Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[d1nga] 12/6/2018 13:27

let my virtual friends know the start up company contact details so they can do due diligence and cut you out of the deal ;-)

[thegreatgeraldo] 12/6/2018 13:26

"Multi million pound backing" which seemingly isn't enough.

[lucyp00p] 12/6/2018 13:18

here is a question for you all.I have received an approach from a senior representative of a start-up company in financial services offering me an opportunity to buy in to a "sure thing" for a minimum €100,000 stake. I am confidently assured that the shares will come to market within 18 months at a 125% premium to my subscription price. The company in question has multi million pound backing and is not a punt. To raise capital I would have to liquidate a large portion of Amerisur and commit my cash for the long haul. I suspect Amerisur needs two or 3 good drilling results to yield a similar return.Needless to say I'm conflicted. What would you do?

[utsushi] 12/6/2018 12:42

May 2018 Average Production 4,807 boepd.

1.Demonstrates than you can never be too paranoid or vigilant in this game, since the unexpected and unexpectable will frequently happen, and the only constant is change.

A great oil man once said, "you have a fair fortune, good property, but what happens if the oil fields gave out".

2.I neither have the experience or knowledge to assess the type of water cut, weather easy or difficult, possible remedies and long term implications in the Platanillo field, we know that treatment at Platanillo-11/20 was effective, and we will have a better assessment after June/July production figures.

3.Since the failure of the company to maintain a constant 6,000+ bopd, the shares are no long a buy-equally the proximity to a new 3 well drilling campaign makes the shares a hold.

4.Value investors are patient waiting for the intrinsic, but some flexibility might be needed based on news flow and to reflect risk management-in my book the shares might start to get interesting again once they reach 18p-20p.

[charlieeee] 12/6/2018 12:17

FA

Well that provoked a similar response from us, for once!

Lucy

The share price movement is only relevant on volume: otherwise, it can be a few ikes (including the dreaded MMs) having a bit of fun.

[bryet] 12/6/2018 12:13

The price of the share price says it all nobody is impressed only hope is for a few good finds in the next 6 months.

[charlieeee] 12/6/2018 12:00

What absolute nonsense.

For those who have pre school maths, let alone alleged accounting skills, July is one month away and unless there is significant delay, drilling will take place in 3 fields.

Of course, there is risk, but then, there are the potential rewards and that is the attraction of an oil company.

My risk analysis is based on a number of criteria, the most important of which are

. the cost of the drilling is funded from earnings.
. there are multiple drills rather than a single risk (3 planned and with alternatives).
. each prospect has a decent COS (P 50 ie 50% chance of success)
. the industry generally regards the country as having a high drill success rate.
. other companies in adjacent areas are currently experiencing success.

and last, but not least

. management are experienced and have had relevant success (in reverse order for JW, CPO-5, Platinillo, EE).

My conclusion is that the potential reward justifies the level of risk in this case.

The weighted balance of probability for those of a mathematical turn of mind expects a positive outcome and delays are disastrous short term for the SP, but do not ultimately affect that positive outcome.

[foiledagain] 12/6/2018 11:47

Underhill. Was it nonsense that the situation occurred at Alea?

When others looked JW in the eye over Alea before we had 100% of it, he was adamant he would find that no problem.

[chopper harris1] 12/6/2018 11:41

I agree, Underhill2. Recent events have shown that this management probably don't have the nous to conduct any such games, even if they wanted to.

In my opinion the current situation is down to pure incompetence, poor timing of communications and the management's complacent arrogance and their complete contempt for their shareholders.

I bet they're glad that the AGM was last month and not coming up in the near future!

[underhill2] 12/6/2018 11:19

All these theories that Mangement are playing a game is nonsense in my opinion. Foiled again you are a brave investor. Yes you do have to speculate to accumulate but Investing here is now a big risk on future drills being successful. I think we are 12-months away from any good news here. More than ever this is now a long term hold and my strategy here is to not watch daily share movements and just show patience for possible good news in the future. Amerisur is an example of how investing in AIM is a speculative gamble with big risks. The choice is yours.

[dodge city] 12/6/2018 11:08

15p is generous, production is in steep decline and they are racing against the clock to turn it around.

[kingivor] 12/6/2018 10:27

would like to see news on Mariposa-1 post add. perforation c. 6000+ bopd
think they were perforating additional 24ft below top 12ft zone

[griffin81] 12/6/2018 09:45

With the latest note from Research Tree changing their rating yesterday to 'reduce' with a target price of 15p based on poor actual and expected production, whilst disappointing, if it consolidates at that level and holds, it could be a decent entry price prior to the upcoming drilling campaign. Not a great few weeks, however if they can achieve the program timescales, and make discoveries, the upside would be significant. They just need to start drilling now...

[jotoha2] 12/6/2018 09:23

Back in , top of the trading range is now 22p , so will take that .

[dayway123] 12/6/2018 09:03

Quite right Foiled, there is no reason to produce more oil when there is no where for it to go except by tanker. Until the pumping station is complete we can expect pretty much of the same, but I’m quite sure it will be designed to pump far in excess of 9000pd this will coincide with the work overs and new exploration wells and is planned to come together.

[paradores] 12/6/2018 08:57

The current mood music here - a classic precursor to the business being bought on the cheap..? Is patience really that exhausted..? I fear that is where we may be headed and over the next couple of months will be at our most exposed. Clearly such an outcome would not be in any ones interest (other than the acquirer!)

Mgt have to be allowed to complete this next 10-12 month campaign. Initiation of the programme is what it is, yes it may be a few weeks adrift for reasons beyond the control of anyone on the ground - but bear in mind, the CoS in this area are excellent.

[lucyp00p] 12/6/2018 08:48

I thought you'd moved on

[knokke1] 12/6/2018 08:45

Point taken, and of course, very much understood that news flow control is an important part of the play. I think the scenario you layout is perfectly plausible, but for that sort of blind trust type approach to investing, I'd like to see a higher risk reward. If they pull it off, I'll pile in after it leaves the launch pad.

When they announced delays - with which I have no problem at all - 'as previously advised' when it takes 10 seconds to check what they previously advised the month before, I wondered who they were trying to fool.

[foiledagain] 12/6/2018 08:37

Clear honest RNS's....a rarity on AIM, but sometimes an impossibility if it interferes with background strategy.

Example. Company bigs up a decent oil find that it has two other partners who would do what? Either seek to grab your share, or put up the cost of theirs.

Example: Company bigs up problems or allows others to keep making problems.....result it buys up the other percentages for a song.

Transparency is important but sometimes just sometimes the BoD have a lot more information than bb posters rightly frustrated at what they sell but where what they see may only be what someone wants them to see!

Of course its not always good, as it can work the other way.

Company bigs up its potential, increases share price but the potential is nothing like the prospectus or news announcements....

You cant accuse Amerisur of the latter at present, as it seems happy to produce poor news.

[knokke1] 12/6/2018 08:27

I've sold out and moved on from here, frustrating, as what they are trying to do in Colombia looks really good, but until there is an effective management and board, I'll only be comfortable with this stock as a momentum play, not a long term hold.

If they pull off what they could do, it would be fantastic, though they also have to get the other stuff right. One of those things, just a little thing, is writing honest, clear RNSs. How the people who signed off on that RNS in London last week can justify their wages I have no idea. Are they really the people who can get all that 'other stuff' right?

I'd love to come back in on this stock, I'll keep a close eye on the well spudding etc. but till then, good luck everyone.

[foiledagain] 12/6/2018 08:26

remember Alea?

Refresh:
For months and months not only was there no good news, there seemed to be nothing but bad news....Water problems water problems water problems. All the while JW suggested quietly he had the wherewith all to overcome that.

RESULT Amerisur got Plat for a song
The news then changed rapidly, JW did overcome the problem.

Don't ever believe an AIM company or Amerisur has not got the ability if it chooses to ensure news flow is whatever they want.

In my opinion there are still sellers with the casting off of Amerisur from investment lists shown in a previous post.

Still no end RNS from RH indicating his selling is over?
We also had some minor investors (probably owning more than most of us) disposing of Amerisur shares as the MSCI GLOBAL SMALL CAP INDEXES shows Amerisur was off the list. So millions of shares sloshing around and no RNS showing additional holdings notices from major holders yet.

If history is anything to go by the idea this BoD are sitting on their hands just doesn't cut it. They got a wad of options probably too many imo. But they will want the future to make those options worth a fortune along with their own share purchases.

Strategy doesn't work if everyone and their dog knows about it, and what seems to be a choice to produce less than inspiring news and the fact that good news has done little for the share price whilst an iceberg exists with the BoD seemingly none too worried about the SP?

Sorry but I do not believe Giles and JW and the others would just fiddle whilst Rome burns unless its for a strategy yet to unfold.

Do you think they don't know about the bulletin board?

Do you think they decided on a pipeline for the fun of it?

The asset acquisitions for next to nothing...just for fun?

Look, I don't like what I see, but what I see seems to be by design.

I don't believe for one minute that Plat is exhausted, let alone the other assets that are so much bigger.

Bumping along at below 5,000bopd or 5,000bopd? We cant put more than that through the OBA yet anyway? Pumping a lot more throws money away.

Not rose tinted spectacles but history repeating itself perhaps. Just take a look back at the Alea timespan, and how everything seemed to be about bad news.......for a reason.