Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[moneylender] 01/8/2019 18:35

Wasnt it a Friday they declared 'we are up for sale' I wonder what tomorrow will bring?

[sji] 01/8/2019 18:34

Moneylender - cheers, I found it. I thought it would be posted on the front page as well!

[moneylender] 01/8/2019 18:29

sji, same place I got the letter to all employees, as above.

To: The employees of Amerisur Resources plc (the "Company")
As you are aware, the Company has recently announced its decision to conduct a review of the
various strategic options open to it (the "Strategic Review"), including a formal sale process
which may lead to an offer for the Company. Enclosed is a copy of the announcement released by
the Company on 19 July 2019 (the "Strategic Review Announcement").
This email and the enclosed strategic review announcement will be available on the Company's
website at www.amerisurresources.com/investor-centre/formal-sale-process-disclaimer as soon as
possible and in any event no later than 12 noon on 22 July 2019.
We will keep you informed of developments in relation to the Strategic Review and in the
meantime you are recommended not to take any action.
Although making the Strategic Review Announcement commences an "offer period" under the City
Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Takeover Code"), there can be no certainty that a firm
offer will be made by a third party for the Company, nor as to the terms on which any such offer
would be made.
If a firm intention announcement is made by a third party with regard to an offer for the Company
(an "Offer"), the formal offer documentation providing further information about the Offer will be
made available on the Company's website in due course.
The Company wishes to inform you that, under Rule 25.9 of the Takeover Code (the "Code"), you
are entitled to have an opinion from your employee representatives on the effects of the
transaction on your employment appended to the offer or scheme document, when that document
is published. The Company will pay for the employee representatives to obtain professional advice
required for the verification of the information contained in the opinion. This notice is being given
in accordance with Rule 2.11(d) of the Code.
Please be aware that addresses, electronic addresses and certain other information provided by you
for the receipt of communications from the Company may be provided to any potential bidder during
the offer period as required under Section 4 of Appendix 4 of the Code.

[mickinvest] 01/8/2019 18:20

Good find ml

Cheers

[sji] 01/8/2019 18:19

Hi Moneylender - where did you get that presentation because I didn't find it on AMER website?!

Going through it quickly, its the same document as the May 2019 pre-AGM presentation except for page 5 which was completely left out for good reason. It shows how the board says have increased the value of our assets! They left it out so that they do not show their prospective buyers how cheap they got the assets!

However, the document doesn't present any new information since May 2019.

[moneylender] 01/8/2019 18:10

This is why the share price jumped today

Defence doc 1, I would say, upto date statement on the Co and prospects!

[sji] 01/8/2019 17:52

OBA for 31/7 - 2,371

Daily average for July - 3,867
Daily average for June - 4,304

[sportbilly1976] 01/8/2019 17:30

willec,

indeed - a good old 1 trade just preceding the flow of AT buys too :)

[mickinvest] 01/8/2019 17:28

Foiled again, by all accounts the 6500 bopd is being turned into cash on the balance sheet so same difference unless it's filtered into some unknown slush fund!

[westmoreland lad] 01/8/2019 17:22

Suddenly at 16.28pm they upped the share price from 18.38p to 18.74p to buy. During 16.29pm
there were 16 trades mostly buys at 18.82p. Very strange. GL all !

[fatgreek] 01/8/2019 17:00

Ooooh we ended up blue......unless I am coloured blind of course......

[willec1979] 01/8/2019 16:45

I would love to know what went on it the last 2 minutes of trading today and if we are heading into the 19's and 20's tomorrow or next week. Interesting last few minutes of trading today.

[foiledagain] 01/8/2019 16:41

What would seem likely is IF and it is a big IF a private group tried to take Amerisur, they would want JW on board? Doubt they would want GC or NH? Still a potential conflict there though.

I think its more likely that a known takes up baton to bid for Amerisur. They will not want to share with unknowns or potentially lose the opportunity presented to them at present.

[xxnjr] 01/8/2019 16:37

Some small trades just gone through at 18.8p.
Then a UT at 18.44p

[quidnunc] 01/8/2019 16:17

I disagree, you overlook another asset and factor.The business.It's a functioning, profitable money-making machine, hefted to the country, which will continue to make money for whoever owns it provided that the staff, contracts and goodwill are retained.There's a lot more to a business than the sum of its balance sheet assets.Q

[lucyp00p] 01/8/2019 16:10

He was explaining that, rather than a science, reserves are calculated using the formula R = V x T / D x P where R = reserves, V = current pumped volume right now, T = anticipated residual lifetime, D = decay rate of production and P = pick a number.

[tonyrelaxes] 01/8/2019 15:55

Err...

But JW took time and flip charts to demonstrate to PIs at an AGM 3 or 4 years ago that the reserves had gone down because we had stopped taking oil out.

He said when we resumed taking out oil the calculated reserves would increase again.

Funny thing, this world of oil, smoke and mirrors!

[lucyp00p] 01/8/2019 14:54

Well, we took out lots of oil last year and our reserves hardly changed. It's the real estate plus the pipeline that would attract a buyer. Plus, not even Amerisur can spend it as fast as they make it, so a few quid should be left over.

[sji] 01/8/2019 14:32

FoiledAgain - It appears that you did not understand the basic message of my post. The value of AMER will be made up of 2 units - proven reserves + POTENTIAL reserves. The potential (yet undiscovered) reserves are there and the buyer has to pay for them. Since these have not yet been found, they are NOT being depleted at the moment. So, the buyer will get them in FULL once he buys AMER.

The other parts of the price of taking over AMER however represents the c. 17.6m proven reserves that are currently being depleted daily at the rate of 6,500 bopd! These will continue to deplete until the buyer takes over AMER. This depletion will NOT affect the POTENTIAL reserves. But hey, if I was the buyer, for the same price, I would prefer all the POTENTIAL reserves and as much as possible of the proven reserves. This would make me act faster!

And no, I post only as sji.

[foiledagain] 01/8/2019 14:21

sj1

the whole premise of your post is in my opinion wrong.

Any would be purchaser is unlikely to be considering the existing reserves, where they and everyone else will know that pumping oil will take place?

In any event although existing reserves are depleted by every barrel, the same as every other oil company, reserves are also added, but do not get calculated immediately.

CPO-5 a case in point, and even Plat, where reserves may change upwards and downwards, sometimes simply because of oil price, where shutting in a well may seem a good idea, but where doing so might DECREASE stated reserves, because how reserves are calculated are NOT just based on every barrel of oil that is produced.

More likely is potential purchasers are interested in the fact that the current reserves and even the current cash do not represent even a fraction of the undoubted potential that exists throughout the licenses yet to be explored, or those yet to be exploited to the full.

What companies DO NOT want, is to buy a company on its TOP reserve calculation, as then the only way is down, which is the opposite situation to Amerisur.

By any chance were you previously posting as Responsible Investor

[sji] 01/8/2019 14:13

It's almost 2 weeks since announcing the start of the Formal Sales Process. I would guess that by now, whoever is interested in buying parts or all of AMER's assets would have notified his interest. So, IF it is true as the Board told us that there were several entities that contacted AMER BEFORE the actual process commenced, now would be a good time to issue an RNS stating the NUMBER (not the names!) of companies that showed an interest in AMER. By itself, this would raise tensions between those potential bidders who really want our assets.

Furthermore, by now, I would expect that AMER has already provided inside information to these prospective bidders who would be analyzing them before proceeding further. Personally, I would expect some concrete move by bidders within the next 2 weeks. Failing which, I would become bearish of a positive outcome.

Some posters on this board expect the sale process to be quite long, some mentioning even six months! I do not agree with such a long time for a very simple reason. The amount of oil AMER has is definite - some already proven (and we know the amount) whilst a lot other still probable and needs discovering (we have no precise idea how much at this point). However notwithstanding the fact that we cannot quantify the amount of oil at the moment (we only can estimate), the amount is there and is finite. So, every single day that passes, these oil reserves are being depleted at the rate of c. 6,500 bopd (AMER's current production). Therefore, the more bidders wait to buy AMER, the less amount of oil they get! During the past couple of weeks, AMER's reserves have depleted by 100,000 barrels. If the sale process is prolonged to 6 months, AMER would have taken out around 1 million barrels from the current proven reserves! Not very attractive for who is buying, is it?

One can argue that the buyer will find more oil once they drill more wells. However, this argument does not justify any delay for moving on to take AMER over because if there is oil in AMER's blocks, the buyer is likely to find it anyway whether he buys AMER within a month or within six months. The amount of oil AMER takes up in the meantime however, will be lost forever (for the buyer).

So, I would think that any serious bidders will move to take over whatever they are interested in rather soon - after analyzing the inside information being provided by AMER. If we do not get any bids within a short period of time (2-3 weeks), I would turn bearish.

This is obviously AIMO as I am no insider in these dealings.

[ashkv] 01/8/2019 13:21

30 Day Volume Weighted Average

Must be north of 15p now as almost 2 weeks since strategic review announced on Friday 19 July (will be 2 weeks tomorrow 2 Aug).

Maybe Rosanan we can now receive a near 100% premium from an acquirer other than M&P ?? :) :)

No offer was made by M&P - and now easily an offer could be made within 100% of current price & accepted. Clock is ticking 30 Day Volume Weighted Average is Ballooning :) :

[quidnunc] 01/8/2019 13:12

I though perhaps a Hampster but then realised it was just tongue in cheek ....Q

[tyler durden1] 01/8/2019 12:46

They certainly seem to have been spooked over Panama Papers, and seem to have taken a lot of trouble in the process to remain outside of any public scrutiny both in terms of beneficial ownership and anything else.