Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[blackdown2] 10/4/2017 15:05

Val

RBC made the same sort of comment re the OBA a while back as well.

[valentine] 10/4/2017 15:00

I was saying that several years ago 3r. Maybe another dip in on the dip? They were saying ten years ago the crossborder pipeline was the game changer along with Paraguay territory three times bigger than Wales. And Fenix and curapaty and and. Julian garcia ex-anh said platanillo was the bird in the hand when I met him at another Colombian oilie AGM years ago get him on board with DC and we have the dream team

[3roach] 10/4/2017 14:44

Agreed, just hope we are all still young enough to enjoy our spoils when this has reached it full potential!! :)

[al101uk] 10/4/2017 14:33

3roach,

Nor it's effect on reserves :-)

That's the carrot that keeps all us long termers here, despite the frustration... next year Rodney.

WL,

You planning on asking the question?

[westmoreland lad] 10/4/2017 14:26

----- It will do at the AGM !!

[3roach] 10/4/2017 14:22

al101, many thanks for your thoughts. I'm not sure that newer or potential pi's are even aware that we have such a quantity of shut in 'production' in our back pocket. This rarely seems to get a mention.

[al101uk] 10/4/2017 14:09

3roach,

Never clarified, but my latest best guess is that there are general improvements that can be made that should see gradual increases in capacity.

That's the only way I can make Malcy's comments make sense when he said the pumping station is an option "if needed", but plenty of headroom and also the comments of the management where they say improvements required to ship more than 5k.

So I'm expecting gradual increases and should the pumping station become a reality I expect an RNS, a capital expenditure program and some sort of deal with PA... your boom would follow some time after that I expect.

[al101uk] 10/4/2017 14:04

That's right, there was always transport issues, a limited supply could be trucked economically, but the rest was expensive because the second reception area was miles away. Our supply was outpacing what the combined reception could accommodate, so we were constrained way back, even before the price drop to something approaching 5kbopd.

When the price of oil fell through the floor it wasn't commercially sensible to continue trucking the oil, especially with the OBA imminence, so we started shutting in wells. Two years later, all of that work, all of that success and all of the success since still isn't bearing fruit and for some reason we're not even trucking the limited capacity we had that was/is still commercially viable.

[3roach] 10/4/2017 14:00

Just wondering if remedial works on the pumping station will facilitate a gradual increase or will it be a boom (hopefully not an audible one) where we can shove though full taps wide production?

[tsmith2] 10/4/2017 13:59

Is the conference for all and sundry or just malcy?

[mintington] 10/4/2017 13:54

Yes I think trucking costs were the problem when oil dropped into the 30's......so wells sensibly shut in.....some of these could probably now prove economic as we only have to truck to Pad 9 and the OBA pump head.....so I think we have enough capacity in reserve and obviously each new successful drill increases that and our reserves.....the OBA restrictions are the issue although an uptick of 800 bopd per month then the average of 6-7000 in 2017 should be achievable ....this would mathematically suggest a 2017 exit of approx 10,000 bopd ...I do think they are being rather pessimistic in their "over 7000" commentary....sticking with them

[3roach] 10/4/2017 13:48

Ps, that's exactly what I figured, that when poo increased from the 'shut in' lows that we would be swinging to taps open once more. As you say though, quiet ever since.

[3roach] 10/4/2017 13:43

Cheers al101, so presumably once we are de-bottlenecked these taps can simply be turned if they decided to? With existing wells we could send at least double current quantity down the OBA?

[al101uk] 10/4/2017 13:36

I think these figures were from April 2014:

Iguasa-1=20
Alea-1R =0
Alea-1R-ST=700
Platinillo-1-ST=530
Platinillo-2=100
Platinillo-3=1500
Platinillo-4=500
Platinillo-5=1500
Platinillo-6=1150
Platinillo-10=1000
Platinillo-11=1500
Platinillo-9=730
Platinillo-2-ST=1000 (on test)
Platinillo-12=1450
Platanillo-14=Testing
Platanillo-7=1300


Pad 5 alone has over 3kbopd of shut in production.

All that production potential and we've never meaningfully broken 5K bopd.It was claimed that this production could be easily turned back on whenever the company decided to do so, which is mouthwatering potential, but it's been deathly silence ever since.

[3roach] 10/4/2017 13:28

Anyone hazard a guess as to how much production is currently mothballed and shut in?

[blackdown2] 10/4/2017 13:12

What's the 'technical situation in the market' that M's blog refers to. Is this the recent drip-drip sellling?

[al101uk] 10/4/2017 12:24

Grrrrrrrr... why isn't the conf call open to all shareholders like pretty much every other company I own... will it be made available to PI's after the event? Of course not!

Instead we have to rely on a paragraph or two from a journa... sorry, analyst who happens to write a blog.

[al101uk] 10/4/2017 12:17

oilandgas1,

I believe Analysts typically target "within 12 months". The actual valuation will be based on a series of assumptions within the buy note, the main ones being the price of oil and the production rate. Not privy to the buy note, so couldn't comment on if they are realistic or not. From my own work, I'd say they are probably reasonable at 45p.

ROI is dependant on oil price/lifting costs etc, I guess they could give an idea based on the $45 per barrel number they seem keen on using generally... but then they give you the numbers to do it yourself using whatever metric you see fit.

The other companies you mention are very different investments with very different risk/reward.

blackdown,

'of immense benefit to shareholders'

I immediately wondered "which shareholders" ;-)

Quite optimistic really, the results were a non-event, I'm just relieved that the market didn't decide to punish the company for what is now history. The noises coming out of the company definitely seem more shareholder friendly.

[bigwavedave] 10/4/2017 12:00

Malcy says:
Amerisur Resources
Results today from AMER which as usual tell us little about the forward investment case. Key to everything is the OBA which came online last year and is now jacking up throughput. Volumes are key here, at 5/- b/d cash opex falls from $26 to $15 changing all the economics and that milestone is now within reach. Indeed a peak flow rate of 5,008 was achieved on the 6th April and should be par for the course from now on. Guidance for this year is now 6-7/- b/d, exiting 2017 at 7/- b/d rising to 20/- b/d by 2019.
The company has nine, fully funded wells planned in the next 18 months and are creating the much discussed ‘Putumayo Cluster’ which should provide focus and economic strength. The company had $40.1m of cash at the year end and an undrawn RBL facility if needed so remain in a strong position on this front. I remain of the view that this potential good news is not reflected in the price and that upside is substantial particularly once the technical situation in the market is sorted out, more after con call which is at 2.30.

[oilandgas1] 10/4/2017 11:37

As for cantors view on valuation .. 45p ..no timeline provided but earliest would be in 2019 if 12-15kbopd+ achieved by then .. more realistically.. if we get 6-7Kbopd in 2017 then 32p-36p and maybe 9-10Kbopd in 2018 then 36-40p could be achievable.

The regular comms will be key and progress on throughput in OBA .. as we are not making any great financial gains (apparently) until volumes above 5kbopd through the OBA!! (are we even paying for the (8-9m overspend aswell) OBA investment yet (ie any revenue generated against the invested monies) - what is the ROI and how long will it take??).

I would still take a 30p sale in the next few months or a change of management (GC and JW replaced) in May17. Otherwise there would be better opportunities elsewhere in the next 3- 6 months e.g. VOG, AEX, ARS, HUR,

[francis55] 10/4/2017 11:36

Thankfully we did not have to keep pumping oil to service debt repayments as we have no debt but as such this kind of lets BoD off hook as no external pressure is applied to keep them on their toes other than us lot.If Plat 22 comes good and OBA tips 5000 bopd to trigger opex savings then we should see that 45p share price most talk about.

[foiledagain] 10/4/2017 11:29

Some of the sells are wrong. Looks like Bed & Isa transactions.

You have the total less commission shown in two transactions that I suspect are buys and the sell order underneath it.

Distorts the figures but to be expected this time of year

[bigwavedave] 10/4/2017 11:13

Al
re: "The Remuneration Committee does not intend to make any option awards in 2017" and "the Company has put in place measures to improve its stock market communications."
Looks to me like the white flag is flying over St Mellons. Or least it is an attempt at a ceasefire.