Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[blackgold00] 03/3/2015 08:35

ngms27, "There could be a scenario whereby Orca are the first to use the new spur if they can get their GSA delivered and AEX don't"

not quite up to speed ngms27, Orca has their own gas infrastucture the old one, the one they are using now, it has spair capacity and their PSA runs for another 5-6 years or so. they don't need to use the new gas spur/infrastucture, they can carry on as they are defying TPDC, which i believe is the game Orca are playing.

[ngms27] 03/3/2015 08:17

Yes, I'm fully up to speed with Orca. The spur to Songo Songo and the main pipeline is going to have plenty of spare capacity for the next two years plus. It doesn't mean that AEX will get a prompt GSA to partially fill it though does it.

There could be a scenario whereby Orca are the first to use the new spur if they can get their GSA delivered and AEX don't. Orca have enough cash for brown envelopes and AEX don't.

[blackgold00] 02/3/2015 18:51

ngms27 "You assume AEX get a GSA before Orca do."

no I do not, it does not matter anyway. ngms27, I don't know if I'm making myself clear, or you are deliberately not seeing the obvious.

At present Orca's gas production of 92 mmcfd is being fed into the old Songo Songo gas infrastructure (gas processing plant and pipeline) that has a capacity of 102mmcfd, and supplies a power-station and other costumers, their PSA allows them to keep using this facility until 2020.

Aminex's KN gas is going to be fed into the new Songo Songo processing plant and the new pipeline. which is going to have a lot of spair capacity.

[blackgold00] 02/3/2015 18:51

the other thing as i understand it, out of that 92mmcfd production, 45mmcf is what is classed as (protected gas) and does not belong to Orca, their's is what is classed as the (additinal gas), ie; all that is produced over and above the 45mmcfd protected gas. plus i believe TPDC has a share of the additional gas as well as Orca, so if they have to shut in the SS-4 well allso for corrosion as stated in last report, then the lost production well come from Orca's addititional gas not the protected gas. like i said before Orca's PSA is a rather complicated one.

[ngms27] 02/3/2015 17:34

Peter may well be right but personally I wouldn't bank on it

[greyingsurfer] 02/3/2015 15:39

Could it be that Jay has been accurate in his consistent assertions that the GSA is nearly complete

I don't have any real doubts that what we've been told for some time is accurate. The GSA is pretty much sorted, and has been for a while. However, the final agreements on these things can be glacially slow, particularly in Africa, and without doubt the recent corruption stories, sackings etc will have set things back more. What we have to hope is that what has been agreed so far doesn't get unravelled too much, and that it doesn't take too long for it to finally get signed off. It's obviously a worry to a certain extent, but what remains in AEX's favour is that they will shortly have a very expensive gas pipe completed and there is currently limited gas signed up to fill it. That will have a remarkable effect on concentrating minds. AEX are clearly right to say that they won't supply gas, even for testing, until the GSA is done, that is their key negotiating card.

My view for some time has been that there might be little urgency from the Tanzanian side until pipeline commissioning was close, but that the situation would change as that arrived. That remains the case.

Peter

[greyingsurfer] 02/3/2015 15:31

its not behind pipe, its behind a development programme that will cost approximately $120 million which has not yet been finalized, and will still then take a good year or more to complete.

But why has it not been finalised? Because they aren't happy about payment.

Peter

[ngms27] 02/3/2015 15:24

You assume AEX get a GSA before Orca do.
What if Orca got one tomorrow and AEX don't get one for another year or two?

[blackgold00] 02/3/2015 12:45

its not behind pipe, its behind a development programme that will cost approximately $120 million which has not yet been finalized, and will still then take a good year or more to complete.

so in the short term Aminex KN will be the only gas feeding into the new Songo Songo gas processing plant

[ngms27] 02/3/2015 12:35

The point being the reserves are behind pipe and they won't do anything with them until TPDC plays ball. Which to date it hasn't.

[blackgold00] 02/3/2015 11:44

"ss-5, ss-7 and ss-9 for example....".

ngms27, the wells had to be taken off line because of corrosion, not because they are playing games with TPDC, i'm sure you know that. note SS-4 continues to be monitored and it may also have to be suspended in the future.



2011 Q3 Interim Report

SONGO SONGO WELLS UPDATE
"Orca currently has the capacity to deliver 113 MMcfd from the five producing Songo Songo gas wells. In Q3 2011, a corrosion log was run in SS-9 to assess when this well will need to be taken out of production. This log indicated that there had not been a significant deterioration in the tubing and that SS-9 could probably be produced until 31 May 2012, subject to the running of an additional log in March 2012."



"As at 30 September 2014, the Company had a field productive capacity of approximately 93 MMcfd, with expansion of production volumes limited to 102 MMcfd by the available Songas infrastructure. Production wells SS-3, SS-5 and
SS-9 remain suspended pending workovers. SS-4 continues to be monitored and it may have to be suspended in the future."

[lfdkmp] 02/3/2015 11:28

Thanks for recent posts blackgold.

Why is my tiny brain coming to the conclusion that the AEX GSA may be affected by numerous factors many of which are not AEX specific. Could it be that Jay has been accurate in his consistent assertions that the GSA is nearly complete -- accurate in as much as the AEX specifics have been agreed.

Maybe it's all the other factors (including the messy ORCA relationships) which are holding things up. Perhaps the Tanzanian authorities see GSAs as a collective "job lot" - (although Wentworth GSA last year undermines this hypothesis)

I am however getting a feeling of "convergence" before end of Q2 2015.

(btw I'm cautious of feelings of convergence - many years ago resulted in a messy divorce!)

[ngms27] 02/3/2015 11:27

ss-5, ss-7 and ss-9 for example....

Orca aren't being paid properly in their eyes hence suspending these wells.

[blackgold00] 02/3/2015 11:05

ngms27, from their report published 24 February, 2015


Orca Exploration provides update on operations in Tanzania

"The development programme also includes the installation of a refrigeration unit at the Songo Songo Processing plant. The programme is currently contemplated to occur from Q3 2015 to Q1 2016. Additional productive capacity would be available to supply some volumes to the National Natural Gas Infrastructure Project (“NNGIP”) if and when the Company concludes a gas sales agreement with TPDC. This first phase of Songo Songo development is not dependent upon concluding a gas sales agreement with TPDC, and additional gas volumes could be sold through the existing Songas infrastructure to industrial and/or power markets. The NNGIP pipeline is approximately 98% completed and associated plants and facilities are approximately 83% complete, with commissioning expected by the end of Q2 2015".

[blackgold00] 02/3/2015 08:55

ngms27, "Orca currently have capacity behind pipe".

Where have you read that or how have you come to that conclusion? there is no further capacity with-out the funding for the development programme (approximately $120 million).


"According to the press release , Orca says the field currently produces approximately 91 million standard cubic feet per day (“MMcfd”), which is less than the existing Songas Limited (‘Songas’;) infrastructure capacity of approximately 102 MMcfd. "

‘In order to fill the existing Songas infrastructure to capacity and provide operational redundancy,

‘In order to fill the existing Songas infrastructure to capacity and provide operational redundancy, the company is contemplating a first phase of offshore development consisting of working over two existing wells (SS-5 and SS-9) that are currently suspended, working over an existing production well (SS-7) and drilling a new offshore development well (SS-12),’ the statement reads.

[ngms27] 02/3/2015 08:46

I think this is totally incorrect and a misunderstanding:
so in the short term Aminex KN will be the only gas feeding the new gas processing plant

Orca currently have capacity behind pipe but aren't going to use it until they have a GSA signed. They are also in dispute around the old processing plant and pipe.

So to me it looks identical to AEX

[blackgold00] 02/3/2015 06:53

thanks again to pyjamaboy.

so in the short term Aminex KN will be the only gas feeding into the new Songo Songo gas processing plant

"Orca seeks more cash to lift Tanzania's gas"



"According to the press release , Orca says the field currently produces approximately 91 million standard cubic feet per day (“MMcfd”), which is less than the existing Songas Limited (‘Songas’) infrastructure capacity of approximately 102 MMcfd. "

‘In order to fill the existing Songas infrastructure to capacity and provide operational redundancy, the company is contemplating a first phase of offshore development consisting of working over two existing wells (SS-5 and SS-9) that are currently suspended, working over an existing production well (SS-7) and drilling a new offshore development well (SS-12),’ the statement reads.

"Giving an update on its operations, in Tanzania, the compnay states that its development programme also includes the installation of a refrigeration unit at the Songo Songo Processing plant. "

"The programme is currently contemplated to occur from third quarter of 2015 to first quarter of 2016. "

"Additional productive capacity would be available to supply some volumes to the National Natural Gas Infrastructure Project (NNGIP) if as and when the company concludes a gas sales agreement with the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC)."

[pyjamaboy] 01/3/2015 20:10

Cheers edgar222

[edgar222] 01/3/2015 19:47

With thanks to pyjamaboy on LSE

[warbaby43] 01/3/2015 18:19

"Aminex and Solo are happy and confidant enough to raise the funds and go it alone to drill the Ntorya appraisal well/s."

With virtually nil chancre of a farmout, they'll have to go it alone although I've long thought a tie-up with another small but cashholding oilie might be on the cards.

If they do manage to assemble funding then I fervently hope that it will be sufficient for two drills rather than just one for these reasons:

a) Financial - A disproportionate cost element is actually getting the rigs on site in Tanzania with GMP last Summer guestimating one drill at $12-$15m but back-to-backs at $6-$9m each. Reportedly now being a buyers market for drill rentals, they might get back-to-backs for $12m.

b) Spread of risk - I shudder to think of the effect on the share price of a single duff well but back-to-back Ntorya appraisals with tight hole status across both of them will spread the risk of a nil return

c) Extension assistance - if, as seems highly likely, there is a need to seek an extension then being able to promise two drills and not just one, is likely to considerably assist the AEX case. It should also be possible to get one of them counting towards the 2+2 explo wells required by December 2016

[blackgold00] 28/2/2015 17:19

warbaby43, On Ruvuma - "Production bringing varieties of types of funding" "Looking to bring in industry partners to share risk" Open to "industry solutions"

thanks warbaby43 keep up the good work, I have listened several time to his answer re; the question, (the production and the funding the other assets).

i think this is just about his reply

"production gives you a lot of strength to seek a variety of types of funding, we are also looking at bringing in industry partners again to share some of the risk with us, and one of the er er er again benefits we have, is we do have a back stop of production, but because Ruvuma is such a compelling story we are in a well position situation there to look at industry solutions as well."

("industry solutions as well") I think he is telling us in a round about sort of way that Aminex and Solo are happy and confidant enough to raise the funds and go it alone to drill the Ntorya appraisal well/s.

[ngms27] 28/2/2015 16:55

Essentially said nothing, diddly squat in fact.

12 months with no change in the status of the GSA whilst in the meantime the Company is losing monies hand over fist. Will they survive if there is no GSA in three months time?

[warbaby43] 28/2/2015 16:17

Yup, thanks for the interview link, blackgold.

As other posters have said overall encouraging but nearly as interesting for what didn't get asked and answered, but points I jotted down on replaying were:

Post Solo deal "debt absolutely manageable" "very supportive lender, working with hand in hand to grow the coy." Post production start - "much stronger position to develop assets and expand business" (This theme of expanding business was repeated several times during interview.)

On Ruvuma - "Production bringing varieties of types of funding" "Looking to bring in industry partners to share risk" Open to "industry solutions"

On GSA, repetition of mantra "All main negotiation points are done and at final stages of what we hope to get signed pretty soon" i.e. no change from H2 2013.

Tanzanian gas demand "through the roof" "we can be producing for years and years before getting even close to meeting demand"

On share price "a lot more steam in the engine"??????

Q - "any exit strategy?" A - "always opportunities to look for other assets to grow the business" "not looking to buy and flip" - pity!

Interesting to see that apart from Egypt being non-existent, the embarrassment of Moldova was avoided (condition of interview? - "FFS don't mention Moldova!"

Biggest surprise, I thought, was so little on Ruvuma with Ntorya not even mentioned.

[edgar222] 28/2/2015 08:37

Great interview