Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[40plus] 10/7/2020 08:36

Debt + Mkt Cap = EV. I'm happy with the Cash Generation and the prospects.

[bazworth] 10/7/2020 08:23

OK, who was it that greased the pole?!

[papillon] 10/7/2020 00:24

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[papillon] 10/7/2020 00:17

"but my own thesis for investing here is that these Orphan Drug companies tend to trade between 4 and 5 x EV/Sales".

True, 40plus, but how many of these orphan drug companies have as much debt as AMYT? You have to take debt into consideration when working out Mkt Cap based on multiples of on revenue.

Debt after all turned Novelion/Aegerion into a potential basket case. AMYT have taken on a slug of that debt having issued shares to replace the remainder of the debt.

The trades on Nasdaq have been small. I'm guessing that former loss making small Novelion shareholders are taking advantage of being able to sell their shares after being unable to for around a year and so recoup some of their past losses.

The AMYT ADS's on Nasdaq should start to rise again once those "stale" holders are out of the way.

[40plus] 09/7/2020 22:36

Davy put out a price target of £3.20 on May 11 2020.



As a private investor I don't have access to the full note but my own thesis for investing here is that these Orphan Drug companies tend to trade between 4 and 5 x EV/Sales. Based on my assumptions of Metreleptin and Lomitipide sales in this FY I have a similar £3+ target by next FY results day based on 4 x EV/Sales. With AP101 still to report I am a happy holder in ISA and SIPP.

[papillon] 09/7/2020 22:08

I think you always have to take broker share price forecasts with a large pinch of salt, bazworth. I remember reading that an experienced trader always halved a broker forecast and then halved it again!! If you halve Cantor Fitzgerald's US$45 for the Nasdaq listed ADS's that gives US$22.50. If you halve it again that gives US$11.25 which is what the ADS's closed at yesterday. The pre and after markets may give higher prices, but it closed at US$11 today. Halving the broker forecast and then halving it again seems to be spot on in the case of AMYT.

With the benefit of hindsight (which I don't, unfortunately, possess) I should have sold when the share price got to my £2 share price target, or bloody close, intraday on Tuesday. The bullish flag/pennant chart pattern share price target I had highlighted was met. I should have then sold my 5k of shares. Better to be satisfied with your target price and sell early, even if the share price had subsequently gone higher.

I no longer dabble in shares and AMYT is my last holding (I also own shares in GPM, but that's an investment trust so I make an exception there) and I wouldn't have bought back in if I had sold. That would have been it. I've become a bit attached to my AMYT shares which can be dangerous.

[ultrasharp] 09/7/2020 14:35

First trades on Nasdaq equivalent to £1.90. Let us see what happens.

ATB papillon

[ultrasharp] 09/7/2020 14:19

The latest live pre market quote on Nasdaq is $12.49. That equates to £2 on AIM. Could be worth topping up at current price on AIM.

ATB papillon

[ultrasharp] 09/7/2020 13:02

Good news. Current real time pre market price of AMYT ADS's on Nasdaq is US$12.40, up US$1.15 on yesterday's close! 😁

ATB papillon

[bazworth] 09/7/2020 11:25

Hopefully!! Also, excitement may build towards the Phase 3 results!

[alphabravo321] 09/7/2020 11:12

Little shakeout after a very big rise is not surprising, bit of time for it to settle down on Nasdaq and onwards we go

[nick rubens] 09/7/2020 09:51

Seems to be sellers appearing this morning. The phrase 'better to travel than arrive' comes to mind, especially after the strong run up recently. I would think it's going to be beneficial overall to have the NASDAQ listing.

[ultrasharp] 09/7/2020 08:53

Looks like AMYT will become an American company eventually. 70 % of shareholders are currently American and Stafford, Wiley and Nealon are converting their shares into ADS's.

ATB papillon

[ultrasharp] 09/7/2020 08:48

Not as big a fall as I feared. It looks like the MM's are taking the after hours Nasdaq price of US$12.04 as their guide rather than the US $11.25 closing price.

ATB papillon

[bageo] 09/7/2020 06:27

papillon
Looking at Krystal Biotech for an EB, gene therapy comparison, the most interesting thing I thought was that Phase 1 & Phase 2 between them included less than 10 patients - wounds treated was more than 10 but not by much. I wonder what scale their planned Phase 3 is?
Seems a very small sample compared to Amryts non gene therpay trials.

[bazworth] 08/7/2020 23:14

Cracking find, let’s hope we get somewhere close!

[ultrasharp] 08/7/2020 22:47

Courtesy of Bermudashorts on lse bb. I take it the Cantor Fitzgerald US$45 price target is for the ADR's.

ATB papillon

[ultrasharp] 08/7/2020 22:00

Closed @ US$11.25 on Nasdaq. After hours price was US$12.04. We could see the price open up to 10% lower tomorrow on AIM.

ATB papillon.

[ultrasharp] 08/7/2020 20:41

Currently £1.86 (equivalent) on Nasdaq.

[alphabravo321] 08/7/2020 20:40

https://livestream.com/nasdaq/live

[papillon] 08/7/2020 19:30

Bronxville

Posts: 1,968

Price: 196.00

No Opinion

Nealon should be fired!Today 19:25
He's been planning this since 2016 and didn't bother his azz to get a US Broker ..

Less than 15k shares traded

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


Couldn't agree more, Bronxville. Just a few small sellers no doubt offloading their shares acquired via the takeover (RTO) of Aegerion (at a loss) and no buyers.

[ultrasharp] 08/7/2020 19:07

Wiley says Americans hold 70% of AMYT shares. Looks like some of them are taking advantage of a Nasdaq listing to dump them!! 🥵 You've got to 😂 It's only money after all.

ATB PAPILLON

[ultrasharp] 08/7/2020 19:01

Dropping like a stone on Nasdaq. 😂

[ultrasharp] 08/7/2020 18:45

Sorry. I didn't see your post quoting £1.80 equivalent on Nasdaq..