Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[onceaday] 13/11/2021 08:04

Many investors originally bought into Amryt based on the development of EB treatments - AP101 and AP103. Admittedly, progress has been slower than expected for AP101 and non-existent for AP103 but we are now finally close to one potential apptoval. I believe it was the CFO who stated that Filsuvez has low royalties associated with the original IP. This, plus the nature of the active ingredient, should contribute to a high margin product. Amryt will also have only incremental sales-force costs for product launch. You can draw your own conclusions as to the effect of the increased revenue on Amryt's future profitability.

Amryt has a reasonably low risk pipeline with growth prospects for the medium and long term. There are a few concerns - Lomitapide patents start to expire in a few years but given its relatively low sales and specialist prescribing limitations, the drug is probably unattractive to generic manufacturers. Patent expiry would also mean Amryt cease royalty payments for the original IP so ironically could improve profitability.

[digadee] 12/11/2021 22:02

And yet here you are still posting on a board for a company you have not interest in. Strange indeed, its almost as though you need amryt to fail to make yourself feel good.

[bermudashorts] 12/11/2021 17:48

Thanks for the reply but I was hoping for an answer to my specific questions. Current P/E ratio is a poor method for judging the investment potential for any small bio, let alone one with an NDA under review for one product and major labelling expansion plans for others, but I'm sure you already know that. When you have time, it might be worth you really doing some 'serious business number juggling' - you never know, you might be pleasantly surprised.


We do agree on the share price reaction if the FDA reject Filsuvez.

[bermudashorts] 12/11/2021 09:08

SuprARich,

So how have you valued Amryt, did you simply use P/E ratio or did you do some serious 'business number juggling'? What products did you include, in what indicatons and what sales assumptions did you make?

As for snake oil - have some respect for the children who have spent 2 years of their lives being treated with Oleogel-S10, resulting in compelling efficacy data.

[bermudashorts] 12/11/2021 07:09

I'd be interested to see his methods for his 'business number juggling' - exactly what valuation method he's used and which products he's included and then perhaps we can discuss 'real business numbers'.

[onceaday] 12/11/2021 05:47

The terms of the CVRs are as follows:

· The total CVR payable is up to US$85,000,000

· This is divided into three milestones which are related to the success of Oleogel-S10 (the Group's lead development asset)

· FDA approval

o US$35,000,000 upon FDA approval

o 100% of the amount due if approval is obtained before December 31, 2021, with a sliding scale on a linear basis to zero if before July 1, 2022

· EMA approval

o US$15,000,000 upon EMA approval

o 100% of the amount due if approval is obtained before December 31, 2021, with a sliding scale on a linear basis to zero if before July 1, 2022

· Revenue targets

o US$35,000,000 upon Oleogel-S10 revenues exceeding US$75,000,000 in any 12-month period prior to June 30, 2024

· Payment can at the Board's discretion be in the form of either:

o 120-day loan notes (effectively cash), or

o Shares valued using the 30 day / 45-day VWAP.

[bermudashorts] 11/11/2021 20:27

Why do you delete all of your posts?

[bermudashorts] 11/11/2021 12:42

A $100m cash windfall is priced in?

[richpassi] 11/11/2021 06:36

Can understand your feelings Pap this share is frustrating, never expected to be here in the doldrums in the middle of November ! Good luck with where you've parked your money , we are all gonna need luck in this mad world we are living in, can't help but think that if all good news comes on the 30th November, that there is a chance that the yanks will hack another chunk OFF our share price !

[cwa1] 10/11/2021 17:14

This is going to sound like crazy talk...but...any chance we could leave the personalities out of it and just talk about the underlying company instead?

[richpassi] 10/11/2021 12:24

Wish I had so much time on hands ;)

[bazworth] 10/11/2021 11:46

Wonderful friendly banter!!