Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[tom111] 27/1/2019 16:09

Over on lse Hullfc has posted an article from Share hub,very bullish worth a read

[bigwavedave] 27/1/2019 15:28

So, that broker's note in summary: Using incorrect data to the downside, Peel Hunt calculates a target price 20% to the upside.

[paradores] 27/1/2019 14:48

Moving on...

Me? Excited? Nahh, just that in a little over 4 months we'll know what the NW corner of CPO5 holds (LS3 sands) and if 2 more rigs can be commissioned and mobilised for Sol and Aguila, sooner than that. Tasty.
Looking at our discoveries alongside Yatay, Quatiquia to the north, theres a real chance we have the sweet spot: not only the fairway, the entire course, driving range, 19th hole and clubhouse! Abundant CPO5 is gonna be worth a small fortune to Amerisur.

Just makes me chuckle when peeps say "ah, but without CPO5 it would all be a bag of washing", well take a closer look at Tacacho (just one block on the books) and think again. It may be a 30% interest in CPO5 but that's ours, the little beauty is ours!

Let's face it, 30% of a world class asset is a whole lot better than 100% of comida del perros / aire delgado etc ;o)


Mañana en la mañana.

[gersemi] 27/1/2019 13:34

I've called the CEO of ONGC Shashi Shanker but his secretary told me to चोद;ो...........

'ONGC will be looking to explore investment opportunities in around 4-5 international hubs where the entity could achieve adequate growth and source 60 million tonnes of oil and oil equivalent gas per year by 2030.'



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Colombia sounds perfect for ONGC M & A.

I do like the term 're-drawing' which does suggest a renewed purpose and updated plan of action. It's no coincidence that OVL's gone into overdrive now with a multiple well drilling program for CPO-5 (Llanos)

[xxnjr] 27/1/2019 01:32

gersemi perhaps you could telephone the MD, Mr Shasi Shanker of ONGC, and let him know, of the 1000's of business opportunities his company are screening, the company we happen to hold shares in, is top of his list.

[gersemi] 26/1/2019 21:36

'Shanker said ONGC is considering many opportunities for sustaining growth and fulfilling its vision of becoming a global energy leader. The exercise also envisages evaluating potential growth areas, both within and outside India, so that ONGC is able to prioritise suitable actions well in advance.'

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I'm telling you, that AMER will not be a listed company come end 2019

[lucyp00p] 26/1/2019 20:53

Schoolboys are who PH probably employd to analyse E & P companies listed on AIM. Fortunately, their errors are not representative of fair value, giving us more time to load up.

[gersemi] 26/1/2019 18:50

The Amerisur Resources website is constantly being updated today for some reason as though changes and additions are being made to it.

[paradores] 26/1/2019 18:22

Charlieeee, looks like Mr Hunt kept CAPEX for Puts 8,9&12 in the model. If so that's one champion schoolboy error!

CAPEX in 2H/18 was borderline anaemic against the plan
a) Plat interventions + routine maintenance-ops
b) Share of CPO5 costs
c) Plat N sands + civil works (1 drill of 3 planned)

Entonces - no hay posibilidad de gato en el infierno!

[knackers] 26/1/2019 14:58

The point I'm making is in the context of the CPO5 discovery, Platanillo is a side-show. Commercial priorities following events have now changed.

Nothing in E&P is gilt-edged, the garden needs constant tending and you have to take the rough with the smooth.

Sept 2018 post N sands drill Harrison said, 'The reality is that exploration does come with risks. Yes, it is disappointing, and we were anticipating a better result, but it is just a case of moving on with drilling across our leases. If we look at what we are targeting over the next 12 months, the N sands form less than 10pc of what could be on offer. We have these other blocks that we are going to be drilling over the next 12 months, and those are all exciting prospects that open up exciting horizons for us.’

So, some perspective is needed, that said I have no doubt that Platanillo's U and T sands (even N sands as proven in nearby drills) still have considerable potential, but against the size of prize and elevated CoS in CPO5, we've gone from a Gypsy Major Mk2 to a RR Griffon.

"Not something you see every day..."

[tyler durden1] 26/1/2019 12:10

Knackers. Somehow I do not believe Platanillo is yesterday's story and if it was then investors here could suggest they were led up the proverbial, both with the pipeline and the predicted production, let alone the award of options on its imminent and transformational effect on Amerisur.....but.....and its based solely on Amerisur's historical acquisition record.

Having 30% of a big find is great but having 100% of an equally big find with less of an X factor is even better and its still strange to me that the good news for months has always been out of the hands of Amerisur so would have hit the public domain anyway from ONGC.

The suggested additional problems on Plat wells flies right in the face of previous assurances which were conveyed to this bb after someone contacted Amerisur after it was posted that the plat wells all had significant problems and where then the response from Amerisur was a definite NO but that wells had been taken out of production because of oil price...

What often with Amerisur seems deliberately poor information or sometimes seems misinformation that riles investors, has a habit of turning into a masterful acquisition of an asset.

Here's hoping that is the situation at Plat

Now we were told that the pipeline has already paid for itself, but you can't honestly say its been transformational......YET?

[knackers] 26/1/2019 10:51

CPO5 success (exceeding the operator's most bullish estimates) also explains why Plat U & T, let alone elusive N sands, haven't been pursued - a somewhat bigger fish requires frying in CPO5. Crucially AMER can realise the CPO5 NW play with current cash. Platanillo is yesterday's story, it's served its purpose but will continue to provide important base production.

Risk now significantly mitigated by CPO5 success, OXY farm-in and the quality of their partners on the ground - and likely potentially competing suitors.

Only the most cynical would dispute prospects with a thunderstorm of near term activity to look forward to.

[retailronnie] 26/1/2019 09:38

ONGC did commission new 3d seismic last year - can't find the link to the tender doc.

Don't think PH figures will be wildly inaccurate and explains why n sands not followed up.

[gersemi] 25/1/2019 23:14

'OVL continues testing the well, which is 6.5 km from the Mariposa discovery, with varying choke sizes. It plans more exploratory wells and seismic surveys to assess what it calls an “important Cretaceous clastic corridor.”

What the hell is an 'important Cretaceous clastic corridor'?? It sounds important :).. but how important?


OVL tests second strike on Colombian block
HOUSTON, Jan. 24
01/24/2019
By OGJ editors

ONGC Videsh Ltd. (OVL) is testing an oil discovery on trend with its 2017 Mariposa-1 oil strike on Block CPO-5 in Colombia and plans further drilling (OGJ Online, May 5, 2017).

The operator, a wholly owned subsidiary of state-owned Oil & Natural Gas Corp. of India, reported earlier this month that it had logged 284 ft of gross oil pay in the Lower Sands (LS-3) unit of the Cretaceous Une formation in its Indico-1 well. The well encountered pay at 9,833 ft MD and bottomed in Paleozoic rocks at 10,602 ft MD.

Through perforations of a 40-ft interval in the upper part of the LS-3 unit, the well flowed 4,000 b/d of 35.9° gravity oil with 0.3-0.4% bs&w and negligible gas through a 40/64-in. choke. Top-hole pressure was 241 psi.

OVL continues testing the well, which is 6.5 km from the Mariposa discovery, with varying choke sizes.

It plans more exploratory wells and seismic surveys to assess what it calls an “important Cretaceous clastic corridor.”

OVL holds a 70% interest in the block. Petrodorado South America SA Sucursal of Colombia holds 30%.

hxxps://www.ogj.com/articles/2019/01/ovl-tests-second-strike-on-colombian-block.html

[thegreatgeraldo] 25/1/2019 22:53

charliee, the Peel note is about 30 posts above.

I can't see where they get their 2018 capex figure from, although I'd imagine they've spent rather more than the cost of Indico ($2 mill) at CPO-5, preparing 3 drill pads(Indico, Sol & Aguila), putting down roads & other infrastructure

[charlieeee] 25/1/2019 22:39

TGG

The capex figure of $49.6 is likely to be wrong and will result in a major understatement of cash.

Planned capex for 2018/19 was $61m of which $29 million was to be spent in 2018.

In H1 they had only spent $4.6m and in H2 there would have been the $2m (our share of Indico) plus the N sand single drill.

I would be surprised if capex was a third of the figure you quote as being used by Peel Hunt and we therefore still have that cash to fund the 2019 program. Added to that, OXY are now funding much of the Putumayo capex and CPO-5 looks as if it will fund itself.

[yasrub] 25/1/2019 22:34

You look at the Peel Hunt note and read JW's comments towards the end of the update - indicating all planned activities fully funded from company resources, debt free and he couldn't be more excited and optimistic ! Who has a better idea of the potential for AMER ?

[xxnjr] 25/1/2019 22:19

thanks for the note. Have updated it, using PH's NPV inputs......

Have assumed Core NAV is the same as PH Note, give or take a few fractions of pence, equals 15.84p
Have assumed Mecaya value is zero.

Have assigned a 50% COS to "Indico 3P 40' ODT" [+10.61mmbo gross, if successful]
Have assigned a 25% COS to "Calao-1 Mean 5.536"
Have assigned a 40% COS to "Pavo Real-1 Mean 22.33"
[Rationale....C-1 is SW of known oil, whereas PR-1 is between Indico-1 & Mariposa-1]
Have assigned Zero value for everything else.
Risked NAV = 25.05p per share.
==============================
If C-1 and PR-1 come in, then NAV = 29.03p per share
If combination trapping is proved - NAV will be higher.
========================================================
If Indico-2 + Indico-3 deepen ODT by 40', then NAV = 30.23p
==============================================================

Just a rough indication of the possible direction of travel. Don't take this too seriously. DYOR. (have not read recent posts b4 posting this, and have consumed 3 glasses of red wine!!!)

xx

[charlieeee] 25/1/2019 20:00

The company stored the oil for December onsite, instead of selling it and that is likely to have had a significant effect on cash at bank and inventory apropos the year end figures, (as well as 2018 sales).

Once sold, the inventory will reduce and cash at bank increase.

Peel Hunt will not have any more information than us, so none of their figures should be taken as any thing other than guesstimates.

[plentymorefish] 25/1/2019 18:32

In the research disclosures at the end of the note, Peel Hunt have only declared number 4 which means:

Peel Hunt makes a market in this company

So that's that then.....

[underhill2] 25/1/2019 18:26

Because Stifel is Amerisurs broker. I never take any notice of any brokers comments and share price targets. Their own broker is always going to have much higher targets.

[knackers] 25/1/2019 18:12

"Longevity... Incept dates... Questions."

;o)