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[temmujin] 06/5/2017 10:50

big news next week...hence directors buying...solo probably react stronger

[dan_the_epic] 06/5/2017 10:26

Although one thinks that if he was so confident of there being a massive amount of oil, he wouldn't have left.

No-one spends over a decade of their life on a geological region where they suspect there is a huge, gamechanging find, then leaves.

I question whether he became less enthused by the opportunity. Also remember that Tullow walked away during L1, with suspicions because of a lack of oil potential.....

[haggismchaggis] 06/5/2017 10:03

foolsandcows,

A couple of my previous posts on the Mike Rego presentation. Remember too that NR was talking about oil at Ntorya back in March too, but cut off his presentation by indicating he couldn't say any more.

Anyone new to AEX should watch the Mike Rego presentation, as this is about the oil that Jay is now seeking.

haggismchaggis
05 Mar 2017
17:31:39
61650 of 63802
Mike Rego, around 30m into the presentation he starts talking about Likonde possibly having a 'liquid rim', he then goes on to say it will be interesting to see when N2 is tested, to see the condensate levels, as this could further demonstrate the 'liquid rim' theory which would be "good news" for the oil story.

His calculations show potential for 39.38bn barrels of oil migrated from the offshore, if only 10% of the jurassic source oil is trapped.

For the permo-trias his estimate is 78bn barrels of oil trapped, which is 10% of the hydrocarbons expelled by the gas in the offshore traps.

He says the above figures are conservative!!!!

He says "what happened to this 78bn barrels of oil". He shows that the oil would have migrated from trap to trap in the channel fan system that the offshore and Ruvuma are part of, to the near shore and onshore.


haggismchaggis
05 Mar 2017
17:10:45
61648 of 63802
NR in his presentation, when he mentions the oil he then refers to Mike Rego's earlier presentation at the same event.

The links below are for Mike Rego's presentation, it's all about finding the elusive East Africa oil.

The early part of the presentation covers East Africa. Further on he covers the issues with 2D seismic, the kind of issues that have shown up at L1, N1 and N2. He covers 3D seismic, and there's a table showing prices that indicate we could get 4km sq of 3D seismic over N3 for just $60k to $100k, which seems like a no-brainer to me to ensure precise targeting of the best spots to drill.

He says 5 people in that room met last year to look at finding the oil, my money would be on NR being one of those 5.

Many wells in the area have oil shows, there are also oil seeps etc. "There's clearly oil along the margins". "There's a lot of oil sloshing around".

Good evidence for two families of oil, based on biomarkers and isotope ratios. Lower to basal middle jurassic, permo-trias is the other. No evidence so far that there's a Cretaceous oil presence. (so where did N2 get oil if it's hit the Cretaceous??

[dunderheed] 06/5/2017 09:53

Edgar no problem and I do agree, but by filtering this person we risk missing certain points that may have been hidden or certainly I wanted more clarification on.
Whilst I appreciate the directors are in a difficult position regarding current state of play (my own opinion being their geological model was out of kilter and luckily came in on upside!) I think they could be better at how they disseminate what they do know and, the levels of risk attached to this? Anyway best of luck to all!

[edgar222] 06/5/2017 09:39

Oh Dunderheed we will have to agree to differ on ngms' impartiality.When he holds he is positive and when he does not he is negative.Had years of it here until I hit filter.The post you quote from me only said Who? Having repeated another posters comment.

[dunderheed] 06/5/2017 09:34

Edgar I'm surprised at your post 63793.
We need a side of reality on this board as well as optimistic upside, or this will become another waste of time like so many others on adv.
I am an impartial observer in that whilst I have a few million aex (certainly not as many on here) my life really will not be affected either way what happens to share price.
However I always have time for ngms posts which are at least based on facts and not posted ad infinitum which just becomes plain boring. There now appears to be a board 'appreciation / recognition' for certain posters now whose posts are merely opinion which, whilst based on certain disclosed facts are erring on significant optimism.
I am not saying I disagree with such optimistic views however to claim specialism for 'spotting' or hypothisising such things is crass at best and dangerous at worst, for other less technical readers who go on to attribute greater importance, to what i see as anything better than 'educated / wiki' guesses.
This is all imho and just a post to try to redress a little balance in here. No doubt I'll get filtered now by certain posters, lol.

[haggismchaggis] 06/5/2017 09:32

foolsandcows,

I think you need to look at the depth of L1 vs N1, the depth of L1 vs N2, and on the presentation the depth of L1 vs N3.

From the geological point of view L1 is in a different place to N1 and N2 and N3. Also, as per my posts from TPDC and the Mike Rego presentation, there are two different sources of oil. What this gives us is two potential oil bearing zones at N3, not one.

[dan_the_epic] 06/5/2017 09:31

Serious question guys; I'm genuinely interested in this one...

How did you all come across Aminex?

[substp] 06/5/2017 09:25

And again... the Tanzania Gov....

[joe_e] 06/5/2017 09:19

Kev 63756 Your post on the black stuff over the ground is good.Just a few points if I may. Guinness is not black its RED.One needs to be carefully where you indulge as a lot of dangerous chemical's are used to clean the pipes which are not fully flushed out by the contractors who are in a hurry for the next job.Should always smell your pint before you drink it.For some reason can't drink it out of any glass has to be the original thin glass. Also if you ask for your pint to be finished the same way as was started (towards bar person) no gas better pint.The youth of today haven't a clue.Cheers.

[substp] 06/5/2017 09:15

The problem isn't with AEX but with the Tanzania Gov.. I think it will take many years to create a demand for the gas.... A close read encouraged.

[foolsandcows] 06/5/2017 08:39

If bio markers are not linked then maybe the oil is from lower source rocks and has created an oily rim at nt-2.

[dan_the_epic] 06/5/2017 08:17

I may be imagining it, but weren't the lower sands at N1 water wet?

[foolsandcows] 06/5/2017 08:07

Maybe they will announce at AGM presentation the bio markers in the cuttings are the same in the lower section corresponding to the migration theory. They did say...

'Further petrophysical analysis
of Ntorya-1 underway
incorporating new data and
learnings from Ntorya-2'

[foolsandcows] 06/5/2017 08:02

The lower sand is connected between Nt-1 & 2 possibly lower Likonde sands also? This is where the oil has migrated through. Hopefully trapped up-dip at Nt-3?

[bunbooster2] 06/5/2017 03:15

Yeah, pipeline capacity is 700. A government bloke recently said he expected that to reach full capacity within ten years. I wouldn't be surprised if Ntorya gas doesn't come online for another five years. That's fine. Plenty of value creation at the exploration stage.

[shabbadabbadoo2] 06/5/2017 02:28

a quick and easy way to see what the government think the demand will become is to look at the pipe capacity.

[bunbooster2] 06/5/2017 01:32

el_dorado - It's a point of discussion but I don't buy the idea that WRL will supply all new gas demand. Existing demand is being met from KN-1 and WRL. It makes no sense for TPDC to favour a single provider from an encouraging investment or security of supply perspective. I do buy the possibility that once KN-1 is at capacity all new demand would be provided by WRL without TPDC funding any infrastructure to bring Ntorya online.

We're mid 2017. We're looking at a supply shortfall in 2018. So you could certainly trade it and look to buy in again in a couple of years... but in that timeframe you're going to see the NT-3 drill, dev license for Ntorya, large gas demand increase with the completion of gas plants and who knows what corporate activity (farm outs, farm ins). I'd definitely like to see a farm out of Ruvuma and farm in somewhere else to diversify.

And if they do hit oil at NT-3 (or WRL do at Tembo) then bloody hell! Whole new valuation.

[el_dorado] 06/5/2017 00:46

AEX's mcap has increased from USD 30-40m to +/- USD 200m over the last year and much, if not all of the potential in the stock is already included in today's share price Compared to it's closest competitors, AEX is extremely overpriced. Be careful.
From the WRL-forum at LSE:

Wentworth seems very confident that they will supply all new demand for gas. Read page 12-13.

Decreasing pressure at Kiliwani N
No route to the market for Ntorya
A lot of investments to be done
Further dilutions, less value per share, less upside (if any)
All of the potential already included in today's SP

May be it's time to sell, take profit and perhaps buy cheaper in a year or two?

[tauroctinus] 05/5/2017 23:26

Ive' been both a bear and a bull in the past. More a bull than a bear, hope I'm eventually proved right

[dan_the_epic] 05/5/2017 23:01

Haggis really is doing himself a disservice by filtering half the board. At least most here are reasonable investors who don't stick their head in the clouds.

[lfdkmp] 05/5/2017 22:10

perfect answer, haggis. Thanks.

[lfdkmp] 05/5/2017 22:09

tauroctinus

Did you use to be a bear?

My Latin is a tad rusty