Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[edgar222] 30/8/2015 09:57

Can anyone help ?

There are a lot of figures being bandied around with punters guessing the cost of the next four well drill programme.

My memory is that Jay talked about this in either a document or an interview.

My memory is that he said it was significantly cheaper to book a rig and drill them one after the other.

But I cant find it.

I am interested in the cost of drilling one at a time versus the cost of drilling them all together.

My memory FWIW is that the drill them all in a block cost was $8m but I would like to verify that and am not sure.

Thanks in advance

[warbaby43] 29/8/2015 13:04

Just to emphasize that Tanzania is, constitutionally, a socialist country and that no political party can paint itself to be anything other and the redder the better especially at election time



While the oil industry has long feared an african Venezuela, and ACT has no chance of getting near government, this time round at least, "nationalisation" is never far away from political lips in Tanzania.

Just like this country, though, not difficult to detect on which side the academics line up:

[thecynical1] 28/8/2015 18:25

warbaby.........surely if anyone had been interested in taking these out, they would have been taken out a while ago....they could have been had for less than half of what they are now not so long ago.......if their estimated reserves are anywhere close to real, they are still imo too small for any of the majors......they don't tend to be interested in BCF......the are normally looking for serious TCF.......but hey.....jmo.

[warbaby43] 28/8/2015 17:05

"Would still have significant value to a company the size of AEX, even if they only had say 20% interest left after a farmouts."

But, greyingsurfer, would a company of a size that could afford the assets really be interested in having the likes of Aminex and Solo as their junior partners post farmout.

Hopefully, more likely than a farmout is that they would just want to take us out in a takeover - and very welcome that would be too.

However, some of the figures being bandied about seem distinctly other worldly to me especially bearing in mind that whoever owns the assets, they are the entirely captive customers of the government of Tanzania - hopeless, backward, shambolic and irremediably corrupt Tanzania. That alone should thin down the number of prospective candidates and is why I believe that whoever comes in either via farmout or takover, it is unlikely to be a Western company and that either Indian or Chinese would be the favourites.

[liquid millionaire] 28/8/2015 13:21

Did she press him hard really hard?

[blackgold00] 28/8/2015 13:01

I think miss blondie looking younger, younger than last year when she interviewed our chief.

[skinwalker] 28/8/2015 12:25

yes continued North Sea oil production is in doubt. Where does that leave Tanzania I wonder...

[gerryjames] 28/8/2015 12:23

Not with oil and gas prices at historical lows Skin. They arrange all the interviews. Probably.

[skinwalker] 28/8/2015 11:43

£30 for the whole kit and caboodle Gerry!
Do you consider that over-generous?
What happened to Yellow Jersey?

[dfgo] 28/8/2015 11:39

about £39,150,000 at current price

[gerryjames] 28/8/2015 11:21

£30! It's $1.15 a share @ $3, per TCF...gross.

[skinwalker] 28/8/2015 11:08

Meanwhile the market values Aminex at about 30 quid.
The market rules - China has just discovered that :-)

[greyingsurfer] 28/8/2015 10:24

3 billion dollars talkman @ $3 a 1000c/f. Sorry 2.25 billion @75%.

That is the potential revenue from producing that amount, at $3mmscf.

However, that's rather different to the "value" of it, by which I'd assume most would mean the current value, or what you might be able to sell a discovered field for. That would be a lot less, since that revenue would stretch over perhaps 20 years or more and there would be opex and capex involved over that period. Even $1mmscf is probably stretching it. Would still have significant value to a company the size of AEX, even if they only had say 20% interest left after a farmouts.

Peter

[edgar222] 28/8/2015 10:03

Talkman

The other point here is that there is a new pipeline so the route to market is quick.

Not like offshore which will take years and cost billions for LNG trains

[talkman2] 28/8/2015 09:55

If it was just $1 this would be worth £486 million ( 20p )
$2 would be double ( 40p )
$3 would be triple (60p ).

Are my calculations correct.

That's just 1 tcf at Rumuva. The whole portfolio could have 5tcf plus.

No wonder a major financing house is interested in funding AEX !

[gerryjames] 28/8/2015 09:34

Technically correct if 3 was the price. Oil has a price in the ground, gas doesn't. It'll depend on the future domestic supply/ demand to set a value.

[skinwalker] 28/8/2015 09:30

are those funny-money dollars Gerry?

[gerryjames] 28/8/2015 09:21

3 billion dollars talkman @ $3 a 1000c/f. Sorry 2.25 billion @75%.

[talkman2] 28/8/2015 09:16

Could someone give me a value to AEX of a 1 TCF gas find at Rumuva ( where it holds 75% ) ? Would be very interested to have an idea on the potential upside here . Thanks.

[blackgold00] 28/8/2015 06:53

there you go foolsandcows.



Director's Message

"It gives me great pleasure to welcome you, on behalf of the Board of Directors, Management and TPDC Staff to our Website. TPDC is undergoing massive reform aimed at making TPDC a stronger National Oil Company (NOC) operating for the interest of the Nation. The new TPDC will participate fully in upstream operations as well as downstream operations through its subsidiaries. At TPDC, we have a vision to become a global competitive company and a key player in the Oil and Gas industry both regionally and internationally. It is along these lines we have decided to revamp our website to give our readers relevant and updated information in the Oil and Gas subsector. I hope you will find this website useful."

— Managing Director, Dr. J. P. Mataragio

[blackgold00] 27/8/2015 19:30

i don't know, not paid their bills? : ) no, i think you will find we have a new TPDC since the passing of the new Petroleum Bill, bestowing on them a new mandate and so maybe a shiny new web site to go with it.

(TPDC) Awards CGG Airborne Gravity Gradiometer surveys -



"Early this month the Parliament of the United Republic of Tanzania passed a new Petroleum Bill, which will be signed soon. Under the new Petroleum Bill, TPDC is now lawfully recognized as a National Oil Company (NOC). The NOC will participate fully in Exploration and Production of Oil and Gas and this campaign in particular signifies the commercial commencement of NOC in E&P activities in Tanzania. - See more at: hxxp://globenewswire.com/news-release/2015/07/21/753674/10142416/en/CGG-Tanzania-Petroleum-Development-Corporation-TPDC-Awards-CGG-Airborne-Gravity-Gradiometer-surveys.html#sthash.rt2XpEXF.dpuf"

[foolsandcows] 27/8/2015 19:24

hxxp://www.tpdc-tz.com/

Account Suspended - I wonder why?

[blackgold00] 27/8/2015 19:21

yes i think you are right warbaby, tackling the (financial issues on two fronts) and i believe this paragraph from the half yearly is indicating just that.

"With the Company financed through to first Tanzanian production and in the final stages of planning for a new well to appraise the Ntorya-1 discovery, Aminex is prioritising the repayment of its remaining corporate debt, which will be accelerated in the event that Solo exercises its option to acquire a further interest in Kiliwani North. As previously reported, the Company is in discussions with a major financial institution to arrange longer term funding for its Tanzanian work programme".