appropriate and correct what must be glaring errors because an in-ground value of US$167B is of the scale.

Note. No allowance has been made for mining loss or any loss during processing or conversion.

TDT