Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[kevjones2] 12/10/2017 22:14

Apropos of an earlier post, how does one get a 'bum rush'? I know how one gets a bum rash but bum rush is new to me.

[haggismchaggis] 12/10/2017 21:42

Didn't know IOG had £14m of debt and is running on a loan note.

AEX well past that stage, debt paid off, now profitable operations. Far less risk.

[skinwalker] 12/10/2017 18:04

Looks like Haggis has found a friend.

[edgar222] 12/10/2017 12:48

Thanks Haggis.Yes AEX much further down the line than IOG but they plan a lot of production in either late 2018 or early 2019 (cant remember which!)

[haggismchaggis] 12/10/2017 11:37

Yes Edgar, CPR will add to the NPV as it's recoverable resources. The broker/research notes will have an NPV in them.NPV is what the stock should be worth in a fire sale, so it should trade at that or close to it. Many companies trade at multiples of NPV. 3x NPV for a profitable company paying a dividend. IOG still a long way from production. I've no idea of their cash position, profitability, planed further drilling costs, etc.AEX profitable, near term plans for more production, more drilling to increase the NPV, good cash position.

[edgar222] 12/10/2017 10:44

HaggisAm in IOG and am reading about NPV (net present value) being £320m odd. And am also reading that a good valuation is 40% of NPV or £1.20 per share (currently 27p)I dont know if AEX have a NPV ? Is that something we are expecting in the upcoming indy CPR?

[haggismchaggis] 12/10/2017 10:28

IOG CPR confirms 303 bcf of 2p and pushes them up over 70% today.

AEX CPR confirming x bcf of 2p, how much higher will we go?

And our bcf much quicker to market.

[skinwalker] 11/10/2017 09:32

Edgar! It appears to me you're suffering from AS4 (Aminex Syndrome category 4) This is an extremely serious condition. There is no known cure for AS3, and AS4 is an entirely new mutation. Best to sit quietly and think of anything other than Aminex for at least a week, and see if symptoms persist. Do not, repeat do not, discuss Aminex with any other party.

[warbaby43] 11/10/2017 07:32

The licence extensions, if and when they come, might be interesting.

[edgar222] 10/10/2017 21:35

Haggis

Agreed.

But my point to Peter was that Cove went for over 1bn with no route to market and gas like that still has a value.

[haggismchaggis] 10/10/2017 19:58

In about 10 years when they've finally built the LNG infrastructure, and that gas will then all be exported.The onshore gas is the higher priority for the Tanzania Government. Getting electric and gas to industry and the public is the #1 priority. AEX are in a very good position. The offshore gas can wait for the infrastructure, at the same time the drilling increases the total available gas resources. Once the LNG infrastructure is in place and gas is exported, Tanzania can pay off the loans for the onshore gas infrastructure.

[edgar222] 10/10/2017 19:26

PeterUnderstand your point. Disagree. Has the Ex-Cove gas got a route to market yet?

[gerryjames] 10/10/2017 17:46

The name is sueyou1 Peter. Not Haggis. 10 years in the wilderness and still nursing a paper loss. Lol. Still ramping oil.

[greyingsurfer] 10/10/2017 16:37

Edgar/HaggisAEX has 1.3TCF in the ground now and trades at 4p on a good day. How can you say it's worth 16p NOW? And then suggest it will be worth more once there is a market for the gas? It's valued where it is now because that market is not developed yet.Yes of course it will be worth more once the market develops and that's one reason why it's a good investment, but I can't see how fantasy valuations and talking about very unlikely oil discoveries as though they are next to certain helps anyone at all with sensible discussion about the investment case.Peter

[gerryjames] 10/10/2017 16:24

Edgar not sure if you took Bunbooster's earlier advice about diversification seriously? A lot have lost everything in Africa. Because of corruption. The cement guy is having a go at the bulldozer over loss of investment, what with the licence debarcle aex is having to jump hoops through and such. Not straight forward but good luck with that. Obviously trading it has been the best way to make money over the years. Like Thompson did. Ex director. He wasn't stupid enough to wait on finding oil. That's a mugs' game as we know.

[edgar222] 10/10/2017 14:48

Bun

The licence will help

The early production will help

The new power plant that needs gas coming online will help

A buyout offer by Zubair will help

N3 confirmed as a drill will help

The market is imperfect. It is how we can make money. It is why I am buying again now.

[last throw] 10/10/2017 12:33

bb

methinks a firkin good RNS!

LT

[bunbooster2] 10/10/2017 12:23

What do you think it will take to see that reflected in the share price?

[edgar222] 10/10/2017 12:08

1.3TCF gas in ground now is 13-16p per share IMHO.

Pipeline connection or a plan to sell the gas is worth more. IMHO

[bunbooster2] 10/10/2017 11:33

Edgar - What value would you place on the the 1.3 TCF gas at Ntorya?

[edgar222] 10/10/2017 11:14

Of course, Haggis, if you make the oil find 500m barrels then the figures lead to a share price of over £1.10.Now that would be ok with me.

[haggismchaggis] 10/10/2017 10:26

Thanks Edgar. Here's hoping we get a nice oil reward for holding the stock for nearly a decade!

[acwill] 10/10/2017 10:25

RNS tomorrow then. You gotta love the leaks from this lot.

[edgar222] 10/10/2017 09:50

Haggis

I genuinely have no clue! The size of the find, the ease of extraction and all sorts of other variables are too difficult to call.

But I know that if you value 150m barrels at $10 per barrel in the ground you get to $1.5bn.

If that was pounds not dollars it is 50p per share.

And what if there was more? And what if the updated basin model after an oil strike identified other oil spots.

Too many variables and what ifs to even guess but it will be lots !