Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[vike1] 18/5/2016 14:34

If talks fail and no extension is provided, I believe there could be a claim on part of KN1. As part of the PSA, AEX do have a right to apply for an extension though. JB emphasised that TPDC are interested in Ruvuma getting developed, not in stripping away holdings.

It's up to mgmt to be able to line up their ducks to show they deserve the extension and have a plan in place. W/o providing details, I got the impression talks are at an advanced stage.

[blackgold00] 18/5/2016 13:58

thanks Vike1, 30mmcfd would be great.

did they give any indication that they might have to give up part of the Ruvuma license with the (Extension talks)

[blackgold00] 18/5/2016 13:55

warbaby, yes, Namisange is in Mtwara, what i'm saying is Aminex might have to negotiate giving up 50% of Ruvuma as a whole, maybe 25% Mtwara and 25% Lindi which might or might not contain the prospects Namisange and Sudi depending where the line is drawn. The map above is the old map prier to the last time we had to give up part of the Ruvuma license

new map

[vike1] 18/5/2016 13:53

No material news from the AGM, but here are a few key takeaways from the AGM I jotted down:

- Extension talks underway, and is reasonable to expect it will be granted in coming months. Sounds like this is needed for financing, so expect in 1-2 order
- 'reasonable' to expect extension, financing, drill bit down by late summer
- KN1 has been invoiced for April, but TPDC has an option to pay within 6 months. May invoice will be shorter time period (e.g. c.3mos). Once commissioned, payment expected at end of each month
- KN1 flowing well, expect 30mcfd to be the agreed flow rate. Sticking to guns of USD1m net net net net net (pure cash flow to company)

In all, and as I said on another Board, in my view, shorters of this stock are going to lose a lot of money.

[kevjones2] 18/5/2016 13:33

All resolutions passed (shocker).

[warbaby43] 18/5/2016 12:50

bg, suggest you look again at the map above - Namisange is in Mtwara area, not Lindi, the prime prospects in which appear to be Sudi and Kiswa. The loss of such a large chunk of the Ruvuma PSA as Lindi would be a severe blow to AEX's already virtually non-existent credibility.

Hopefully, someone at the AGM will have had the gumption to question them closely on so central a subject as the Ruvuma licence situation especially as we know from Updates that negotiations over these obligations have been going on for over twelve months now.

[bunbooster2] 18/5/2016 11:04

I read it that Aminex alone will forfeit 15% of the Kiliwani North Dev License. Can't really see any other way to read it.

[blackgold00] 18/5/2016 10:54

what i don't quite get warbaby is, if

"Aminex has agreed to provide security over the Kiliwani North Development Licence to guarantee the amended well drilling obligations for the second extension period."

does this then mean, that if Aminex fails to fulfill in part or all its obligations to drill the 4 wells, will Aminex have to forfeit part of the Ruvuma license as well as the agreed % of KN. Thinking about it, i'd imagine they would have to lose a part of Ruvuma as well, i believe a 50% relinquishment is written into the PSA if obligations not met, so maybe they'll negotiate or are negotiating to keep the appraisal area Lokonde/Ntorya and losing Namisange/Sudi, which in my books would not be the end of the world.

[warbaby43] 18/5/2016 10:17

GamesPlayer, looks as though Solo holders can rest easy (on this issue, at least.)
Here is the relevant passage from p49 pf the AEX 2014 money raise Prospectus:

"The second extension period commenced in
December 2013 and will end in December 2016. Under the terms of the PSA, the work programme for
the second extension period requires the partners to carry out additional geological and geophysical
studies as deemed necessary and for two exploration wells to be drilled (one in each concession area).
The minimum expenditure required is US$4.5 million in each concession area. As the partners plan an
extensive 2D seismic survey over both concession areas, including seismic over the potential appraisal
area incorporating the Ntorya and Ntorya up-dip prospects, the Tanzanian authorities have agreed that
Aminex and its partners may amend the work programme so that the two wells required under the first
extension period are transferred to the second extension period, thereby requiring four wells to be drilled
in the final period. In return Aminex has agreed to provide security over the Kiliwani North Development
Licence to guarantee the amended well drilling obligations for the second extension period. For each
well drilled on the Ruvuma PSA, TPDC’s security interest over the Kiliwani North Development Licence
will be reduced by 3 per cent. for the first well and 4 per cent. thereafter."

As you will note, it is quite specific that it is Aminex, and not the partnership, which is providing the security. At that stage, Solo had no interest in Kiliwani and it would seem extremely unlikely that Ritson would agree to any of the security obligation being hived off to Solo in their transaction.

The other aspect to note is the obligation for 2 x $4.5m of expenditure.

Gonna be interesting to see if there is clarification on this, or on owt else, at the AGM today.

[skinwalker] 17/5/2016 22:02

Thank-you Blackgold - but you've omitted the Tanzanian for DOG!

[stinkypeet] 17/5/2016 21:39

Fundamentally disagree; TDPC will back in to 5%, 10% or 15% 15% % as is their want. It will apply evenly over the whole Ndovu holding. This has been up front all along and all parties have been aware of the "contingencies". They are also part of the Ruvuma PSA agreement and so, in my opinion share the downside risks alongside with the upside.

[greyingsurfer] 17/5/2016 21:10

Ritson would be likely to be able to make the very strong point that it has been AEX's continuing cash problem that was the obstacle to the partnership failing to meet its licence obligations.

Solo seem to be having trouble coming up with the cash to buy their share of KN-1 so I can't see that making a very strong argument. Had AEX had the cash to move ahead without looking for partners or additional finance prior to now I'm not sure how Solo would have been able to come up with their share.

Peter

[warbaby43] 17/5/2016 20:32

Different people might have different interpretations, GamesPlayer, whether the up to 15% comes off 95% (allowing for TPDC's 5%) or just off AEX's share. My own is the latter given that Ritson would be likely to be able to make the very strong point that it has been AEX's continuing cash problem that was the obstacle to the partnership failing to meet its licence obligations.

Perhaps, clarification on this point might also be sought at tomorrow's AGM by those attending.

[gamesplayer] 17/5/2016 19:44

Hi Warbaby,
Have come here via the Solo board. Hoping you can help shed light - Does the potential 15% Kiliwani penalty affect Solo or is it limited to Aminex?
Thanks,
GP

[blackgold00] 17/5/2016 16:35

Saying Dog in European Languages, i like the Polish way skin

Language..... Ways to say dog

Albanian...... qen
Basque....... Txakurra
Belarusian... саб;акk2;
Bosnian...... pas
Bulgarian.... куч;е
Catalan...... gos
Croatian..... pas
Czech........ pes
Danish....... hund
Dutch........ hond
Estonian.... koer
Finnish...... koira
French...... chien
Galician.... can
German.... Hund
Greek....... σκύλος
Hungarian.. kutya
Icelandic... hundur
Irish.......... madra
Italian....... cane
Latvian..... suns
Lithuanian.. šuo
Macedonian. куч;е
Maltese...... kelb
Norwegian.. hund
Polish....... pies
Portuguese.. cachorro
Romanian... câine
Russian.... соб;акk2;
Serbian.... пас;
Slovak.... pes
Slovenian.. pes
Spanish... perro
Swedish.. hund
Ukrainian.. пес;
Welsh..... ci
Yiddish.... הונ;ט
Tanzanian....mbwa

[skinwalker] 17/5/2016 16:11

How many ways are there to spell DOG?

[kevjones2] 17/5/2016 16:01

Fair point on the Bhattacherjee/'whole bod' issue, Warbaby. Nevertheless, the buck stops with the CEO.

On an aside, a poster here posted triumphalist bs when the GSA was finally approved. Many posters including myself fully expected the GSA to be signed but were appalled at what Warbaby beautifully describes as the "credibility shredding RNSs and Updates stretching back into 2014 indicating the "imminence" of the GSA and production kick-off". They are why I'd like to see Bhattacherjee go.

I did like his smile though. Remember how we discussed his smile at such length....

[warbaby43] 17/5/2016 15:47

Meanwhile, would it be too much to hope for from the AGM for some real clarity to emerge on the Ruvuma and Ntorya licence situations.

The Ntorya Appraisal Licence expired in June 2015 and while an extension was at the Minister's discretion, there has been no indication that any such extension had been obtained. Now, however, on p12 of the most recent presentation we read of a "Right to apply for three year extension ending 2019." So was an extension from June 2015 through into 2016 obtained and, if so, why were shareholders not updated accordingly - it would have been one spot of rare positive news unless some particularly onerous condition/obligations were being imposed.

With the Ruvuma Licence, this had been extended to December 2016 with a 2 + 2 explo drills obligation attached subject to incremental penalties of up to 15% of Kiliwani. Now, also on p12, we read of a "Right to apply for one year extension ending 2017" while in the AR we read of attempts to obtain TPDC's agreement to these explo drill obligations being varied in favour of Ntorya production development. However, we know from previous Updates that those negotiations have been going on for over twelve months and given how absolutely central the Kiliwani asset is and how damaging the loss of 15% of it would be, some sense of where AEX stand on the Ruvuma Licence and its obligations would be most helpful, to say the least.

[warbaby43] 17/5/2016 15:18

KevJones2, it seems to me that you are being slightly unfair in making Bhattacherjee the fall guy for the whole board. While it might have been him in front of the cameras with the lovelies, the authorship of what he said, along with that of all those credibility shredding RNSs and Updates stretching back into 2014 indicating the "imminence" of the GSA and production kick-off, resided with the whole of the BoD of Aminex and not just with him.

[kevjones2] 17/5/2016 14:01

I think the KN results will be ok. What would encourage IIs and some PIs to invest would be if Bhattacherjee resigned. He's set himself up nicely with huge profits if the share price ever goes up. Only the utterly deluded and those with zero business knowledge could possibly consider his tenure as CEO as anything other than disastrous. He knows this too and so does the market. If he does stay on he'll need far more than good KN results to save his job.

[blackgold00] 17/5/2016 12:50

i'm not expecting any significant news tomorrow, they'll need the grant of options news further back in the rear-view mirror first before any share price moving news is released, or you know what Mr ngms will quite rightly say. not that i think they have any yet to release.

news that is, like KN production rate agreement, re-financing/farm-in , announcing Ntroya-2 drilling-rig contract, plus agreement with TPDC re; Ruvuma license and the drilling obligation. so maybe a month at lest?

i believe, that all is now hinging on the KN production rate.

[edgar222] 17/5/2016 12:42

Long is to the third ntorya drill, by which I mean the second of the currently planned ones.

[blackgold00] 17/5/2016 12:35

how long is long? i know how-high, he's a China-man