Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 09/9/2018 10:31

LOL, alphabravo. Half year results tomorrow, or Tuesday?

[alphabravo321] 09/9/2018 08:38

You sound like my wife Papillon!

[papillon] 09/9/2018 00:16

So you're an "adder", alphabravo, or more correctly an English Viper, the only venomous snake native to Britain! I always knew you were dangerous! :-)

[alphabravo321] 08/9/2018 22:45

I'm a holder and an adder...

[papillon] 08/9/2018 21:58

I'm also continuing to hold. I'm just stating the bleeding obvious, that's all! So far my timing has been awful. I've been holding here for almost 4 years and had no return, so far. Not something to boast about, I'm afraid.

Whether my luck (or skill) changes depends on the news flow from AMYT over the remainder of 2018. Unfortunately I haven't got a crystal ball so it's just a question of continuing to hold and hope for the best. As always, FINGERS CROSSED.

[bazworth] 08/9/2018 19:11

I'm a sticker too, despite the current discomfort!!

[papillon] 07/9/2018 13:21

You could be right, greendragon. All the UK indices (FTSE100, 250, 350, All Share, etc) are well down today. The fact is that there are more sellers of AMYT today than buyers (who are very thin on the ground!) and hence even a couple of moderately sized sells (97k & 50k) have caused a drop in the share price

Here's a useful "idiots guide" to how trading in AMYT shares (SETSqx) is done.



advfn wont let me show this link because it comes from a competitor and deletes the link. To post it I have inserted // between the name proactive//investors. Please remove them to view link

"Idiots Guide to the London Stock Exchange's SETSmm
23:00 18 Jan 2008
The LSE recently decided, in its wisdom, to extend the SETS system to less frequently traded shares, and to ensure permanent liquidity, they combined the SETS order book with the continuous liquidity provided by firm two-way quotes from market makers."

This is why BUYS are often shown as SELLS (and less frequently the reverse) on the advfn trade data for AMYT. Not all trades in AMYT go through an MM.

[greendragon777] 07/9/2018 12:38

It's probably nothing more than a general market pullback and it's dragging AMYT down too. Markets are very jittery these days!

[papillon] 07/9/2018 12:27

AMYT has never attracted the rampers and pumpers & dumpers brigade, bazworth. It's got a very, very, low profile (almost non existent!) amongst investors.

Bronxville has wondered whether there is an MM "tree shake" going on, or whether there is bad news on the way.

I don't believe either is the case. In fact, in the continuing absence of any real buying interest in AMYT, 2 biggish SELLS this morning have likely caused most of today's fall in the sp, bazworth. Both @ well below the then bid price.

A SELL of 97,125 @ 17p @ 9:45 and

A SELL of 50,000 @ just 16.25p @ 10.57

To SELL 50k after someone sold 97k just an hour or so previously was just asking for the price to crash seeing that there is currently very few buyers around of any quantity to soak up SELLS of that size.

Why would someone be so desperate to sell 97k and then 50k at such low prices? Were they closing speculative T20's they opened 18 trading days ago? Did they not have the money to buy the shares, or if they did were they worried the share price would fall further next week?

Who knows? All speculation I'm afraid and we will never know the answer.

Bronxville could be correct and there is bad news on the way, but I seriously doubt that. After all the only RNS due within the next week, or so, is the half year results and the recent update signalled what they were likely to contain and it wasn't negative.

[bazworth] 07/9/2018 10:52

Seeing a bit of a fall here! It’s sad really as the Company has, arguably, delivered on all of its promises and more. The one missing bit is another distribution agreement similar to Lojuxta, hopefully that will come soon. I’m sitting on a substantial loss but ok elsewhere so I’ll hang tight!

[papillon] 06/9/2018 17:20

Mostly sells today. AMYT is definitely unloved. 18p to provide support, or will it go lower in the short term? I can't see the half year results providing much share price excitement (if any) because we have already had a recent revenue update from the company so we know what to expect and the EASE interim analysis could be months away, possibly 3 months away. Looks like today's sellers see more excitement potential elsewhere in the short term.

[papillon] 04/9/2018 18:21

No RNS today. Last year the interim results were released on Monday 4th September. The year before they were issued on Tuesday 13th September. Well if the results are to be issued on either Monday, or Tuesday, then the 10th, or the 11th, this year then next week seems the most likely.

Not many trades today, but they were NOT all sells as the trade prices seem to indicate. As is usually the case with AMYT one could buy below the mid price of the quoted spread all day. Why don't the MM's quote the actual spread ffs?

However the last reported trade today was a sell and it was also thelargest (it was also just over 50% of the total number of shares traded today). It was @ 15:33 and was for 50k of shares. The price was 18.80p. Most posters on this bb are very bullish on AMYT's short term prospects, but presumably that is not the case with the seller of the 50k today.

[papillon] 03/9/2018 13:53

No RNS today. When the interim EASE analysis is issued in Q4 then I expect (BUT ONLY IF THE ANALYSIS IS POSITVE AND THE BEST CASE SCENARIO) to see a bigger percentage rise than that which greeted the EIB 20m Euro loan RNS & Lojuxta RNS on the 2/12/2016 & 5/12/2016 respectively, despite the 68m extra shares in issue since then. Then the share price rose by more than 6p, from just under 14p in less than 2 weeks. A similar percentage rise from 19p would target chart resistance @ circa 27-28p. Of course I don't know what the AMYT share price will be immediately preceeding the EASE interim analysis results. It could be the current 19p, or say 16p, or say 27p? That will depend on what news AMYT issue before those EASE results and whether or not investors take a bullish, or bearish, view preceeding the issue of those results. As always it's FINGERS CROSSED. AMYT is a gamble on that EASE interim analysis and always has been and is definitely NOT for widows & orphans to invest in!

[bazworth] 02/9/2018 20:12

My tongue was firmly in my cheek! All agreed though green dragon777.

Cheers!

[greendragon777] 02/9/2018 19:52

50p would be a welcome shot in the arm on the share price Bazworth but we need a positive announcement on the EASE interims for that to be a possibility. Assuming it is positive, it'll be a tough call at that stage whether to hold out for the final readou, Taking half off the table may well prove to be the most sensible thing to do but it'll be a good complaint to have whether to sell at 50p or not if we get there!

[bazworth] 02/9/2018 12:32

I will be if they get to 50p, I’ll be taking half mine off the table!! I live in hope if not expectation!!

[alphabravo321] 02/9/2018 11:40

I bet we will see interim results tomorrow, Be nice to see some morsels of info re new avenues or licensing deals...any takers??

[greendragon777] 31/8/2018 19:04

Ah....that makes more sense, I thought it was Phase III.

SO we're still looking good for a share price of 50p post interims, phew! Haha

[papillon] 31/8/2018 18:45

I wont be investing in MTPH, greendragon. It appears today's positive RNS was only concerning interim results from a phase I exploratory study. Very early stage. Not to be compared to AMYT's EASE phase III interim analysis due in Q4 (or the reason for FARN's 200%+ share price rise in H1 2017).

[greendragon777] 31/8/2018 11:52

Good points Paps, all makes sense. I agree, there will defo be profit takers on the way up (all going of course) so once that's cleared then hopefully it will continue upwards. If they are thinking of listing in the US, that would be a great time to do it ie- just after the interims (if they are positive). That would really propel the share price upwards.

It's a pity we can't get regular updates with regard the patient recruitment numbers. If we could see the progress of that we would have a better idea of when we reach the halfway mark. Anyway, a little more patience is required I guess!

Roll on November/December......

[papillon] 31/8/2018 11:26

Look at the FARN chart, greendragon!! Initially, back in early 2017, the rise in the FARN sp, after 2 days, on the positive interim analysis was only around 20%. Shares like FARN and MTPH don't double, or triple overnight, on such a good news RNS!! It takes time!! It took FARN around a week to achieve a 30% rise in the share price Within 4 months it was up over 200%!! This is because investors gradually become more and more bullish on the share as time progresses and bears become less bearish. Hence the buying increases and the selling decreases.

PS. I only mentioned MTPH because, like AMYT, it is concentrating on rare diseases and like AMYT has a potential product for treating ACROMEGALY (AMYT has AP102). However the MTPH product is far more advanced (in phase III).
MTPH has 5 potential products, but only one that has passed phase II and that is in phase III. Today's RNS refers to that.

PPS. My target AMYT share price (say, 50-60p) is NOT my initial share price target on the first few days following on from a positive interim analysis (HOPEFULLY the interim analysis is positive!). Don't forget there is an awful lot of chart resistance @ circa 27-28p to be overcome. You will get profit takers. My target share price could takes months to achieve. Rather like with FARN!!