Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[lucyp00p] 17/5/2017 12:57

At the agm JW confirmed the loss would be utilised this year so I guess he's bullish about the p&l

[moneylender] 17/5/2017 12:49

Thanks Charlieee, still not sure what that means to Amer, are we not involved with petrodorado?

[charlieeee] 17/5/2017 12:42

ML

Slide 7 of the May presentation refers.

$24m is in the Platanillo "family"

$57m is in the Petrodorada "family" and separate

Depending on the group structure and tax regime applicable, the Petrodorado losses may be generally offset, but it is more likely that they are restricted to CPO 5 profits (assuming that these materialize). The $24m should be taken in year 1 of any Platanillo calcs, as you say Lucy.

[money maker1] 17/5/2017 12:39

On twitter, no RNS yet:

Just released - Approval of small cap Highland Natural Resources (HNR) patent for its refraccing and anti well bashing system DT Ultravert (DTU) - That is HNR's commercial future secured regardless of whatever else happens.

Must be worth at least 70p now against 30p before the approval leak.

[moneylender] 17/5/2017 12:28

Lucy there were two tax loss figures on the chart JW was talking about, one was for
$24M you mention and the other was for circa $50M. Were they two separate tax losses? I meant to ask JW later but forgot!!! any ideas?

[bigwavedave] 17/5/2017 12:28

Maybe someone with tech knowledge could look at the links below. They are results of drills into the Une formation (re CPO-5) but with much less net pay than ONGC has discovered.
Can we draw any conclusions for Mariposa-1 or is it completely irrelevant until we get "known knowns"? Thanks.

[al101uk] 17/5/2017 12:11

Lucyp00p,

1.5p on the share price (near enough), but that would depend on when and how we make use of it.

What historical data am I using? Or was that aimed at Quidunc?

If you can supply some future data I'll happily make my investment decisions based on that.

What's the alternative (assuming you don't have that future data to hand)?

[al101uk] 17/5/2017 10:49

quidunc,

"Is modelling ever finished?"

Not in my mind, no, but sticking a couple of new numbers in, adding a bit of risk here or removing some there isn't a huge amount of work once you have a model your happy with.

I only have one model which I play with to give me a potential price for each scenario. It's all about putting numbers around a narrative, when I post stuff on here I tend to be looking at what the market or what a broker could be thinking and then giving my opinion on it.

I've offered before, but if anyone cares to supply a narrative, I'll put a "fair value" on those assumptions.

The model is pretty standard, using NPV with a 10% discount rate is the standard method for valuing an oil company, that's what both Fadilz and I use... it's only our philosophy and assumptions that are slightly different. I think we argue more about our use of words than anything else.

I don't keep all of my "narratives", I run the numbers, get a feel for the value in those assumptions and move on. I'm not a stickler for intrinsic value, I look for patently undervalued stocks, where my assessment could be 20% over what the market thinks and I wouldn't lose money.

I am a classical value investor, although I've become intrigued by PEG recently and opening up my horizons to companies trading on PE's in the high 20's (not bought one yet).

Admittedly AMER is more of a labour of love than any of my other investments.

The problems with posting every narrative are:

1) There would be too many
2) People don't like negative narratives as I'm sure you're aware from your TA postings.

Also I can't predict the future and don't try, I just weigh probabilities, so there is no model or set of assumptions that illustrate my point of view.

So I try to walk the middle ground and analyse other peoples work.

[charlieeee] 17/5/2017 10:41

Q

Well, if I had the time, I would extol the virtues of the simple P/E model on a current rolling basis, updated as new information comes to hand on production volume, POO and operating costs.

Obviously, it does not immediately take account of the exploration upside of a mega find (such as the CPO-5 has the potential to be), but then, nor does NPV based on existing data: at least the NAV does take account of some upside, though on an averaged basis and of course, none of us should forget TA, which does price in expectations.

One of the problems with P/E for Amer, is that it punishes companies for the failure to maximize asset exploitation (for whatever reason).

On NPV, it needs to be remembered that the primary purpose is as an analytical rather than comparative tool. It is a way of modelling to maximize return on the asset (in this case Platanillo reserves)and needs to take account of known factors (such as the inevitable decline in production over time, which significantly affects any calculation to which DCF is applied).

My guess is that any share price prediction competition on a rolling basis will be won by TA and that is why the inputs by the likes of yourself and Martin are so invaluable: certainly it "predicted" RH long before he "declared" or was even rumored and currently, it is "thinking" about pricing in Plat 21 and CPO-5.

[vermilion1966] 17/5/2017 10:16

Why are we attracting more than our fair share of idiots all of a sudden?

Perhaps correlates with increase in sp?

[englishlongbow] 17/5/2017 09:55

IGAS

Following recent debt reduction and stakebuilding by Transeuropean, it looks like cash generative IGAS is set to gap-up from 5p to around 10p.

www.immupharma.org/fda-grants-immupharma-ammended-spa-lupuzor-phase-iii-company-progresses-development-activities

[quidnunc] 17/5/2017 09:39

A101, is modelling ever finished?
In another field, we just seem to discard on the one hand and redefine on the other.
Always going for a better fit as new data comes to hand and always trying to answer more questions/test alternate hypothesis.

Keep it up you guys. Its been a very worthwhile and interesting debate to follow.
A far cry from the unsupported ramps/deramps, disappointing hopes and wishes with which, whilst I share and sympathise, I don't see moving us along much in understanding the big picture.

I wonder if our new Thread owner would consider posting up the "competing" models so that we could see, over time, which fits best and delivers best information?

Regards to all involved
Q.

[francis55] 17/5/2017 09:28

Trailing stop loss....

[al101uk] 17/5/2017 09:06

Are we finished now?

[big7ime] 17/5/2017 08:39

Shouldn't you be in school now?

[big7ime] 17/5/2017 08:38

A stop loss Francis is set under the current price, not above
Hence the words stop and loss, otherwise you may wish to call it limit gain

[francis55] 17/5/2017 08:32

For someone who is full of it - dare i say Hur 60p today? Boooohoooo.

[francis55] 17/5/2017 08:30

Look at that Hur just hit 54p. Reset trailing stop loss to 57p. For the doubters.

[francis55] 17/5/2017 08:22

Bought at 49p first port of call on my trailing stop loss is 54p - that 10% and if its still got legs i will let it run. So for those who struggle with the sums whats 10% of £20k?

[big7ime] 17/5/2017 08:20

A model one, that's nice