Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 25/2/2015 18:54

Should be able to drill a single well for something like $7m now I would think

[warbaby43] 25/2/2015 17:41

All we need now for a couple of Ntorya/Likonde drills is the GSA and some cash - loan, Placing or corporate activity (leaving out non-starter farmout) or a combination of two of those?

This from the Oilbarrel piece on African Petroleum:

"Having spent more than 28 years in the industry with stints at Hess, Apache and Shell, Lake isn’t phased by the slump in the oil price. “I’ve seen these cycles many times before and in some ways this is the perfect time to explore because the costs are right down,” says Lake. “Rigs that were on day rates of US$600,000-US$750,000 are now available for US$300,000-US$400,000 and seismic rates are down by 50 per cent.”

Guestimates for two back-to-backs?

[warbaby43] 25/2/2015 16:55

With regard to TPDC and Kiliwani, this from 7.1.3 on p51:

"Under the terms of the Nyuni East Songo-Songo PSA which governs the Kiliwani North Development
Licence, TPDC may elect to contribute a participating interest of between 5 per cent. and 20 per cent. of
costs (such participating interest to be determined by the daily production rate), excluding exploration
costs, in order to obtain a corresponding participating interest in production and revenues. At the
planned level of production from Kiliwani North, TPDC’s participating interest would be 5 per cent."

[blackgold00] 25/2/2015 16:04

Dan "So any lender will look at it with AMINEX AT 22%. Sorry BUDS that won't get you any good loan. This production is OVERHYPED."

with AMINEX KN AT 22%? THE 15% is for backing in (Ruvuma PSA Ntorya) not KN, KN has just 15% secured against it from the 4 exploration wells to be drilled end of 2016.

"Under the terms of the Ruvuma PSA, after the grant of a development plan, TPDC may elect to contribute a participating interest of 15 per cent. of costs, excluding exploration costs in order to obtain a participating interest of 15 per cent. in production and revenues"

I wonder if an appraisal well would be included in the costs?

[dan_the_epic] 25/2/2015 15:37

This gets BETTER AND BETTER. Any lender will look at it like this
52% MINUS 15% in forfeit kiliwani MINUS 15% in tanzania backing into KILIWANI because they only have to pay development costs AND THEY ARE DOING THAT ALREADY LMAO

So any lender will look at it with AMINEX AT 22%. Sorry BUDS that won't get you any good loan. This production is OVERHYPED.

[blackgold00] 25/2/2015 15:32

warbaby43, thanks for laying that out, 37% and not 52%, (edit) if we do not drill the 4 exploration Ruvuma wells by end of 2016.

so for the cost one appraisal well, if successful in proving up the Ntorya discovery, then we could have a serious gas development on our hands with many times of added value from where we are now. got to be worth a punt hasn't it.

" On completion of the appraisal work, the partners may apply for a
development licence, subject to the discovery being considered to be commercially viable"

[warbaby43] 25/2/2015 14:06

With regard to Ruvuma Licence obligations, these were set out in the Prospectus (to which Elite kindly provided a link @ 50897)with a summary on P19 at 1.7 and in more detail, including the Kiliwani penalties at p48 7.1.2. The presently most relevant bits of this say:

"The second extension period commenced in
December 2013 and will end in December 2016. Under the terms of the PSA, the work programme for
the second extension period requires the partners to carry out additional geological and geophysical
studies as deemed necessary and for two exploration wells to be drilled (one in each concession area).
The minimum expenditure required is US$4.5 million in each concession area. As the partners plan an
extensive 2D seismic survey over both concession areas, including seismic over the potential appraisal
area incorporating the Ntorya and Ntorya up-dip prospects, the Tanzanian authorities have agreed that
Aminex and its partners may amend the work programme so that the two wells required under the first
extension period are transferred to the second extension period, thereby requiring four wells to be drilled
in the final period. In return Aminex has agreed to provide security over the Kiliwani North Development
Licence to guarantee the amended well drilling obligations for the second extension period. For each
well drilled on the Ruvuma PSA, TPDC’s security interest over the Kiliwani North Development Licence
will be reduced by 3 per cent. for the first well and 4 per cent thereafter. ............

Under the terms of the Ruvuma PSA, after the grant of a development plan, TPDC may elect to contribute
a participating interest of 15 per cent. of costs, excluding exploration costs in order to obtain a
participating interest of 15 per cent. in production and revenues.............................

Following the successful testing of Ntorya-1, an application for a two year appraisal licence was
submitted to the Tanzanian government and a programme of seismic acquisition was formulated to
delineate the Ntorya find, as well as to infill seismic across previously defined lines. On 20 June 2013, the
Tanzanian authorities signed a declaration for Ntorya as a ‘‘location’’ and the declaration was
subsequently gazetted. The location comprises nine graticular blocks in the Mtwara licence block of the
Ruvuma PSA and includes the Ntorya discovery and the Ntorya Up-dip prospect. The location is subject
to a two-year work programme requiring additional seismic and the drilling of one appraisal well,
conditional on the new seismic. On completion of the appraisal work, the partners may apply for a
development licence, subject to the discovery being considered to be commercially viable"

The present relevance of the Kiliwani putative penalties might be that any lender is likely to take the cautious view with a GSA income assessment based on a 37% and not a 52% share.

[jacks13] 25/2/2015 13:42

I wouldn't rule out another open offer and placing once KN-1 is producing revenue. Putting my optimistic hat on a signed GSA would see a lift in sp, debt would ideally be serviceable from revenue and assuming they want (need) to crack on with their capex then that seems a sensible route to fund-raising. Either that or a communal sofa rummage.

[blackgold00] 25/2/2015 12:45

I don't know yet, Dan

[dan_the_epic] 25/2/2015 12:43

AND WHERE WILL THEY GET THE $5M OF AMINEXS COSTS TO DRILL THE WELL?

[blackgold00] 25/2/2015 12:34

i think we would have heard of a farm in partner by now if there was one out there. from Eliwallach at lse.. so who will be in for the ride, high risk high returns

Eliwallach Neil ritsonToday 11:15I

"had a mail off Neil today when I asked him about farm in partners. He said the market is very fickle and Aex and solo are in a good position to press ahead with appraisal drilling. He said the door remains open but solo and Aminex would be happy to go it alone! This is good in my opinion. May take longer but would be a damn site more lucrative! I think horse hill will provide solo with revenue soon which they will use to enhance Ntorya which Neil describes as the 'jewel in the crown'

[greyingsurfer] 25/2/2015 11:49

End of June for the appraisal

[blackgold00] 25/2/2015 11:19

greyingsurfer, "No, the appraisal well is a licence condition."

and it hasn't been secured from the KN assets, unlike the 4 exploration wells of the Ruvuma PSA that have to be drilled by end of 2016.

[thecynical1] 25/2/2015 10:23

greying surfer.....what is the deadline on the appraisal well?

[greyingsurfer] 25/2/2015 09:12

BG,

Is then the Ntorya appraisal well also not a (licence obligation) under the terms of the (NTORYA APPRAISAL LICENCE)?

No, the appraisal well is a licence condition.

Peter

[pj 1] 25/2/2015 08:56

Plus, how much working capital does AEX need to operate and fund payment terms?

[pj 1] 25/2/2015 08:54

Defferred Remuneration

Does anyone know what the true cash burn is, including (defferred) Directors remunerations?

[lfdkmp] 25/2/2015 08:33

"We are pleased that the administrative formalities continue to be progressed effectively;" Wonder if Ritson sees the signing of the GSA in similar terms?

- "Relax folks"


I was about to ask if anyone can see a cloud attached to today's silver lining.

edgar I think you anticipated the question in 51661.

[edgar222] 25/2/2015 08:25

Deleting double post

[edgar222] 25/2/2015 08:25

With thanks to Watchouse on the LSE


In the Aminex USA disposal documents on 6 August 2014 these 2 paragraphs below caught my attention about how much we owed at that time. 31 July 2015 is only 5 months away. It's going to be very tight!

"On 17 January 2013, the Group announced that it had agreed a US$8 million loan facility with a fund managed by Argo Capital Management (Cyprus) Limited. There is currently debt outstanding of approximately US$9.9 million under the Argo Loan which expires on 31 July 2015. The Company’s current intention is to use the proceeds of the sale of gas from Kiliwani North and the deferred consideration under the Disposal Agreement to repay a portion of the Argo Loan. Notwithstanding such cash flow, the Company currently anticipates that it will not have sufficient cash resources to repay the Argo Facility in full prior to 31 July 2015 and consequently would have a working capital shortfall of approximately US$6.2 million in July 2015."

"If the farming out of interests in the Ruvuma PSA and/or the disposal of the Company’s Moldovan assets and/or disposal of interest in the Kiliwani North Development Licence and/or and the farm-out of Nyuni Area PSA could not be effected and/or if technical or administrative overheads meant the Company was unable to carry out its strategy and/or if new equity or other financing could not be raised in the requisite time scales and/or if a merger partner was not identified, there is no guarantee that Argo would not seek repayment of the debt and/or enforce security on or shortly after expiry of the Argo Loan on 31 July 2015, which may result in certain companies in the Group, or the Company itself, being placed in some form of insolvency proceedings (such as administration or receivership) immediately after 31 July 2015 and, in such circumstances, no assurance can be given to Shareholders as to the level of distribution that would be made to them (if any)."


Which means, if the figures above remain accurate, that the $7m from Solo will more than cover the capital shortfall anticipated in July 2015.

[pyjamaboy] 25/2/2015 07:41

Neil Ritson today's RNS Summary , hopefully we can get a break .We are pleased that the administrative formalities continue to be progressed effectively; since the physical sale of gas from Kiliwani North into the Songo Songo plant and then into the pipeline to Dar es Salaam gets ever closer.  We look forward to further news and our first revenue from Tanzania in the coming months."

[edgar222] 25/2/2015 07:22

To answer my own question, the transaction has been completed. Annoying you have to look at Solo's RNS to find that



Solo is pleased to confirm that formal approval has been received from the Tanzanian Authorities for the Company to acquire up to a 13% interest in Kiliwani North Development Licence ("KNDL") from Aminex plc. There now remains no further conditions precedent to the previously announced acquisition of a 6.5% interest in the KNDL for US$3.5 million and the transaction has been completed. Solo also retains the right to purchase an additional 6.5% in the KNDL on the same terms up to 30 days after the signing of the Gas Sales Agreement.

Neil Ritson, Solo's Chairman, commented:

"We are pleased that the administrative formalities continue to be progressed effectively; since the physical sale of gas from Kiliwani North into the Songo Songo plant and then into the pipeline to Dar es Salaam gets ever closer. We look forward to further news and our first revenue from Tanzania in the coming months."



As previously announced Solo will now become a party to the KNDL Joint Operating Agreement and a named party to the Gas Sales Agreement, which is still expected to be signed shortly.

[slepy] 24/2/2015 22:34

Are you saying that the deadline for appraisal well is 20 june?

I will have a one hell of a birthday if they lose the licence.

[blackgold00] 24/2/2015 21:39

greyingsurfer, "The seismic programme, which is not a licence obligation"

Is then the Ntorya appraisal well also not a (licence obligation) under the terms of the (NTORYA APPRAISAL LICENCE)? it does'nt state it specifically in the RNS and i wonder where it stands with the Ruvuma PSA obligations and the 4 exploration wells having to be drilled by the end of 2016.



"The appraisal programme will comprise a further seismic survey to delineate the extent of the Ntorya discovery and drilling of an appraisal well"

what does the 2014 prospectus state. thanks greyingsurfer