Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[diamondstar1] 20/7/2018 23:50

I’m hopeful that Amryt will announce another licensing deal soon. You guys have heard my opinion in the past that Myalept (myaleptin) is a potential candidate, given Amryt’s relationship with Novelion and subsidiary Aegerion. Partial lipodystrophy fits in the ‘orphan disease’ bucket and also fits well with the metabolic disease focus ie HoFH which they are targeting. Novelion announced on 1st June 2018 that they have received positive CHMP opinion - this coincides with Day 210 of the Centralised European Authorisation Procedure. This means that Novelion should achieve Marketing Authorisation (MA) in EU ~67 days after positive CHMP opinion i.e. around Aug 7th, which is about 3 weeks away. Novelion have filed for MA via a U.K. subsidiary; in my opinion, Novelion do not have the capability to market by themselves in EU. Imagine the market response if Amryt were able to in-license a second product, such as Myalept. I’m sure Paps that your resistance levels of 17.5 & 20p will be easily exceeded! Pleasant thoughts from my side. If Amryt share price surges above 20p - this will be the time to raise further capital. I’m not sure what the odds are of EASE interims being positive - say it is 80:20 - favouring a positive result. In the unlikely outcome that it is negative - Amryt does not want to be caught wrong footed, without any capital left! That’s why I think there is a bias towards trying to add some buffer before the interims. Greendragon - you asked about possible outcomes with EASE interims. There are 3 possible outcomes:- 1) Carry on study ‘as is’ - this is clearly the best outcome and indicates that they are confident, based on results from 50% of the subjects 2) Increase patient numbers - means they are seeing some divergence between active vs. placebo, but need greater patient numbers to achieve statistical significance. However, extra patients means additional costs 3) Stop study due to futility. You can see that additional capital before announcement of EASE interims would be clearly beneficial for outcome 2) and 3). Hence, supporting my postulation that a capital raise would be on the cards sooner than later.

[papillon] 20/7/2018 23:47

You could be correct about AMYT, bazworth. Me? I can't predict future share prices. I'm here for the EASE trial results; what hppens to the share price before then is ouside of my control. It could easily drop back to 16p, or it could attack resistance at 27p. I have no idea. Is yesterday's update RNS enough to encourage the big buyers to continue buying? I have no idea.

[bazworth] 20/7/2018 23:15

It’s a truly great story. I reckon we will get an AMRYT whooooosh fairly soon. All down to Geordie intuition!!

[papillon] 20/7/2018 22:50

Just my opinion after looking at the OPTI chart, bazworth. bwtfdik? I could be wrong. I know nothing of the OPTI fundamentals.

[bazworth] 20/7/2018 22:16

I don’t follow charts but understand why some do. Cheers!!

[bazworth] 20/7/2018 13:49

Excitement - add a few opti or vrs - keeps me awake whilst waiting for the AMRYT 'WHOOSH'!!

[papillon] 20/7/2018 13:34

I was looking at the AMYT chart on the investtech.com site (computer generated log stock charts). They had resistance levels at 17.50p (not my 18p) and 20.2p. The 17.5p resistance was breached earlier this week and it then became support and it's back down resting on that 17.5p support level today (in fact it's a tad lower, but what's 0.02p between friends!). Will that support hold? I've no idea!

The investtech.com site also had AMYT in a short term downtrend. Yesterday the share price was up against the upper descending line of that downtrend. The share price rise that started on Monday following the Sunday Times & ShareProphets tips and yesterday's RNS could be all over? The rise could be a 4 day wondr; short, but sweet.

Back to sleep after this week's excitement?

[papillon] 20/7/2018 12:04

Unusually for AMYT you can actually sell above the arbitary mid price. The actual spread (rather than the quoted spread) is currently very tight. You can buy small amounts for 17.885p and sell small amounts for 17.87p. A trade for 11,182 shares (buy @ 17.885p) is the largest trade so far today.

[papillon] 19/7/2018 21:55

You could be right with your analysis, greendragon. A successful interim update (trial to continue) would push up the share price and thus enable them to get a placing away at a higher price. Let's hope the interim update is issued in early Q4, as promised, otherwise if it's delayed that would mean cash would be very tight; maybe just 2 months remaining?

The share price could go higher in the short term, greendragon. There is some resistance @ 18p and stronger resistance @ 20.3p If there is no placing before the interim update who knows how high the share price could go? There is resistance at 27p (last summer's high). Of course I've no idea where the share price will be by early Q4 2018 just before the interim update.

I've always regarded AMYT as a short/medium term punt on the success of the EASE phase III trial (only regulatory approval means a successful outcome in my book). It's a gamble, IMO, so that's why I've limited myself to circa £5k (circa 25k shares). I might increase that £5k, but probably only after the interim update says the trial can continue.

[greendragon777] 19/7/2018 19:44

I just can't see them doing another placement before the interims. My guess is they would renegotiate the repayment terms for the EIB loan in a failed interim result and try plug the funding gap with the increasing sales of Lojuxta as much as possible. The cash burn should drastically reduce once they kill off the study and I'd imagine it would be instant too. It'll be all hands on deck in a failed interim result but fingers crossed it won't come to that!

Nice to see a bit of an uptick on the share price in the meantime.

[papillon] 19/7/2018 16:08

No doubt Management will be very aware of the cashflow & cashburn figures, alphabravo. However many small PI's tend to be ignorant of those very important cashflow & cashburn figures.

Would AMYT want to saddle themselves with more than the current 20m Euro's of debt, alphabravo? I've no idea.

EDIT: If I was a cynic (God forbid!) , alphabravo, I'd say that the reason AMYT issued that update today (plus the Sunday Times tip) was to push up the share price prior to announcing a placing. We shall see, bwtfdik?

[bermudashorts] 19/7/2018 15:49

The record for the EASE trial on the Clinical Trials Register has been updated today with new trial protocol.

Main changes:-

- recruitment increased from 164 to 192 patients

- Primary outcome measure and entry requirements has slightly changed from wounds that were over 21 days old to wounds over 21 days but less than 9 months old

- EB Simplex now excluded

- 2 new trial centres opened in Brazil and trial centre in Denmark has started recruiting

No surprises, all in line with previous announcements from what I can tell.

[alphabravo321] 19/7/2018 15:32

I have no doubt the management team have their eye on the c/flow, they secured the EIB loan and placing with zero fuss

[papillon] 19/7/2018 15:26

I'm not saying that, bazworth. Just saying it doesn't significantly affect when the money runs out. Do the maths!

Including the Lojuxta revenue of around 12m Euro's for the 12 months from 30/6/2017 to 30/6/2018 means the cash burn for that 12 months was actually around 35m Euro's. Assuming the same rate of cash burn for the 6 months from 30/6/2018 to 31/12/2018 means that cash burn for that 6 months could be around 18m Euro's. AMYT had 12.2m Euro's at 30/6/2018. Assuming Lojuxta revenue of 7m -8m Euros in that 6 month period means that AMYT will have just around 1m Euro's remaining at 31/12/2018.

Do the maths, bazworth :-)

PS. I've always said AMYT is NOT for widows & orphans. It's a punt on the result of the Episalvan EB phase III trial. If that's deemed to be a failure then AMYT is effectively up sh*t creek without a paddle. The share price would drop (it could crash by 50%) and though the cash burn rate would be drastically reduced if the interim update means it's futile to continue with the EASE trial, AMYT would still be lumbered with a 20m Eur debt that would take some time to repay from Lojuxta profits!

[bazworth] 19/7/2018 14:36

papillon, are you saying that there is no net cash benefit from Lojuxta?

[papillon] 19/7/2018 14:06

And that cash burn wont end until Q2 2019 when (hopefully) the EASE trial "top-line data" is released, digadee. At the current cash burn rate AMYT will be out of cash well before then.

EDIT: I've intentially ignored Lojuxta revenue in my cash burn calculations because I don't believe that will significantly affect when AMYT is likely to run out of cash since though Lojuxta revenue will add to AMYT's cash balance it also increases the cash burn rate by a similar amount.

[digadee] 19/7/2018 13:07

i suspect majority of the cash burn will be down to cost of the PIII trial

[papillon] 19/7/2018 13:01

Since cash burn was 23m Euro's during the period from 30/6/2017 to 30/6/2018 and cash at 30/6/2018 was 12.2m Euro's that means that at the current rate of cash burn AMYT will run out of cash VERY SOON AFTER 31/12/2018. Hence I'm expecting a PLACING sometime between now and the end of the year. Now do AMYT take a chance and wait until after the interim EASE update due in early Q4 2018, or go for another placing before then? I don't believe that AMYT will risk a placing after the EASE interim update because bad news will caue a big drop in the share price leading to increased dilution and it would also be harder to get a placing away. The AMYT BoD will likely err on the side of caution and announce a placing before Q4 2018, IMO.

Of course they might be able to borrow money instead. Perhaps they will get another loan from the EIB?

PS. Continual cash raising exercises are par for the course, unfortunately, when one invests in "new" companies listed on AIM whose revenue (if they have any) doesn't go anywhere near to covering their annual cash burn.

[papillon] 19/7/2018 11:27

Looking back through the previous RNS's the remaining 10m Euro's of the EIB loan was drawndown by AMYT between 30/6/2017 and 31/12/2017. Hence AMYT received 14.3m Euro's from last September's placing and 10m Euro's from the EIB loan during the 12 month period from 30/6/2017 to 30/6/2018. Since cash remaining at 30/6/2018 was 12.2m Euro's and at 30/6/2017 was 10.9m Euro's that means that the CASH BURN for the 12 month period from 30/6/2017 to 30/6/2018 was 23m Euro's. Let's hope that the cash burn doesn't continue at that rate from 30/6/2018 onwards because another fund raising is definitely on the horizon and very soon.

Today's RNS was good news, apart from the fact that the remaining cash will run out soon AFTER 31/12/2018 if the cash burn continues at the current rate. That puts a bit of a damper on today's RNS. Fingers crossed that we get great news on the phase III trial interim update in early Q4.

EDIT. I've corrected my cash burn figures downwards. Cash burn for the 12 month period from 30/6/2017 to 30/6/2018 was 23m Euro's. That means that if the current cash burn rate continues at that level cash will run out soon AFTER 31/12/2018 and not before as I originally posted. Still means a placing could be on the cards sometime between now and the end of the year. So today's RNS is NOT all good news.

[papillon] 19/7/2018 11:10

Now that is a good RNS. Very good news indeed. Definitely better than a newspaper tip, richpassi. :-) At last a Lojuxta revenue forecast for 2018 and it's good.

PS. Cash is NOT increasing, alphabravo. Cash is only marginally higher at 30/6/2018 than at 30/6/2017 because of last September's 15m Euro (gross) placing. In fact cash burn looks to have been around 13m Euro's for the 12 months from 30/6/2017 to 30/6/2018. Also does my cash burn figure include the remaining 10m Euro from the EIB loan? If it doesn't then cash burn could have been around 23m Euro's for that 12 month period. EDIT. MY NEXT POST shows that the 10m EIB loan should have been included in my cash burn figure and cash burn is in fact around 23m Euro's for the 12 month period 30/6/2017 to 30/6/2018.

If cash burn continues at those rates another fund raising can't be ruled out and soon!

EDIT Corrected my figures.

[gnnmartin] 19/7/2018 08:44

Cash flowing out, cash was £20m at the end 2017.

[alphabravo321] 19/7/2018 07:25

More steady progress, cash increasing, they sound quietly confident in EASE...roll on October...

[waterloo01] 19/7/2018 07:24

Decent update on revenue which should improve. Would be excellent to see them leverage the sales resource with another similar deal.