Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[juuunx2] 11/8/2019 21:33

Anybody got any thoughts on length of sale process. Please don't say how long is a piece of pipeline lol

[eddie_yates] 11/8/2019 21:10

I’m of the opinion that the assets will be valued and priced based on their own merits regardless of the current company market cap
The oba alone offers potential savings in transport costs of over $300,000,000 at 9000bopd between now and when the current agreement expires in 2030

[sji] 11/8/2019 20:58

Who told you I am content with 25p? I would be very happy with 38p but I am realistic and it is highly unlikely that we are going to get that. I say that 25p is what I can expect to get as things stand, as this would be more than 100% what we were at just 3 weeks ago! The fact that AMER was 64.5p five years ago and now it is languishing at 18.9p shows what kind of management we have! And stop pointing fingers towards others for this lacklustre performance by saying this is the work of Rex etc. The whole point is that for the last several years, our management has promised heaven on earth and delivered poorly. So, the share price at these levels. Now, suitors see that we have fantastic assets that we failed to exploit fully and they are coming to get them at bargain prices. I am too small a shareholder to block them and the game will be decided by large institutes who have suffered for a long time and they are just waiting to get out at a reasonable price.

If we get an offer for 38p, I will be extremely happy with it. We will talk when we get it then!

[tyler durden1] 11/8/2019 20:50

Amerisur with Ecopetrol and Repsol....

Drills failed at Alea, constant problems....until?

Until Amerisur got the lease for a song from Repsol and Ecopetrol

Suddenly it was producing and so were several drills in succession.

John Wardle used to comment about how he had he answers.

Conspiracy or fact?

Never discount big business trying any tricks

sp price manipulation? You have mentioned it or is it a conspiracy theory?

34p

[eddie_yates] 11/8/2019 20:42

I don’t understand why Sji and Rosanne, amongst others, seem to be content with 24 or 25p when the share price was previously much higher at a time when the company assets where nowhere near as impressive as they are now

[lucyp00p] 11/8/2019 20:41

No, no no no no. Enough with this conspiracy theory nonsense.

[sji] 11/8/2019 20:16

rossannan - why do you waste your time with such posters? This is the same poster that last Friday, following the RNS, got so excited to post that we would see 24p by EOD! See where we are now?

[tyler durden1] 11/8/2019 19:31

ONGC twitter
ONGC May 7
ONGC reaffirms its strong financial position

"A section of press has raised concerns over ONGC's ability to meet its working capital requirements as well as its capital and operating expenditure....."

Would never surprise me if ONGC initiated the poor bid approach by Indonesian owned bidder.

So far from them not wanting Occy, the likelihood is they would welcome them with open arms as owner of Amerisur, if THEY CAN'T BUY AMERISUR.

As a result of this and other research I do not have confidence that the perceived unsuccessful drills on CPO-5 were unlucky or failed in their mission...its just their mission might not have been the same as Amerisur's.

[tyler durden1] 11/8/2019 19:24

I thought that at first, but digging reveals ONGC had to issue public statement that they were not as suggested in the Press short of cash, which in financial speak means?

So likelihood is they would welcome Occy with open arms and I still suspect that CPO-5 has been approached in the same tactic as Amerisur used with Repsol and Ecopetrol and I do not trust the two last drill results there at all as if it does follow Amerisur's modus operandi, it was in the knowledge of a pathetic bid to come, and then them stepping in appearing to be more generous, but where even double 17p is a steal.

[acv74] 11/8/2019 18:27

I've been thinking....are a serious operator like Oxy going to want to buy our minority non-operated stake in CPO-5? CPO-5 is so potentially valuable it could stop a deal for the company. If the only potential buyer for that asset is ONGC I can't see us getting best price from the Indians.We could sell all our assets in the south of the country and spin out CPO-5 with enough cash to meet our obligations and just sit on our 30%. Also what's happened with Paraguay, have we given it up as a dead loss or is there still mileage there?

[tyler durden1] 11/8/2019 17:47

After a lot of digging my opinion is that the first bidder may have been designed to be low and possibly at the behest of ONGC. If you research you will find ONGC is heavily involved with Indonesia. Indonesia are effectively owners of the bidder. Much easier to counter a pathetic bid than approach with a view to purchase in the first place.

[ashkv] 11/8/2019 17:30

It is a problem becuase you are a paid troll - and nothing to the discussion other than repeating the same old.

I have to concur with some others who have postulated that if you are not a paid troll - you need medical help :)

[sji] 11/8/2019 16:58

More 25.5p (just teasing!)

[moneylender] 11/8/2019 16:08

Amerisur Resources (AMER) announced an update on the strategic review and formal sale process. Multiple parties have now agreed to participate through the signing of confidentiality agreements. Currently 18.9p in the market (well above the initial 17p offer from Maurel & Prom (MAU: Paris)) I suspect an acceptable offer is going to have to be in excess of the last placing price of 25p. The company has strongly advised shareholders to take no action in respect of their shares until completion of the formal sale process.

He has lots of followers!

[ashkv] 11/8/2019 05:46

I am just astounded by this cabal of constant naysayers of Amerisur - Rosanan, XJNR, sji - at least Rosy has curtailed droning on with his 25p price :)

[ashkv] 11/8/2019 05:45

It seems GBPUSD is about to trade below key 1.20 level

The super weak exchange rate has to got to make a 37p low case valuation specified by Stifel a shoo in!!!

GBPUSD 1.255 on 19 July when strategic review RNS published - now almost 4.5% lower. So even the 17p buyout offer from M&P is now equivalent to GPBUSD of 18p!!!

FT Alphaville free to register -
and not only is there the written analysis from Stifel on the live blog but also a pic of the detailed Risked & Unrisked Valuation per Stifel Analysts

For CORE NAV Stifel has on a Risked Basis for Amerisur p/share (on a net basis) -
Plat 1P -> 5.4p per share
CPO5 (Mariposa) -> 0.5p
CPO5 (Indico) -> 4.1p
Occidental Carry -> 2.5p
OBA Pipeline (2K Bpd 3rd Party) -> 0.9p
Adjusted Net Debt/Cash -> 3.2p
Total Risked Core Value = 17p (Unrisked 18p)

Plat Probable -> 2p per share (Unrisked 4p)
CPO5 Drills + Upside Net to Amerisur (Risked) -> 18.3p of which Sol only 0.4p (Unrisked 69.5p)
CPO5 Potential + Core NAV + Plat = 37.3P per Share (Risked) according to Stifel

Other Blocks on Chance of Success (Occidental Farmed Out 50% + Amerisur 100%)(Risked) -> 27p (Unrisked 85p)

Therefore Total NAV per share on a Risked Basis is 64p & Unrisked is 176p

I would be over the moon with Stifel Target price of 37.3p per the above non-published note excerpted in FT Alphaville!!! Excellent elaboration of the potential upside for Amerisur. Check out yourself on FT Alphaville (Free to register)

[ashkv] 11/8/2019 05:44

Sji - M&P might act quickly with a low ball offer which will certainly be rebuffed. Or they might run away with their little between their legs.

The sole purpose of the Amerisur RNS was to advise share holders NOT TO TENDER shares / hold on to them as multiple bidders and the party has only started. Even the DJ is yet to begin his set :)

THE PROCESS HAS ONLY NOW BEGUN.

M&P messed up by getting greedy - if they had offered around 30p the 3rd rate firm with its ever sinking stock might have had a shot.

Now they are likely going to battle with an air pistol against opponents with Nukes. Game over :)

[davwal] 10/8/2019 20:24

sji - Of course, I know it’s not a public tender and Amer has a significant degree of latitude, but by definition it is a formal process. It is in Amerisur’s interest to play fair initially and only judge proposals once all are received - and I think that will be within a fixed time. We simply see it differently.

[sji] 10/8/2019 19:20

davwal - this is not a public tender where rules have to be followed for everyone. AMER is selling and they can choose with whom to negotiate. The FSP is a process whereby all interested parties register their interest to buy the assets of AMER. In the process, they are provided with insider information for which they have to sign a non-disclosure agreement. However, since any bidder can join (since it is in the interest of AMER to have several parties in the process), there is not likely to be any time limit for repling to the invitation to bid and the reason is simple. Prospective bidders that join the FSP have no obligation to bid and if they do bid, they can bid for whatever assets they want, not necessarily the whole company. So, the bidders' interests can be different and the time to analyse the data will be different depending on what they bid for. Therefore, AMER is unlikely to treat bidders in the same way as they (AMER) may be more interested in selling out the whole lot rather than just the crown jewels of the company.

Last week, I wrote that AMER should publish the number of parties involved in the FSP because it will increase the tension among prospective bidders. After a week, we got just that information! AMER were under no obligation to publish yesterday's RNS but they did just to push prospective bidders to act quickly (in my opinion).

Now, I say that, in my opinion, we will soon (before end of month) get the first bid from a bidder (my preferred bidder to bid first being M&P). Now, we will see. Others have said that the FSP will take several months to complete (some mentioning November/December). I have a completely different opinion.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens next.

[sji] 10/8/2019 19:00

Eddie_Yates - smarter still!

[fatgreek] 10/8/2019 18:31

I do love you humour lol....the flies on the windscreen killed me with laughter