Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[skinwalker] 24/7/2018 07:35

I'm avoiding all O&G Companies at present Blackgold.

[ronwilkes123] 24/7/2018 07:35

If you don’t mind as well please stop posting here if you are no longer a holder

There is a solo board

[ronwilkes123] 24/7/2018 07:33

So blackgold what you are saying is you have sold down your aminex to buy solo

Good luck

[blackgold00] 24/7/2018 07:11

yes, Aminex is fine, but i think circumstances has now put the spotlight on Solo. what do you think skin

[skinwalker] 24/7/2018 06:52

Forgive me blackgold - but didn't you think Aminex looked interesting once?

[blackgold00] 24/7/2018 06:28

so how cheap is Solo in comparison who also has 25% and a market cap of £11.33m with 472m shares in issue. Doing the sums, they need to raise £11.5m to get them to EPS of a minimum gross production of 40 mmcf/d. so in simplistic terms, if they could get a placing away at today's share price they need only to double the shares in issue to raise the funds to get them to EPS approx $12 million PA. i think Solo are looking interesting.

[ronwilkes123] 23/7/2018 16:08

30 mil a year with a 70 mil market cap

[gerryjames] 23/7/2018 15:57

12 months. 30 million a year. Somebody said.

He said the farm-away was complicated...no it wasn't.

[blackgold00] 23/7/2018 15:53

long term ? how long is a long term, in Aminex time.

[impvesta] 23/7/2018 15:33

Vox Markets podcast 40 mins - Malcy thinks "Aminex shareholders will be very very well rewarded in the long term":

[gerryjames] 23/7/2018 07:42

It's too dodgy. You can't even get paid. That's why there's no development. What are you doing on here PJ?

[warbaby43] 22/7/2018 07:47

Long overdue, as we continue to bestow £200m pa on Magufuli's CCM thugs and Sen Menendez omits to mention the 38 bullet assassination attempt last September on Chadema MP Tundu Lissu and the CCM's overturning of the 2015 election result on Zanzibar

[pireric] 20/7/2018 21:09

Discount factor of 12-15% much closer to the mark

[haggismchaggis] 20/7/2018 20:10

HaiderAli, Yes, and that is one way that ii and broker analysts calculate the value of companies.

[haideralifool] 20/7/2018 12:44

Bun asked about the NPV.

Assuming the investment is the current market cap (in $). Discount factor (finger in the air) 4% and net income from Ruvuma over the 20 years is $30m per year, you end up with an NPV which is a multiple of the current market cap.

Hugely simplistic I know, ignores that the market cap buys you other assets and that there are other expenses, but it's a stab.

[mr ramper] 20/7/2018 12:27

check out COPL .

[canigou2] 20/7/2018 12:21

Not true, I'm still an AEX shareholder. True I've added a little SOLO to my portfolio as a high risk/reward play. The AEX risk seems to have been reduced (lets see how the relationship with the Zubs plays out) and I'm looking forward to improved project execution and timescales which are actually met.

But still the question needs to be asked, what is fair value for AEX, now and in the future? The 'equation' has changed significantly with the farmout.

I'm still a supporter of AEX (after much deliberation), but I'm still very miffed with management (the deal wasn't as good as I'd hoped) and also the poor communication. For example, stressing the EPS (25% of 40MMcf/d to AEX) underplays the potential at Ruvuma IMHO. EPS should always be mentioned with the side note of the plan for FDP. Slide 5 in the latest presentation shows FDP as just a few years away and with a much more palatable 25% of 140MMcf/d to AEX. With the Zubs onboard this is now achievable.

The N-3 well (CH-1) well still excites me.

It has taken too long to remediate the well at Kilwani. Cash flow from 10MMcf/d is still material to AEX.

A future planned net 45MMcf/d is realistic (which will provide ca. $50m /yr cashflow to AEX) and the upside at Ruvuma and Nyuni still remains attractive. Hence, my questioning for what is fair value now and potentially in the future ...

[dunderheed] 20/7/2018 10:55

Yes because it's already probably happened lol!

[haggismchaggis] 20/7/2018 10:53

Come on canigou, these mind games are so obvious. You don't care about the answer, as we've already answered your question several times in recent posts on here, all you want to do is create doubt and negativity so people move to your stock, Solo. It isn't happening.

[bunbooster2] 20/7/2018 10:49

Um, well WRL is 60 million and seems to be a few years further down the line with delivery of 25 mmfcd with a GSA and money flowing in. SOLO is 11 million with the same 25 % share of Ruvuma but no route to funding as yet.

So on the basis of just Ruvuma compared to peers the answer has to be no. SOLO looks the high risk high reward play on Ruvuma now.

On other metrics whats the net present value of a 12 million income, potentially, rising to 30 million over twenty years and whats the risk of that not happening in a timely manner?

[canigou2] 20/7/2018 10:27

Simple question, does AEX now justify its $100m market cap?

I would just would like to try to understand present valuations vs risk. It is very difficult!

[gerryjames] 20/7/2018 09:13

WOW! 12 months now...This will be 10p by Christmas like you say. The lastest presentation is a corker. Wait until Warren Buffet sees it Suemchaggis, your hero. He'll not wait until the volatility has settled unlike the pension funds you mentioned...are doing.

Are pension funds off on a Friday sue?

[haggismchaggis] 20/7/2018 07:45

Blackgold, so the pipeline order might have to wait until after the 3D and Chikumbi-1, but the project plan and approvals can still be created today, as the pipeline will still be taking the same route to the Madimba gas processing plant.They can simply adjust timings for laying the pipe, and the project cost, once they have decided the pipe size based on the 3D and Chikumbi-1.

[blackgold00] 19/7/2018 22:24

i read somewhere or heard, that the pipe-line will be big enough to take the development to full production.



slide 4
"Based on results of CH-1 and 3D seismic, construct pipeline to allow for maximum gas delivery"

[haggismchaggis] 19/7/2018 21:37

HaiderAli, yes I noticed that too. When you consider they are targeting up-dip of Ntorya and up-dip of Likonde, in what looks like 3 or 4 different targets with one well, then the potential is definitely there for it to be 'a boomer'. Just 30-40mmcfd per zone, plus N1 and N2, for 140mmcfd.

I'm sure they will have the pipeline plans and all approvals in place by the time they test Chikumbi-1, as the pipeline is for the Ruvuma development, it's not just for Chikumbi-1. If Chikumbi-1 was just another 20mmcfd there would be other wells drilled, so the pipeline would still be needed, therefore there's no reason to wait for Chikumbi-1 before planning the pipeline and getting approvals.

If they have two pipeline size plans then ordering the pipes would have to wait for the result if Chikumbi-1 to see if it's 'a boomer'. But either way, with all the planning and preparation done, it would be possible to get the pipeline connected in 6 months.

In July last year they said it's just 32km to the Madimba gas processing plant. So not far, and no gas processing plant to build, and ARA to throw money at it.