Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[bunbooster2] 12/9/2015 13:34

Here's a decent overview. A slide towards the end shows the new gas power plants in 2015 and 2016 - hxxp://www.usea.org/sites/default/files/event-/Tanzania%20Power%20Sector.pdf

[jacks13] 12/9/2015 13:27

blackgold, that article overlooks the thermal efficiency of the process. A turbine rated at 1000kW will generate 1000kWh every hour but the the energy (gas) that must be delivered to the turbine will be greater. If the plant has an overall efficiency of say 33% the amount of gas required will be the thermal equivalent of 3000kWh.

[warbaby43] 12/9/2015 13:21

On a number of occasions I have expressed some scepticism on just how much gas Tanzania's power generation capacity could absorb, but as I recall Bunbooster2 did a considerable amount of research on this last year including unearthing a schedule of new power plants due to come on stream over the next few years.

Even allowing for the large pinch of salt to be taken with any Tanzanian schedule for anything, that did mitigate some of the concerns I had expressed. Any chance you still have that schedule on file to put up again, Bunbooster2?

[nash81] 12/9/2015 01:31

with the oil/gas price still predicted to go even lower - see Goldman sach today, how will AEX do this year? will we need any further cash call?

it was 2p a couple of years ago when i was in, now still the same?

[blackgold00] 12/9/2015 01:06

this might be helpfull to add to what we all ready know. i'm on my nights by the way.

(How many kilowatts per hour of power can a 1 MW power plant generate?)



"What's important here is the relationship between power and energy. Power is measured in kilowatts or megawatts. Energy is measured in kilowatt-hours or megawatt-hours. The amount of energy produced by a plant is a function of the power it generates, multiplied by the time it operates.

A 1 MW power plant produces 1000 kilowatts of power as long as it's operating at full capacity. So it produces 1000 kilowatt-hours of power each hour it operates, or 24,000 kilowatt-hours per day, or 8,670,000 kilowatt-hours per year.

How many total kilowatt-hours of energy it products is a function of how long it operates. A typical power plant is expected to last 30 years, and produce power 330 days a year, 24 hours a day. You do the math."

[bunbooster2] 12/9/2015 00:37

Yeah, the worry is all current demand will be satisfied by Wentworth/M&P and Orca... but clearly there will be significantly more demand in the next few years so Tanzania would be shooting themselves in the foot if they don't do their bit for Aminex.

It's not ridiculous to think of 100 mmfcd being output with Aminex keeping, say, a 50% share and making 50 million dollars per annum profit (if we extrapolate from KN-1).

So first step is KN-1 gas, then bringing Ruvuma gas online.

I think we'll eventually see Aminex with a market cap of 200 million GBP+ over the next few years based on Tanzania alone. Or it will be unable to get the interim funding it needs and just die a death. I'll wait it out whatever.

Long term (looking forward to 2050) the majority of population growth will be in Africa. It is predicted to rise to 4 billion. Tanzania is predicted to be one of the most populous countries in the world by 2100. Electrification is obviously vital for Tanzania and demand is going to rise and rise and rise. (hxxps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/07/16/the-amazing-surprising-africa-driven-demographic-future-of-the-earth-in-9-charts/).

It's extremely frustrating waiting for this GSA but it is what it is. I think the scourge of hard drugs such as 'pot' may have played a role in the delays.

[blackgold00] 11/9/2015 21:50

(1,000 cubic feet) to make 1 kWh. a kilowatt-hour, so x 24 to make a Kilowatt day? = 24,000 cfd x 1,000 for 1MW day? no I can't be right there, that's 24mmcfd just for 1MW per day.

[haggismchaggis] 11/9/2015 21:02

Natural Gas:  It takes 0.01003 Mcf (1,000 cubic feet) to make 1 kWh.  This includes power plant inefficiency.http://michaelbluejay.com/electricity/fuel.html150MW = 1504.5 mcfd?

[blackgold00] 11/9/2015 19:56

been trying to work out how much of Wentworths gas is going to be used to fuel the new 150MW Kinyerezi plant, so i was wondering, how many MMcfd of gas is needed to fuel a 150MW power plant?



"The east African country’s existing gas-powered turbines had to be turned off to allow for the connection of the new pipeline, which will supply gas to the 112MW Symbion power plant, Plant number 2 at Ubungo as well as the 150MW Kinyerezi plant, the Tanzania Daily News reported.

The Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (Tanesco)'s Managing Director, Engineer Felchesmi Mramba, said: "For the whole of tomorrow (yesterday), gas fired plants will be turned off to allow technicians to connect the new pipeline to new plants at Ubungo.”

The plants that had to be shut down included the 184MW Songas plant, 100MW Ubungo Plant number 1 and 45MW Tegeta power plant."

[gerryjames] 11/9/2015 11:00

Investing in African Potash AFPO just over a month ago would be showing x10 this morning and who knows. I hate the stockmarket, it's not fair.

[vike1] 11/9/2015 10:06

Will wait till Sep 30th before hitting the WTF button (though the thought occurs at 7:01 every morning).

[stepone68] 11/9/2015 09:43

Where did they say 60 to 90 days ? They said Q3 for production which should mean GSA by the end of the month.

[warbaby43] 11/9/2015 08:49

Last year, on September 4th and 11th, there were two big RNSs and a Presentation making extravagant and foolish "promises" of 1.9 tcf for Ntorya and 2.3tcf for Ntorya/Likonde combined along with "potential for a liquids play."

I was, and still am, expecting something similarly significant any time now though, hopefully, they won't be giving such OTT hostages to fortune. If ever there was a company overdue to under promise and over deliver, it is Aminex.

[gerryjames] 11/9/2015 07:55

They should do merchandising, t-shirts and stuff, mugs. Sell it off the website. GSA countdown calandars that sort of thing. I'd buy it, a lot of people have.

[lfdkmp] 11/9/2015 07:42

OK c31161, I'll keep my head down 'til Monday week :-)

[c31161] 11/9/2015 07:33

They said 60 to 90 days for GSA it's now day 80

[lfdkmp] 11/9/2015 07:26

Well it's September 11th and even the most charitable of interpretations is starting to struggle with the idea that we are "mid year".

Unless of course one is expecting an Indian summer. :-)

[skinwalker] 10/9/2015 23:24

Very sorry to hear that ngms. Anyway, enough of this heavy stuff. Back to my theory that you're all stoned out of your tiny minds...
I'm clearly on to something here - Greyingsurfer knows much more about the subject than a respectable retired bank manager should. And Edgar, who'd have pictured him in leather trousers? Christ!
My mind is moving on to the inevitable question - is this a covert dope-dealing site? Does GSA mean, "boys I've scored, meet me in Coldharbour Lane outside the Atlantic pub? (or whatever its now called).
Maybe RNS is code for "I've been busted, don't contact me"
Strange characters appear and then melt away, often never to be heard of again. Last Throw claims to be off on honeymoon. Honeymoon! He's about two hundred and twenty years old! What on earth is that a code for?

[ngms27] 10/9/2015 14:24

Skin, my wife carries the gene that puts her at high risk of Melanoma and Pancreatic Cancers. She has indeed had two Melanoma's to date. She has taken part in genetic research as her family history is literally one in a million so we are very upto date with this.

Melanoma's are primary Cancer, they don't start anywhere else but do cause secondaries which are the killers. i.e. You don't get Melanoma as a secondary tumour from another tumor.

[skinwalker] 10/9/2015 13:31

who are you steviedoesit?
Did you know RoJo?

[skinwalker] 10/9/2015 13:10

check the facts, greying 60s dope-smoking dude, the melanoma didn't start in his toe. This was a symptom of a pre-existing cancer.
Anyway, enough of this morbid stuff.

[greyingsurfer] 10/9/2015 13:01

Lying face-down in the Jamaica sun. Stoned out of his mind. Shirt off. Did you know him?

Since it started in a toe, I doubt the shirt would have made much difference. More likely due to running around without shoes as a child.

Peter

Who does remember the 60s clearly, and taking part in the drug culture of the time, and not knowing anyone from that era who's life was ruined as a result.

[gerryjames] 10/9/2015 12:56

Yes Bun...I suppose certain posters would have the younger investor who can't remember the 80s believe trading on crack is a good thing too. Very open about it on AEXs Dublin listing...great stuff too they boast at lunch in the pub.