Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[meneither2] 19/3/2018 17:14

Nobody believes a word the bod say maybe?!

[eggbaconandbubble] 19/3/2018 17:04

harrisun, if the problem isn't RH selling - What is the problem???

[lucyp00p] 19/3/2018 14:58

It's a shame nobody but us poor saps believe these articles.

[bryet] 19/3/2018 13:57

Would like to see the share price holding but I fear it won't until Rex gets his holding down to zero which could take many months looks like he's trying his best to offload just wish it he could hurry it up so the share price could get back to where it was a year ago.

[kaos3] 19/3/2018 07:23

as far as I can see it has THE perfect value in its history - low share price, no debt, cash in the bank, producing cash, lots to go after,diversified portfolio, potential takeover (GeoPark), low break even, Rex almost gone, investors getting annoyed with the chief

SP Will reverse soon

from this moment I can no see imminent down risk. It would take a genious to make a mess

[seball] 19/3/2018 07:10

Great Article thanks

[thetoonarmy2] 19/3/2018 06:09

ShareProphets EPIC code: AMERAmerisur Resources can turn its fortunes around and has an exciting year aheadBy Gary Newman | Sunday 18 March 2018If you like this, please share this article using the buttons below Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.Amerisur Resources (AMER) has certainly failed to live up to the expectations of its investors and the share price has been in a downward spiral for several years now.But rather than viewing this decline as being terminal, I can see plenty of potential long-term value here, especially as you'd be buying at close to the lowest price that the shares have traded at – just 16p odd to buy currently.The company has oil assets in Colombia and Paraguay, as well as owning 100% of the OBA pipeline into Ecuador, and the team behind it has been running the company for over a decade and has brought it through to the production stage – albeit that growth in daily output hasn't been as rapid as some were hoping.Production currently comes from the Platanillo field and the last update at the end of 2016 showed that had 1P reserves of 15.1 million barrels, with over 24 million barrels of 2P. But there is also plenty of potential for further increases to reserves, and given all of the drilling activity during the past year, it is expected that these figures will show significant increases at the next update.Production has been on the increase and has been almost at the forecast 7,000bopd – during February it averaged 6,749bopd, and that included three lost weeks at Platanillo-6 which was re-completed with the loss of 300bopd during that time, but should now be back in production – with more than 5,400bopd being exported through the OBA pipeline.The OBA pipeline cost around $18 million when it was built, but the latest update from the company revealed that it had just transported its two millionth barrel through it in the 15 months that it has been operational, and that had saved the company more than $20 million in transport costs. That has also helped to reduce opex to $15/barrel – prior to the pipeline transport costs alone were running at $14.05/barrel compared to the current rate of just $3.90/barrel.With more drills to come at Platanillo, and also at its Putumayo blocks 9 and 12 – the Airu-1 well flowed at 450bopd – I would expect production to continue to increase, and that will result in further savings as a result of owning the OBA pipeline.In addition the company also owns 30% of CPO-5, and the Mariposa-1 well commenced production towards the end of last year, and was producing at a controlled rate of 3,100bopd whilst long term testing is carried out, and it is expected that there will be further increases there.As a result of this higher expected production in the near future, the company has entered into an agreement to construct the Chiritza re-pumping station on the Cuyabeno-Lago Agrio export line in Ecuador, and this will guarantee Amerisur with a minimum of 9,000bopd.It is expected to cost the company $3.7 million upfront, but that will be recovered as it will be treated as a pre-payment of the existing transport tariff over the first 5,000bopd. The plan is for this to be completed by October this year, and in the future further work could be carried out to expand the capacity that Amerisur can export – ultimately up to 50,000bopd.There is plenty of drilling to come, with the Indico-1 well at CPO-5 expected to spud within the next few months; a three well drilling programme at Putamayo-9 in Q3; plus a three-well programme at Putamayo-12 gets underway later in the year. The size of the prospective resources being targeted are such that success should offer plenty of upside, if any of the drills comes in as planned – total unrisked P50 resources for the company stand at in excess of 1.1 billion barrels.Obviously, all of this drilling doesn't come cheaply, although being onshore means it is still reasonable, but the company is fully funded for its work up until the end of 2018 as long as the oil price remains above $45 (in 2017 it typically traded at a $4.5/barrel discount to Brent). At the last set of finances, up to June 30 2017, the company still remained debt-free, plus at that time it had $29 million in the bank.Figures for the profitability of the company currently don't look all that impressive, although in H1 2017 it did generate net cash flows from its operations of $7.76 million, but it is still investing heavily in appraisal and exploration of its assets, as well as increasing production levels, so that is something that I am prepared to accept at this stage.This looks to be a company that has plenty of potential to grow in the coming years, and looks decent value to me considering the market cap of just over £190 million, as the upside could be large. It is also largely operating in an area, and in reservoirs, which it already understands to some degree from past drilling activity, and there is enough going on here during the remainder of the year to keep investors interested. In terms of the risks, no single well should damage the share price too much either in the event of failure, and in light of a fairly aggressive drilling programme.Colombia is a country which has had more than its fair share of problems in the past, but a lot has changed in recent years and it is now generally a safe and stable environment to operate in.At the current share price this looks to me to offer good risk/reward and I would view the shares as a good buy, providing of course that oil prices remain buoyant, which I expect them to do for the foreseeable future.

[laptop15] 18/3/2018 18:40

Nice article by shareprophets in amer

[laptop15] 18/3/2018 18:39

https://twitter.com/ShareProphets/status/975419317356347392?s=19

[moneylender] 18/3/2018 11:25

Thanks Dave, doing some research on this cold winter morning.

[bigwavedave] 17/3/2018 08:32

ML - yes, according to an email from NH (to someone else).

[laptop15] 16/3/2018 20:23

Agreed seaball...close above 16p is the trigger for the overdue rise :))

[seball] 16/3/2018 16:48

Chart looking very positive for next week. Once 16p ceiling has broken, expect a sharp increase in share price Good luck all

[thegreatgeraldo] 16/3/2018 16:40

Fingers x'd Eddie! Finally dipped a toe in here this after..

[eddie_yates] 16/3/2018 16:22

If last year is to be repeated, the charm offensive will hopefully be starting soon!!

[juuunx2] 16/3/2018 16:05

Yes it seems to of gone a little quiet on the drilling front news would be welcome

[acv74] 16/3/2018 15:44

A nice profit to 31/12/17 hopefully, with the promise of much better numbers in 2018 and beyond.Maybe if people see the (hopefully) good numbers in black and white that will provide the impetus we need to finally get the share price moving.I also want to see much more detail around our drilling plans and how we are going to get to 20k bpd.

[moneylender] 16/3/2018 15:31

That official Dave?

[bigwavedave] 16/3/2018 15:07

Annual results on April 16.

[juuunx2] 16/3/2018 14:29

Patience will be rewarded I'm sure.

[laptop15] 16/3/2018 13:29

Byret, all will be fine we've seen this share price price action before and soon enough it will be back in the 20s. I'm confidently holding and topping up ;-)

[bryet] 16/3/2018 13:06

Hard to keep positive while the share price keeps falling just hope everything comes ok in the end and that I don't live to regret that I held on.

[eggbaconandbubble] 16/3/2018 09:40

Lucy, good point.

Dodge, Can you please expand on that.