Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[gerryjames] 20/7/2018 09:13

WOW! 12 months now...This will be 10p by Christmas like you say. The lastest presentation is a corker. Wait until Warren Buffet sees it Suemchaggis, your hero. He'll not wait until the volatility has settled unlike the pension funds you mentioned...are doing.

Are pension funds off on a Friday sue?

[haggismchaggis] 20/7/2018 07:45

Blackgold, so the pipeline order might have to wait until after the 3D and Chikumbi-1, but the project plan and approvals can still be created today, as the pipeline will still be taking the same route to the Madimba gas processing plant.They can simply adjust timings for laying the pipe, and the project cost, once they have decided the pipe size based on the 3D and Chikumbi-1.

[blackgold00] 19/7/2018 22:24

i read somewhere or heard, that the pipe-line will be big enough to take the development to full production.



slide 4
"Based on results of CH-1 and 3D seismic, construct pipeline to allow for maximum gas delivery"

[haggismchaggis] 19/7/2018 21:37

HaiderAli, yes I noticed that too. When you consider they are targeting up-dip of Ntorya and up-dip of Likonde, in what looks like 3 or 4 different targets with one well, then the potential is definitely there for it to be 'a boomer'. Just 30-40mmcfd per zone, plus N1 and N2, for 140mmcfd.

I'm sure they will have the pipeline plans and all approvals in place by the time they test Chikumbi-1, as the pipeline is for the Ruvuma development, it's not just for Chikumbi-1. If Chikumbi-1 was just another 20mmcfd there would be other wells drilled, so the pipeline would still be needed, therefore there's no reason to wait for Chikumbi-1 before planning the pipeline and getting approvals.

If they have two pipeline size plans then ordering the pipes would have to wait for the result if Chikumbi-1 to see if it's 'a boomer'. But either way, with all the planning and preparation done, it would be possible to get the pipeline connected in 6 months.

In July last year they said it's just 32km to the Madimba gas processing plant. So not far, and no gas processing plant to build, and ARA to throw money at it.

[cperkin] 19/7/2018 20:44

The plan shows two potential pipe lines an 8 inch in phase 1 and then a 12 inch in phase 2. Anyone know the delivery capacity of these 2 pipes when full?

[haideralifool] 19/7/2018 20:23

haggis I just listened to that video again. It's around the 13.00 mark that he talks about the drill plans.

First off, if I heard/understood correctly JB says that if CH-1 is a 'boomer of a well' then 'it may be the only one', is that right? And then he seems to say that if it is just a good well they will drill others. So does that mean it could be possible to get the full 130mmscf/d (approx) capacity off the one well??

Whether you are right I guess depends on the length of the pipeline and whether they'd need any processing facilties, or is it just a matter of hooking up to existing facilities?

[haggismchaggis] 19/7/2018 19:17

HaiderAli,

Ok, thanks, I wondered where that came from.

Did they just put that as a conservative date to keep investors happy, and happier if it happens sooner than that? It's basically just a guesstimate anyway.

Watch the Jay video again and he's quite clear that he expects the result of Chikumbi-1 testing in early 2019. The pipeline could easily be laid and gas flowing by 3rd week of July with ARA pushing it. If they hit a lot of gas during drilling and are confident of the result, they would surely start ordering the pipeline from that point, not after testing.

And the pipeline is in the development plan given to the government by Aminex, so any pipeline planning or other approvals should be obtained before the end of this year, giving them a free run to install the pipeline once Chikumbi-1 is drilled, or even earlier, as the pipeline is based on full field development, not just the Chikumbi-1 well.

With good planning (something Zubair Corporation is no doubt paying lots of programme/project managers for!) there's no reason why the pipeline could not be in place and gas flowing in 1 year.

[ronwilkes123] 19/7/2018 18:25

Haider what are your thoughts on aminex - you post here but I get the impression you are quite bearish reading your posts elsewhere

[haideralifool] 19/7/2018 17:57

Haggis slide 5 of the latest presentation has cashflow from the EPS being generated from 01/20.

[haggismchaggis] 19/7/2018 16:20

Bun, you've said production in 18 months twice now, but from what Jay said in his interview I took it ARA were targeting 12 months to production. Drill Chikumbi-1 at the end of this year, results of testing in early 2019. Based on that, pipeline built and gas flow is possible by July.

[dunderheed] 19/7/2018 13:47

Guys wtgr please don't talk ridiculous like - there is no way Aex would be involved in anything like that and to suggest such is really quite silly!

My concern is that the reason they found themselves in such a weak position was due to years of continual mis management - effectively not knowing what they should know!

Now the question is - have they learnt from this or not?
You takes your bets folks!
All imho and dyor of course!

[lfdkmp] 19/7/2018 13:17

You might be quite close to the truth there gj. The only point I would contest is the big brown envelope. Why does it always have to be a brown envelope. Particularly in this age of diversity.

My vote goes for a fluorescent lime green envelope. Oh, and don't forget the smiley face in the top right corner.

[gerryjames] 19/7/2018 13:02

Does the cement factory close in the 40s.......?
I think now the management has secured it's immediate future and the Company. They should let the TDPC keep the money they are owed as a" good will gesture". And fast track the licence in return. In a big brown envelope.

[ronwilkes123] 19/7/2018 12:10

A large part of today’s selling is lastthrow selling another mil to pile into the miracle of nuog (or as it’s commonly known a placing ramp)

[bunbooster2] 19/7/2018 11:09

Well, in the latest interview Jay says he expects the cost of CH-1 plus the EPS to take up about 15 million of the carry. So Solo need to raise 15 million dollars for a minimum annual income of 12 million starting in roughly 18 months time. That income should rise and will continue until the 2040s.

[greyingsurfer] 19/7/2018 08:21

Of course it's a farm in, Gerry.

[gerryjames] 19/7/2018 07:51

Swala, funny how they are the only O@G Company ever listed on the Dar Es Salaam stock exchange. Now having timming issues with their latest IPO.

18 months WOW...not really a farm-in though was it Bun. The big rich company had to fund the skint small Company's licence application. Because nobody else would anymore. More like a distressed sale.

[bunbooster2] 18/7/2018 22:40

Well, if Solo are ever going to get a farm out of Ruvuma now is the time. Big company with no funding issues just farmed in, other partner on a free carry and looking at going to production in 18 months.

[dunderheed] 18/7/2018 13:12

Hang on RR - you don't know the details of the JV and voting rights.
As operator there will be a development budget which will be voted upon - for sure a lot of 'foreign / psc' type arrangements I have worked on only require a maximum 75 % +1 partners votes (and though not explicit would obviously require the NOC votes).
If one junior partner does not agree to this or votes against it - all well and good re their respective relations with the govt.!
There are over riding "pre emption" exemptions which will include funding proof plus proof of operatorship (if this is entailed) as well?
At the end of the day if solo don't have the money then unfortunately that is their bad luck.
I would expect there to be a clear budget in the submission plan anyway which would include the development drilling and P50 estimates of costs? I don't know but ministry approval of this would probably invoke their respective budget approval for this submission which solo would have had an opportunity to push back on at the time.
If their wasn't a budget submission with this development plan (strange but...) then I am sure there will be t's and c's which invoke a specific time period to get this agreed upon approval of said plan.
If solo think they can 'hold things up' by not approving budgets or not having the cash and if the government want this online in appropriate fast time lines I think you'll find very quickly that solo either tow the line or lose their assets or worst case (for the venture) get carried pro-rata for a quite high interest charge (paid out of their profit gas).
So whilst potentially problematic I don't see it as being quite such an issue re Panoro which does seem quite an extreme!!
Agree totally re Malcy though lol!!
All imho and dyor of course folks!!

[greyingsurfer] 18/7/2018 13:06

That is why, IMHO, Jay made a mistake not to enter any negotiations at the start with SOLOWe certainly don't know that's the case, and I wouldn't assume it is.Peter

[red rook] 18/7/2018 12:46

Don't see what's odd with the trades! People are selling and the share price is moving down. Malcy mostly gets things wrong.

I have had AEX on my watchlist for a while. I think the assets have great potential. However, I am happy to remain on the sidelines and see what transpires. Going by the reaction to the shareprice after the announcement of the deal, and corporate presentation, I suspect many other potential investors are doing the same and existing ones not topping up!

I watched Jay's interview. I have a few issues with it, but the issue that I think needs to be cleared first is the SOLO problem, as I pointed out in my previous post. Just because the Zub's will be the senior partner and operator will not mean that they can dictate to the other partners, what, when and at what cost operations will be done. They have to get agreement and consensus between ALL the partners. Otherwise they can end up in court. I suggest people read up on the example I gave regarding Panoro Energy. They were the junior partner with ony around 6%, who took the senior partner & operator, as well as the other partner (MXO), to court and got them to agree to their terms !

That is why, IMHO, Jay made a mistake not to enter any negotiations at the start with SOLO. I do not think there would have been any resistance from SOLO in this approach. This would have removed any potential issues from occurring in the near future, as well as strengthening their hand in any negotiations. With the C1 drill expected to occur by the end of the year, if SOLO 'do a Panoro' and timelines are extened it will be AEX that will suffer most. The Zubars are a private company and will not be effected. They are not answerable to PIs and the market to the same extent. The current market reaction may be in part due to the uncertainty that all this has created. AIMHO.

[ronwilkes123] 18/7/2018 12:34

V odd share price movements here - as malcy commented

[dunderheed] 18/7/2018 10:18

Yes sounds reasonable as long as they can get funds for ch1.
I don't think a defence that it was a sudden cash-call would suffice for solo though because this has been going on for quite some time (lol) and things do move very quickly in o&g when green lights appear?

[stonefold] 18/7/2018 09:34

If they want a listing and to have a reputation that would encourage future investors then they could learn what not to do from the example of VOG.

VOG tried to squash their smaller partner (seize their working interest) with what was IMO and unjustified and sudden cash call.
After years of legal expense the smaller partner won the dispute and had their rights restored. That greed and stupidity did not help VOG's reputation and it was a further waste of its shareholders' money.

SOLO will probably stay on for the CH1 drill then see what price they could get to sell.

Or perhaps SOLO might stay longer in the project by applying for something like:

".....Signing of three year US$10 million Credit Facility for Morocco

SDX Energy Inc. (TSXV, AIM: SDX), the North Africa focused oil and gas company, is pleased to announce that, through its subsidiary SDX Energy Morocco (Jersey) Limited, it intends to sign later today a Facility Agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ("EBRD") for the provision of a three year US$10 million Reserves Based Lending Credit Facility with an 'Accordion' feature taking total potential availability up to US$20 million (the "Facility").

The Facility will be available for use in Morocco and will provide the Company with an additional liquidity source and the ability to optimize its cost of capital for the funding of customer connection infrastructure and future drilling and field development costs. .........."