Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 04/8/2019 16:32

CONSIDERING MANAGEMENT DID SECONDARY ISSUE AT 25p in 2016 WHEN BRENT AT MULTI-DECADE LOWS - A SALE PRICE LESS THAN 35P WOULD BE AN ADMISSION OF VALUE DESTRUCTION & INCOMPETENT MANAGEMENT ON PART OF THE CEO WARDLE & THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS - CLARK & THE OTHERS....

[ashkv] 04/8/2019 16:31

Amazing value waiting to be tapped in Amerisur -30p+ should be cheap as chips for an acquirer!!!!

FT Alphaville free to register -
and not only is there the written analysis from Stifel on the live blog but also a pic of the detailed Risked & Unrisked Valuation per Stifel Analysts

For CORE NAV Stifel has on a Risked Basis for Amerisur p/share (on a net basis) -
Plat 1P -> 5.4p per share
CPO5 (Mariposa) -> 0.5p
CPO5 (Indico) -> 4.1p
Occidental Carry -> 2.5p
OBA Pipeline (2K Bpd 3rd Party) -> 0.9p
Adjusted Net Debt/Cash -> 3.2p
Total Risked Core Value = 17p (Unrisked 18p)
Plat Probable -> 2p per share (Unrisked 4p)
CPO5 Drills + Upside Net to Amerisur (Risked) -> 18.3p of which Sol only 0.4p (Unrisked 69.5p)
CPO5 Potential + Core NAV + Plat = 37.3P per Share according to Stifel
Other Blocks on Chance of Success (Occidental Farmed Out 50% + Amerisur 100%)(Risked) -> 27p (Unrisked 85p)

Therefore Total NAV per share on a Risked Basis is 64p & Unrisked is 176p

I would be over the moon with Stifel Target price of 35p per published analysis prior to them suspending coverage as they are involved in deal!!!

[ashkv] 04/8/2019 16:30

Rosanan & xnjr you asked for an example and you have it.... now stop crying and making up falsities.

M&P are not getting Amerisur for 25p - period & the share price is not going to fall to 12p should they scurry off post getting the door slammed on their face.

Plenty of other suitors/white knights....

[xxnjr] 04/8/2019 15:35

Cove Energy were selling a minority stake in a giant gas resource that was going to be the next big thing in LNG. The field had been delineated by drilling many wells, and conducting quite a few flow tests, all of which had high flow rates. Amerisur are selling a wall chart with about 10 unexplored blocks on it, plus an at times wonky Plat field, half of the OBA (the other half is in Ecuador) and CPO-5 where arguably 5 of last 7 wells have failed. Quite a difference. Let's not get too carried away!

[foiledagain] 04/8/2019 14:39

JPod. Academic really because many holders here would not agree to any deal that they considered undervalued Amerisur, let alone the BoD.

No indication of anyone trying to go hostile, and if they did, they would in my opinion be on a hiding to nothing on several fronts.

First the approach would be rebutted in no uncertain terms by the BoD.

Alternatively a white night of which there may be quite a few could step into the arena.

The process started by the approach, has brought Amerisur into the headlights, so I'm not surprised others are interested, but they will face the same obstacle as the existing prospective bidders.

If a deal is rebutted by BoD, then in my opinion the BoD will have to do something to prove to holders the undervalued nature of Amerisur, possibly dividend payments, special or otherwise.

In Brexit terms if no deal, then the BoD will not get away with promises any more.

If the BoD consider the situation, they may wish to exercise their options converting these to shares, as that would assist thwarting any hostile.

If as suggested the prospective bidder has approached some of the major holders, then its unlikely in my opinion that these have disposed of any shares if amiable to an approach.

Some of the major holders have disposed of shares, but I note Michinoko do not appear to have disposed of any, which may give credence to comments in the FT not too long ago about the AGM, even though personally I thought it was just a ruse, as its not just Amerisur that Mich are heavily into, its virtually every GC company.

[jpodtrading] 04/8/2019 14:01

rossannan: Cove Energy went for more than 100% it's share price on the day it said it was up for sale. It was 112.5p and went for 240p. It also went up to about 275p a share during the bidding process.

[3roach] 04/8/2019 12:30

Exactly, ONGC will know but we on Advfn don't.

[foiledagain] 04/8/2019 12:26

3roach: I don't think that is correct. ONGC have the best idea of what's there, and it may not be in their best interest to be successful whilst they have a partner, when they could fail a few wells and buy out 30% for much less than would otherwise be the case for what was described in very bullish terms previously.

As some have noted, its no different to the tactics others may have used to acquire assets cheaply

[3roach] 04/8/2019 12:23

Think the bod have a better idea of what is under CP05 than anyone on here. Cannot value a sweet shop if you don't know what's in the stock room.

[xxnjr] 04/8/2019 11:41

Annual production of crude about 30,000,000,000 bbls.
Iran captures 4,277 bbls.

[ashkv] 04/8/2019 11:24

Oh well - hopefully $80 crude :) :)

[xxnjr] 04/8/2019 11:20

If as reported 700,000l....that's nothing.
Less than a good single day on the OBA!

[westmoreland lad] 04/8/2019 10:43

Morning Martin

[marnewton] 04/8/2019 10:23

I didn't manage to buy tranche three until very recently, and that latest purchase was based on what appears to be a bullish pennant - the technical target is around 25.00/26.00p. Stop-loss for tranche three is 16.00p - the low before the March gap down.

There's a fair amount of support around 16.50/17.25p and we're nicely bouncing off the 8 day EMA.

When(if) we get to my target I'll consider my next move.

M

[ashkv] 04/8/2019 10:22

Was also in the Dailymail - mentions Amerisur as being one of the hunted firms given 8% drop in GBPUSD over the last year.

[ashkv] 04/8/2019 10:20

Bit about Amerisur from the FT Article -
"London-listed Amerisur Resources, whose assets are based mainly in Colombia, said last month it had received interest from external parties and would carry out a strategic review, looking at options including a possible sale.

A few days later, Maurel & Prom (M & P), listed on France’s Euronext exchange, admitted it had made an approach to Amerisur on July 18 about a possible $257m cash and shares takeover.

Amerisur’s board said the 17p-a-share approach “was not at a level, nor in a form, that merited further consideration” and it had held a “number of conversations” with counterparties who had expressed interest in participating in a formal sales process.

Amerisur produced an average of 5,537 barrels of oil per day to the end of June. It is drilling up to 10 wells this year, predominantly in the Llanos basin in central Colombia where most of the country’s oil is produced and where discoveries can be developed quickly and cheaply.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have speculated New York-listed Geopark, which has assets neighbouring those of Amerisur in the Llanos basin, would be among the “most credible” candidates for any possible rival offer.

Amerisur’s shares, which were trading at 14.12p a year ago, are now up at 18p."

[ashkv] 04/8/2019 10:20

FT Article with Amerisur mention - Investor disdain for fossil-fuel producers creates takeover bargains

[ashkv] 04/8/2019 10:13

Rossanan - I find it quite odd how you are stuck on one item / and I have never witnessed such behavior on any share board so I am calling you out.
You surfaced on the other board and droned on repeatedly about 25p - and that is all you are harping about on advfn.
I find this odd pattern of behavior quite extraordinary / out of the blue - therefore I feel I must point out this anomalous conduct....

[xxnjr] 04/8/2019 00:01

Copied and pasted the whole article wrt Amerisur (22448).

[aceuk] 03/8/2019 21:02

What a strange (very) place this is - Amerisur gets a brief write up in the small cap section of the FT along with a couple of other small cap oilers and not a mention …. you really are a bunch!

[lucyp00p] 03/8/2019 20:13

Ha ha, never thought I'd see "horses ass" written on this board. Top man Quid