Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 10/8/2019 12:17

It doesn't matter what any of us think. Myself included. All I'm saying is it's the actual output numbers that count. Keep clicking on that EIA link, even if some of you think the numbers are a scam!

[ashkv] 10/8/2019 12:14

Hear you - and I concur. EIA seem to be part of a concerted behind the scenes effort to lower oil prices as suits certain powers that be...

I only mentioned as even the uber bearish on oil EIA is paring down its doom & gloom...

Bottom line is even if they are fake and massaged - the EIA does have impact on the market...

[foiledagain] 10/8/2019 11:59

ash

you also should treat figures from the EIA with a pinch of salt. They are never accurate and are guesstimates, always assisting the USA, and only months after they have done their damage are they ever corrected, as that was why the EIA was set up, after what then was the supposed IEA, but where even there whistleblowers have commented about how even the IEA massages figures to suit.

[ashkv] 10/8/2019 11:56

From another article on oilprice.com :) :) Come on Amerisur board - for once earn your high salary and don't let down!!!

"But, of course, lower prices would feed through to the supply side as well. The shale sector is already suffering from significant financial stress. Lower prices would only magnify the pressure on struggling E&Ps"

EIA expects monthly growth in Lower 48 onshore production to slow during the rest of the forecast period, averaging 50,000 b/d per month from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the end of 2020, down from an average of 110,000 b/d per month from August 2018 through July 2019,” the agency said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday.

[foiledagain] 10/8/2019 11:54

xx

No. Disagree entirely. Any fool can produce something at twice the cost it sells it for.

That is Shale including Permian.

The only reason they continue to produce this oil is not vast profit it makes (as it does not), but because of its effect on world oil prices allowing the U.S. to keep the illusion of a glut of oil, but where shale depletes so quickly its going to cause havoc in oil markets, and probably why the U.S. is so keen on sanctions against primarily oil rich countries including Venezuela and why Colombia is so important to the U.S.

These companies are now running out of avenues to raise finance, having tapped investors over and over again, sold assets, raised more debt, and any investor in shale is on a hiding to nothing let alone the costs of properly decommissioning the legacy wells, so instead they keep them pumping out even more non viable oil in less and less quantity down to just 50bopd in short space of time as decommissioning costs millions per well. Some of these including majors have been in shale for over ten years, and are yet to make a profit in shale, having expended billions and billions of dollars only propped up by the false accounting based only on production rather than profitability.

As shale can only work by drilling more and more wells just to make up for the legacy wells and the extraordinary decline rates, it is literally like a pyramid selling scheme, and there will be thousands upon thousands of wells that need millions of dollars each to decommission.

Well spacings have reduced so much that recently Concho Resources had to report how deleterious it was to other production.

No doubt before long the U.S. will have to consider zero interest rates or negative interest rates and quantitative easing again, to try to force investor money into shale.

[ashkv] 10/8/2019 11:53

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Time-Is-Almost-Up-For-US-Shale.html

[ashkv] 10/8/2019 11:53

Amerisur super troll & Rosanan ally XJNR chimed in as I anticipated. Parsing words of the person he is quoting and trying to twist what was actually stated. Read for yourself below.... Disregard trolls Rosanan, XJNR, SJ1, SJI

Article a few days ago that quotes Sheffield of Pioneer Natural Resources -


"The industry faces both medium and long-term challenges as well. Pioneer Natural Resources, one of the larger producers in the Permian and widely considered one of the stronger companies, warned about the future of drilling.?"

“Rig count and Tier 1 acreage is being exhausted at a very quick rate,” Pioneer President and CEO Scott Sheffield told analysts on an earnings call on August 6, referring to the Delaware basin, which has seen a surge of activity most recently.

“I am lowering my expectations of the Permian, reaching 1 million barrels of oil per day growth annually as it did in 2018,” Sheffield said. “I'm still convinced the Permian will reach 8 million barrels a day at a much slower pace with the Midland Basin as the only growing basin in the U.S. past 2025.”

[pauliewonder] 10/8/2019 11:34

It won't look particularly great for Stifel if AMER are taken out for a large discount on their 37p valuation. I'm cautiously confident that any full takeover would be at least 30p but split up we could go for more. I'm excited about just how high we could go. Exciting next few weeks and months...

[xxnjr] 10/8/2019 11:29

The only numbers that count



Latest week 2019 Aug Wk1 vs 2018 Aug Wk1 means

US has added 1.5M bopd in only one year.

Probably will be a slow down due to lower oil prices, but even the now pessimistic Scott Sheffield, expects the Permian to double again reaching 8M bopd. Nice problem to have.

[ashkv] 10/8/2019 10:49

Any thoughts on the below low case valuation from junior banker Stifel on Amerisur strategic review?
Any price less than 30p will be an admission of abject failure on part of Amerisur management considering they raised funds at 25p in 2016 when Oil at multi-decade lows!!!

FT Alphaville free to register -
and not only is there the written analysis from Stifel on the live blog but also a pic of the detailed Risked & Unrisked Valuation per Stifel Analysts

For CORE NAV Stifel has on a Risked Basis for Amerisur p/share (on a net basis) -
Plat 1P -> 5.4p per share
CPO5 (Mariposa) -> 0.5p
CPO5 (Indico) -> 4.1p
Occidental Carry -> 2.5p
OBA Pipeline (2K Bpd 3rd Party) -> 0.9p
Adjusted Net Debt/Cash -> 3.2p
Total Risked Core Value = 17p (Unrisked 18p)

Plat Probable -> 2p per share (Unrisked 4p)
CPO5 Drills + Upside Net to Amerisur (Risked) -> 18.3p of which Sol only 0.4p (Unrisked 69.5p)
CPO5 Potential + Core NAV + Plat = 37.3P per Share (Risked) according to Stifel

Other Blocks on Chance of Success (Occidental Farmed Out 50% + Amerisur 100%)(Risked) -> 27p (Unrisked 85p)

Therefore Total NAV per share on a Risked Basis is 64p & Unrisked is 176p

I would be over the moon with Stifel Target price of 37.3p per the above non-published note excerpted in FT Alphaville!!! Excellent elaboration of the potential upside for Amerisur. Check out yourself on FT Alphaville (Free to register)

[ashkv] 10/8/2019 10:47

The usual trolls have disappeared and this cunning liar SJI has taken over from Rosanan and his henchman :(

[sji] 10/8/2019 09:11

tyler durden1 - no always, sji. Sorry to disappoint you!

[tyler durden1] 10/8/2019 09:06

Wasn't sj1 sji

[sji] 10/8/2019 08:55

tyler durden1 - not at all! Why should it? What did this SJ1 post then?

[tyler durden1] 10/8/2019 08:45

SJ1 Your nose is growing

[tyler durden1] 10/8/2019 08:41

Time Almost Up For Shale

[sji] 10/8/2019 08:31

tyler durden1 - Firstly, I do not put my assertions as facts. In fact, frequently I make it clear that I am NOT an insider to the sale process and I know nothing more than all of you do!

Secondly, I did not changed my posting name!

[tyler durden1] 10/8/2019 08:24

sj1

Seems very slanted posts with your assertions stated as facts when they are not.

Just one question

Why did you change your posting name?

[sji] 10/8/2019 08:19

Eddie_Yates - sorry, in my previous post, I spelt wrongly your name. By itself, that should disqualify me from reply to your intelligent posts then!

[sji] 10/8/2019 08:16

Eddie-Yates - I believe that everyone on this bb should have the right to express his/her opinion whether I agree with him/her or not (including yourself). Unfortunately, not everyone on this bb agrees with my reasoning (apparently, including yourself)!

[eddie_yates] 10/8/2019 07:52

Sji
Your incorrect use of terminology indicates that maybe you’re not best qualified to value an oil company, that’s all

[lucyp00p] 10/8/2019 07:42

Let's not bemoan the antics of Rex, although I would love to be a fly on his sanatorium wall right now. When this process is over, I'm going to look for another cheesed off megalomaniac, using his influence to crush a share price because he didn't get his way. It seems that anybody playing a long game can do rather well out of this.

[sji] 10/8/2019 06:09

Eddie_Yates - Oh, sorry. So, from the whole argument I brought up, the fact that I wrongly-typed "wells" instead of "blocks", caught your attention and you felt the need to point that out!

Oh well, if that makes you feel smart, good for you mate!

[bigwavedave] 10/8/2019 01:06

Brief mention in the Daily Mail.

[eddie_yates] 09/8/2019 23:11

Sji
It was your reference to 4 WELLS that caught my attention