Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[haggismchaggis] 17/7/2018 17:33

Canigou, carry on over to Solo, see if anyone gives a hoot. In the meantime I suggest everyone watches the Jay LSE video where he explains how difficult it was for Aminex (fully listed) to raise the cash for development, the dilution would have been horrendous in a placing or rights issue, nobody would have lent that much cash without a ridiculous interest rate, so ARA offered the best deal, probably the only realistically viable deal that would please the big shareholders. NOW THINK, Solo are an AIM listed company, they will have even more difficulty getting that much cash and will likely have to settle for a deal similar to the ARA deal, potentially even a deal WITH ARA.

[dunderheed] 17/7/2018 17:11

Hardnose can you please stop sensible posts sprinkled with realism. This isn't what the legend of aex is all about.
It is about camaraderie of bb'ers pumping and pumping up the 'legend' in attempt to become 'chief cheerleader'.
This cherished position currently held over on MC where they are positively thrashing themselves into a frenzy for AEX.
I believe 'tones of voices' and 'smiles' are back on the agenda for discussion and further analysis.
I tell you's by the 'look in JBs eyes' and all the II's ringing him constantly I believe Aex could be a FTSE 100 company this time next year!!

[hardnose] 17/7/2018 16:50

I can't help thinking who are the II's that have responded so positively? When have they had the opportunity to do so, given the time between the announcement and the interview (were they privy to the deal before it was announced; I can't imagine they've been calling Jay up to congratulate him?) What makes this suddenly attractive to an institutional investor when the Zubair's can buy out the remaining shares when things start to look positive? Why would this be a better investment for me if I'm looking after someone's pension than buying a slice of the Lindsel Global train fund? It's still massively risky in my mind...

[kryptonsnake] 17/7/2018 16:48

SOLO is a dead duck, no way can they raise that much without selling part of their 25%

[canigou2] 17/7/2018 16:44

I never thought I'd say this, but I will be looking to transfer funds from AEX to SOLO over the next few weeks. There is 'value arbitrage' available here IMHO.

In this scenario, even a major share dilution by SOLO to raise the $15m cash required for Ruvuma to EPS is welcome. SOLO would then have a mkt cap of £20m (versus AEX at £80m) and a paid up 25% stake in the Ruvuma project(i.e. for CH-1, 3D seismic and development to EPS).

[dunderheed] 17/7/2018 16:38

Said from the viewpoint of great experience working many years in 'senior positions' in the city.
We are indeed very very lucky to have such outstanding commentaries/lectures AND c&p's about 3d as well to boot.
May I be the first of very many to personally thank haggis for all the value he adds to this thread?

[pireric] 17/7/2018 16:37

I'll be shocked beyond belief if you see any new IIs picking up AEX stock in the next few weeks

[haggismchaggis] 17/7/2018 16:29

HaiderAli, Ii's do not, and in most cases cannot, buy stocks during high volatility. They watch the volatility index for the stock until it flattens out before they buy. Also the investment into a new stock has to go through a rigorous analysis first, with many factors and risks examined, and this process can take weeks before a senior investment manager signs off on the investment. So wait a few weeks and see what happens.

[haggismchaggis] 17/7/2018 16:25

You're forgetting all the other acreage that AEX own the licences for in Tanzania, and the gas resources in those locations.You are also forgetting that Aminex is fully listed, not risky AIM listed. A large percentage of ii's cannot (it's part of their risk policy) buy AIM stocks, they don't get the choice.Solo need to find 25% of $105m.

[haideralifool] 17/7/2018 16:23

haggis, JB also observed that II's love the deal and that PIs don't.

Surely if IIs do love it, II sized buying should have taken care of the PI sells and then some.

I totally agree with your point about the dividends over the next thirty years. Earlier I posted that we could be looking at fcf of approaching 1p per share.

[canigou2] 17/7/2018 16:07

Moreover SOLO could raise $15m to get to EPS and then potentially use the cashflow to fund the project from thereon in. SOLO only need a credible management team (Neil Ritson is stepping down) and the immediate $15m funding? A lot of risk, but SOLO looks like it could be in play here (and is severely discounted versus AEX).

[canigou2] 17/7/2018 16:01

Please can I make a simple comparison. Comments welcome.

AEX mkt cap £80m 25% Ruvuma ... $35m free carry + $5m cash. $40m = £30m
SOLO mkt cap £10m 25% Ruvuma ... no cash

So if SOLO raise £30m they are just as well off as AEX (but with additional interests at HH and Helium-1). Is this correct?

I'm am not ofcourse taking into account any funding risks or management discount here.

[haggismchaggis] 17/7/2018 16:00

HaiderAli, ii's have no interest in such short term trader psychology, they buy with a long-term view. In Aminex's case, this is a screaming buy for a fund manager, due to the dividends it would look to accrue over the next 30 years.Meanwhile for PI's there is the prospect of drilling and testing Chikumbi-1, which may well find OIL, or a LOT of gas production, either of which would boost the share price, as the EPS/pipeline is a known quantity which ARA will want to get in ASAP.

[greyingsurfer] 17/7/2018 15:46

Well that's always the hard judgement. Do you wait till cash is going to start flowing, and likely pay a higher price, or do you respond to things that affect future valuation? The farmout clearly does that, but there is other news I'd expect to see soon - licences, possible KN-1 remediation happening, plans for KS and Nyuni, and of course Ch-1 results early next year.I'd agree some will hold off till things are a lot clearer, particularly given the history, but I suspect some will start seeing the case for buying before as things progress.Peter

[haideralifool] 17/7/2018 15:34

Peter, the numbers look good.

But surely one of the issues is why anyone would want to buy AEX now?

We're likely 12/18 months away from the revenues being generated and in the meantime there's companies like HUR who are much closer to flowing hydrocarbons.

And HUR have spent a year in the doldrums even though FOIL may just be a few months away.

[haggismchaggis] 17/7/2018 15:33

I said ii's would like it."EXCLUSIVE: Aminex CEO says 'Institutions are delighted' with Zubair farm-out terms"

[greyingsurfer] 17/7/2018 15:17

Interesting interview, and makes much clearer than the original announcement that the carry should cover most of AEX's costs to FFD, not just to the EPS.

[haideralifool] 17/7/2018 14:49

^ that is a useful interview, way better than MGW. Would it be fair to say that Ruvuma will be generating close to 1p of free cashflow PER SHARE per year to AEX?

Hypothetically if they wound up AEX and just let a buyer pick up that cashflow as a dividend, surely someone would be willing to pay way more than the 2p current SP?

[dunderheed] 17/7/2018 12:33

You'd be mad to short this share - nut because of the fundies - because of the loyal PI following, who are bound to dive in around 2p?!

[ronwilkes123] 17/7/2018 12:29

I can only imagine this is being shorted by someone who is aware of some need for funding - even malcy mentioned aminex share price odd movements yesterday

[ronwilkes123] 17/7/2018 12:26

Aminex writing its own death sentence for the bucket list I see. It’s ok though as crusty has sold

[haggismchaggis] 17/7/2018 12:13

Jurassic oil?Do you like Pyrite? ............ ARRRRRRR! :-D

[dunderheed] 17/7/2018 12:11

WTF buy out solo share? Press ahead, cash-call them in advance and, if they cant pay issue non payment notice then take back the equity. Normally takes 6 months?
Simples.