Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[tonyrelaxes] 02/1/2019 20:27

gersemi 15382 “a decent Director”

Hmmm... makes me think back a bit (excuse the use of your phrase instead of its sentence!).

According to the 2017 AR, he had been a Senior Independent Director supervising “an enhancement to corporate governance practices and shareholder engagement”.

Bearing in mind he -
- Was bussed in and confirmed at a subsequent AGM against much opposition from the floor. From memory, never opening his mouth to shareholders.
- Never opened his mouth to shareholders at the next AGM (I was told)
- Orchestrated, or at least rubber stamped, the ground breaking project based options for a few directors, which appears to have caused Rex to set about creating the massive drop in share price
- So “Senior Independent” and concerned with “governance practices” that, despite doubtless sitting alongside DE for many Directors Meetings over 11 months (from memory), he failed to notice DE was far from “independent” and had to retrospectively declare that his (DE’s) company was receiving sums under separate contracts from AMER.

“a decent Director”?

I don’t think so!
Apart that is to a few other directors - not this shareholder's involvement.

[bad gateway] 02/1/2019 20:10

I bought on the chart c. 10p Lucy. Think a few did. Still holding too having added in the 12's . Sentiments too good to sell.

[lucyp00p] 02/1/2019 20:03

But did you buy at 10? I did. No chart for me, just fundamental analysis of data and anticipated outcomes demonstrated a too good to last opportunity.

[tradesmarter] 02/1/2019 19:48

Great result today as 16p smashed and no longer an issue. For me todays fundamental news also meant that the technicals finally nailed the long term downtrend and for me that signals much bigger gains ahead as the trend is confirmed up. Think I said before that 18-22p area is where I expect to pause for a breather and now we have some healthy gains I'd expect a very small pullback to say 17.25-17.5 area to allow the short termers to lock in their profits, but I'm hoping we can then land in the 18-22p range.(18p previous resistance will turn support)

Shows long term overhead resistance has been smashed (may have a final backtest)

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


This is my "best guess" for the short terms as numbers of importance on the way down always have a habbit of being a very short term reaction on the way up. 17.5 area should now be support with 16p being MEGA SUPPORT....shortly 18p will be our new base support in my view

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


The "simple view" just implies to hold/add as we are marching towards 22p

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


previous view now confirms 16p as MEGA support

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


previous view targeting 18p....BUT the big profits come from doing nothing!...too many sell on a whim and dont realise the hardest part of investing is holding thru an uptrend and adding retraces to support....dont be one of those further down the line saying *sugar* why did I sell for 20% when you can likely get 200% in the med term?

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Lot of folk thinking £1 and 60p now likely....whilst that is possible on future drilling results, for now 32-36p seems to be a more realistic target...but "technically" 40p top of wedge is the bigger target and then 55-65p is possible with some luck and maybe a takeover longer term?...My plan is just to stay long unless the uptrend breaks BUT 32-36 seems is my first "investment" target....whatever your views you have, stick to your game plan and look back saying "ye-ha I held the uptrend, bought the retracements and locked in a whopping profit..thats my plan anyway )

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[leas1] 02/1/2019 19:45

tyler, it was an article based on four reasons why the journalist thought there was a probability of a oil price rally. That said, my personal view is that it does look horrendous for them.

[tyler durden1] 02/1/2019 19:37

leas1
its far more than a quarter. You should disregard comments from the EIA and CEOs and concentrate on the SEC filings as that will tell the real picture. It looks horrendous for shale.

Shale was a loss leader with government backing and zirp and nirp policies to assist, as it was part of the game of pretending there is an oil glut.

These companies have had to sell assets, tap investors, get increasing debt and very few have a positive cashflow.

They can't easily cutback on CAPEX because the shale Ponzi is caught in the Red Queen Syndrome and because of the effects of massive decline rates 65-70pc in the first year, and cramming in more wells, even individual initial peak production figures are falling and that will get worse as the sweet spots are all drilled out.

They don't mention too the massive Capex that will be required to properly plug and abandon wells within just a few years, so they keep them going as stripper wells, not economical production of oil, but cheaper than spending $5m per well on thousands of wells, so they are left poorly maintained causing toxic waste to build up, so they are kept on books as producing wells, even if they produce 50bopd but cost twice that to keep going.

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/1/2019 19:27

I wouldn't discount entirely EPS when looking at a smallcap E&P, but wouldn't base an investment case around it. That seems to be the basis for his investment case......

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/1/2019 18:57

gersemi
2 Jan '19 - 18:35 - 15381 of 15383
0 1 0
I suspect the Saudi plan is to whipsaw (cut supply to force up oil price) oil prices that encourages US shale to commit to capex (using debt) in the hope of rising prices and then flood the market to crush the price leaving US shale oilers with capex liabilities (debt financed cap spending) and a falling oil price..

..just one note of caution....borrowing comes with conditions attached, those that have been borrowing to finance drilling the last few years will have large hedges in place. That party's now over, for the time being at least.....

[eggbaconandbubble] 02/1/2019 18:48

Interesting theory gersemi.

[gersemi] 02/1/2019 18:47

That's a decent Director buy of 200k at 17.5

I bet AMER is taken over before end 2019

[gersemi] 02/1/2019 18:35

I suspect the Saudi plan is to whipsaw (cut supply to force up oil price) oil prices that encourages US shale to commit to capex (using debt) in the hope of rising prices and then flood the market to crush the price leaving US shale oilers with capex liabilities (debt financed cap spending) and a falling oil price.....US shale producers won't know whether they're coming or going at this rate as they struggle to absorb the volatility of the POO. Do they invest more, cut back on capital spending etc etc? The Saudis are running rings around them..

[leas1] 02/1/2019 18:29

Lucy, I think shale companies are struggling to be profitable due to the high extraction costs. As a result, investment is scaling back and in some cases being shelved. I have also read recently about regulation into disposal of contaminated water is being tightened and again increasing overheads. I posted the following link on the LSE bb this morning which provides a possible insight on oil futures. Of course only opinion but AMER are profitable even at half the current PoO.

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-2019-Could-Start-With-An-Oil-Rally.html

[juuunx2] 02/1/2019 18:23

I've been saying that on here for ages loads to drill and rigs are at historic low prices. Cash in bank plenty to cover costs even at $5 million per rig. They are fully funded already for current campaign anyway. It's been a great start to the year so far long may it continue. Good luck all and happy new year

[lucyp00p] 02/1/2019 17:39

Shale companies have attracted huge amounts of capital from Wall Street over the past decade. So far, investors have largely lost money. Since 2008, an index of U.S. oil and gas companies has fallen 43%, while the S&P 500 index has more than doubled in that time, including dividends. The 29 companies in the Journal's analysis have spent $112 billion more in cash than they generated from operations in the last 10 years, according to data from FactSet, a financial-information firm.

[lucyp00p] 02/1/2019 17:34

Fracking's Secret Problem-Oil Wells Aren't Producing as Much as ForecastWall Street Journal, just now

[lucyp00p] 02/1/2019 17:32

Good job today guys, keep it up.

[paradores] 02/1/2019 17:26

Top drawer result at Indico-1 today, but find myself in muted-mood...

- The potential and quality of CPO5 was flagged with the M-1 drill
- That potential was discounted by many
- The share price was effectively dismantled by one man and his grudge
- The upshot (ugh, bad pun that ;) one heck of a lot of ground to be made-up

Indico success massively de-risks what will now follow. It's a big find, in the next 2-3 months we'll have a handle on just how BIG.

The case for a 2nd rig is compelling. Let's make it so.

[swerves1] 02/1/2019 16:28

Great news update today.
Is there a better AIM share for 2019 and beyond? I really don't think so.
With oil prices soaring right now, tomorrow should be another good day here imo!

[knackers] 02/1/2019 16:16

Rumours of stronger than expected US non-farm payroll data.

[tyler durden1] 02/1/2019 16:15

Rex must be pleased to see Amerisur's share price now surpassing Pantheon

[kemche] 02/1/2019 15:17

POO up $2 in 15 minutes.

[lucyp00p] 02/1/2019 15:11

When he joined he acquired £30k's worth at 30p if I recall.