Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[blackgold00] 04/5/2017 08:15

i'm thinking, hoping, that the BOD would had waited until PT had finished unloading his stock. they would have had that info? yes good move by them.

i wonder what the story is behind PT, why he left and had to off-load his holding in Aminex like he has?

[tmmalik] 04/5/2017 08:10

Soon back to 5.50 which is true value with current information

[haggismchaggis] 04/5/2017 08:05

Bit of a scramble this morning LOL!!I'll stick to being long term, keeping my holdings in certs in my wall safe, none of the drops or scaremongering affect me, no need to worry about a big seller having to be cleared, etc.

[haggismchaggis] 04/5/2017 07:52

Blackgold, nothing we could have done to stop the drop, short of having a spare £5m in the bank to buy up all PT's sells and all the short sells, Hence why as I said it was just a short-term blip until the overhang and shorters are cleared.

I can't see any shorter having a short remain open after the RNS this morning, as the BOD could carry on buying at these prices, and so could everyone else based on the BOD indicating the stock is cheap in their eyes.

[haggismchaggis] 04/5/2017 07:46

Pump N dumper....

csmwssk12hu4 May '17 - 07:43 - 63670 of 63670 0 0 (Filtered)

[csmwssk12hu] 04/5/2017 07:43

Keep an eye on SRES tin mcap lots of assets just announced going to break itself up imho dyor

[blackgold00] 04/5/2017 07:43

has PT finished dumping? see what happens today. haggis, you couldn't make this up,

[haggismchaggis] 04/5/2017 07:40

Good to see Directors buying up some of the overhang caused by PT dumping his holding. I hope this is a clear signal that all the consolidation scaremongering should be ignored.

[haggismchaggis] 04/5/2017 07:38

Glavey,

PT announced his initial sell to AEX on 9 March, yes he HAS been selling millions every day since then, not just from 28th April. The shares he was selling filled up the MM's books, the house brokers likely also took some to help support the company, but as PT kept on selling there was nowhere for the stock to go apart from ballooning the MM's books, causing a stock overhang and associated price drop, as the MM's were no longer willing to give him any more money than they had to for the stock.

MM's leaked the situation to shorter buddies or paid trolls. Their job was to bash the stock to make it look like there was something wrong with AEX that was causing the drop, a cover-up of deceit, lies, and scaremongering, to get the price down and force PT out at the lowest price.

PT went under 3% holding on 9 March so he has no obligation to report his holding to AEX. It might help if people actually read the RNS, then they might at least have a clue what's going on!!

[talkman2] 04/5/2017 07:31

The massive problem verhzng was probably cleared yesterday . The cluster buying by the BOD should restore some confidence. This should start to re -rate . In light of recent news the sell -off has been crazy but due to shorter sand a former director selling a significant amount of shares .

[gerryjames] 04/5/2017 07:30

Close to the AGM. Giving comfort.

[blackgold00] 04/5/2017 07:30

well it certainly gives me some comfort

[earnestwipplethwaiteiii] 04/5/2017 07:27

It's the implications of their buying that are important; why would senior directors be buying at this stage if there were any doubts about corporate plans?

[888icb] 04/5/2017 07:21

We saw some serious volume yesterday so it will be interesting to see if that continues today.

[gerryjames] 04/5/2017 07:19

LT do you think the joint purchaces may be in response to your missive. Two directors buying at 4p yesterday. Putting a floor on the SP, maybe.

[temmujin] 04/5/2017 07:18

directors buying..BOOM!

[jamiedodge] 04/5/2017 07:08

Did someone say they were reporting tem....

[temmujin] 03/5/2017 23:50

farm out deal to be announced tomoro by all accounts....hence the silly drop today

[glavey] 03/5/2017 23:37

lithological heterogeneities
3 May '17 - 06:33 - 63546

"in all the years i have been investing i have found that the share price almost always falls post consolidation in the short term.

medium to longterm it is good for the share price

short term is rarely good."


There is more historic evidence to suggest it has an apparent negative medium term benefit than there is to suggest it is in anyway good.

Longterm who is to know, save for that it may be repeated.

(Anyone come across a share consolidation that has later resulted in a similar share split?)

[glavey] 03/5/2017 23:27

edgar222
3 May '17 - 07:58 - 63558

"I don't accept... etc.
There is an ex Director selling tens of millions of shares in the market and a hiatus between news items."

It is surely a folly to suggest it's just coincidence and he waited until 28th Apr. to dump as many as possible. It would not be in said ex Directors interest to trash the share price by 20%.

That there is a hiatus (and, perhaps, a known seller) is why the timing is poor.

If the effect was entirely neutral then there is no need for any consolidation in the eyes of anybody.


"edgar222
3 May '17 - 08:20 - 63565
That would be a rational reason to sell. Consolidation is not"

The point is: Investing / share trading activity and the resulting share price is not rational.

[dan_the_epic] 03/5/2017 22:53

On top of that, as you say, they could delay payables and repayment of the corporate loan (And almost certainly will), so have a degree more flexibility than the 3,220k working capital surplus I posited suggests, but it's still hardly a position of strength even at 5,000k or 7,000k in liquidity. Fundamentally the stock will probably weaken if they continue to pile on liabilities on the balance sheet. I expect the G&A expense to be a decent whack higher than the base I used up there.

All in all, the liquidity position is OK at best. But when set aside the current market cap and the required expenditures as per the companies PSAs/ the company's internal plans, it looks pretty damn light.

[edgar222] 03/5/2017 22:40

BunToo tired to look now but i think the final results had the loan down to 2.4m

[dan_the_epic] 03/5/2017 22:03

My actual numbers are at home, but here are what I can fathom from the tiny print in the RNS release that look remotely familiar....

At 31st Dec. Net cash of 14,636k USD and net current payables of 3,646k USD.

Net working capital of 10,990k USD.

Aminex share of KN1 revs at approx 6,600k GBP per annum, or 8,570k. 3 and a half months worth (factoring in outage) - 2,552k USD since start of the year.

Estimating well cost of 9,000k. Estimating interest costs on debt of 370K. Estimating G&A runrate conservatively (given drilling activity) at same run rate as 2016 so 950k since start of the year.

10,990k + 2,552k - 9,000k - 370k - 950k gives a small working capital surplus of approx 3,220k.

Pretty weak position to be in IMO and hence why market cap looks vulnerable even at this level. This is why price weakness will continue IMO. Will almost certainly need fresh funds to be able to develop anything given likely g&A run rate and KN1 lower than expected output.

[bunbooster2] 03/5/2017 21:31

Looking at the financial reports current assets at Dec 2016 they had 19.5m (-1.25m being "held for partners") cash at bank, which largely came from the equity raise with funds earmarked for the two wells. I'd say 8-9 m has been spent on NT-2 and the remainder of the firepower is for the next well.

They've told us they are continuing to pay down the loan (in Dec 2016 was 5m, apparently it is now down to 3m) and plan to pay it off by Q3 before the due date on Jan 2018. So I imagine there is some room for flexibility there as well - they could push back loan repayments (and still meet the due date) to free up working capital.

What are your figures Dan?