Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[adw198] 13/9/2021 19:30

I started about halfway through so only caught brief reference to the new strategy.Im confident they’ll get the figures where they need to be but nevertheless was a touch underwhelmed - altho it was a guessing game really anyway.

[bermudashorts] 13/9/2021 19:21

74Tom / Adw198

Did you listen to the webcast this afternoon?

[alphabravo321] 13/9/2021 18:49

I think you should listen to their plans for MyCappsa, they stated that they effectively will relaunch the product in Q 4 as they felt the Chiasma strategy to go for Primary care centres as opposed to community centres will be a game changer, Amryt have a network of contacts in place for Myalept in community centres that they will leverage to relaunch product

[74tom] 13/9/2021 18:30

Thought that would be the case, the bigger worry is what Mycapssa does to EBITDA / free cash flow. Q2 was excellent and attracted me here, I was waiting to see what they upgraded to today & was very underwhelmed with an incremental $10m, as costs are bound to have increased by substantially more. AMYT is on the cusp of real success but a botched acquisition could be really costly.

[adw198] 13/9/2021 18:18

The potential/probable approval for Filsuvez to treat EB.

[ali47fish] 13/9/2021 18:07

Ads what nov approval?

[adw198] 13/9/2021 17:45

I’d imagine the market was most keen see the extent to which Mycapssa had hit the ground running and I don’t think the $10m upgrade is that great - noting not all of that sounds likes it’s from Mycappsa in any case. I also have confidence they’ll get this going in time but there’s obviously a lot of work to be done to “turn the tanker around” as described on the call.
All sounds positive for the November approv though, so about a level par day!

[davidl81] 13/9/2021 17:19

Hello alphabravo321! As you know, I don't post in this chat, I just stalk it!? Don't try and suck me in!

[alphabravo321] 13/9/2021 16:56

Hiya Dave maaaaate!

[alphabravo321] 13/9/2021 16:46

Amyt Q3 on November 3rd from Rory Nealon on webinar

[bermudashorts] 13/9/2021 13:57

Until you see the detailed figures it's impossible to comment but the acquisition of Chiasma was completed less than 6 weeks ago and Mycapssa hasn't even yet received European approval, so it's still very early days in terms of Mycapssa sales for Amryt. We know the size of the potential acromegaly market ($800m) and that Amryt have a proven track record in commercialing orphan drugs so IMO it's way too soon to be making judgement calls on whether or not they've overpaid for Chiasma.

The other point to factor in is the potential of Mycapssa in neuroendocrine tumours.

[moorsie2] 13/9/2021 13:35

I assume the upgrade is on like for like analysis - I.e without the new business revenues

[74tom] 13/9/2021 12:53

Hmmm. I expected a much larger upgrade to full year earnings post inclusion of the Chiasma acquisition.

Mycapssa is priced at $5152 per month / $61824 per annum. If we are to assume that the upgrade of $10m relates entirely to Chiasma, then that means only 160 patients are using the drug 1 year after release (annualising the figures).

The rollout starting in September 2020 and Chiasma reported ~$1m revenue for Q4, suggesting they had enrolled around 62 patients then ($964k / (61824/4) = 62. So their Q4 run rate was $3.8m. To have only increased this to 160 patients 9 months on is very underwhelming and makes me question whether AMYT have overpaid.

The reaction of US investors to the deal certainly points to this (although I know some of this is just mindless selling becasue they don't want to own a non-American company). Will be interesting to see what the US reaction to this afternoon's call.

[waterloo01] 13/9/2021 12:51

They have been consistently upgrading sales. No bad thing!

[punter6] 13/9/2021 12:50

A positive announcement so re estimated full year revenue for 2021 before the presentation this afternoon!!

[alphabravo321] 13/9/2021 12:23

Always building

[bazworth] 12/9/2021 15:44

Trading, totally with you on that!

[sidam] 12/9/2021 14:54

I know that some US investors distrust some foreign companies as I worked for a Canadian group quoted on NASDAQ, but that was years ago.

But the numbers in the takeover documents were rather large, and as the story is more widely known in North America, it could lead to much greater interest. That is why I said it could be pivotal.

But I am a long term holder as I have found that my ability to trade successfully is non existent.

[bazworth] 12/9/2021 14:22

Not so sure about pivotal. If AMRYT continue to grow and be profitable then at some point the share price will reflect fair value. Happy to hold!!

[alphabravo321] 12/9/2021 13:20

I have the same suspicion!

[sidam] 12/9/2021 11:18

I think Monday may be pivotal. I am certainly going to listen to the presentation. I assume this will mainly be aimed at a US audience as it is being hosted by a US company.

[onceaday] 11/9/2021 18:46

True. Hopefully, the same article will make it across the pond to the US motley fool site. As I said before, PDUFA is the real inflection point - one way or another.

[papillon] 11/9/2021 18:35

AMYT probably is cheap, raddersSandy and what no, but the primary listing now is on Nasdaq so the share price on AIM isn't going anywhere until the ADS price on Nasdaq takes off again. For instance the share price on AIM initially rose when the acquisition was announced on the 5th May, but that soon changed when the price plummeted on Nasdaq.

[whatno] 11/9/2021 18:15

Tipped by motley fool