Ambrian Capital Share Discussion Threads

[trader351] 25/3/2008 15:23

Well, looks like your broker was wrong. Ambrian have told us nothing over the last few months. Talk about poor investor relations. Maybe the bigger players have a clue though.

[vixen] 20/3/2008 09:21

According to my broker results are out 21st march 2008! So maybe later on today?

[trader351] 19/3/2008 08:25

I think perception has got us here. If there is a significant drop in profits, someone got a sniff of that from the company which would be illegal of course + very damaging to the existing holders. I don't suppose investment banks are flavour of the month too. I am a tad concerned though.

[traderabc] 18/3/2008 20:59

Was it Northern Rock & Bear Stearns that did this to my 'old friend' GOL ? I suppose it is an investment bank,but commodities aren't exactly the same as sub prime. Why this weakness ? "news will make the chart irrelevant" Or will it explain why we are this low ?

[trader351] 14/3/2008 08:19

Yep, news will make the chart irrelevant. Have they announced a day for the results.

[jfishy] 13/3/2008 16:15

Mat 2006 onwards showed support at 50p.
I would think we now need to look at the resistance seen at around 39p from 2004 to mid 2005.

Either way, AMBR is in a descending price channel that will be broken out of sooner of later & the fundamentals are good.

Looking forward to the next RNS...

[trader351] 13/3/2008 08:32

I'm no technician, but low 50 has never offered strong support.

[traderabc] 12/3/2008 20:35

"recent drop in price"

Sorry ,I really ment the recent break through a strong support level (low 50 area). Longer term trendline support has also gone. It's not looking good.

[jfishy] 12/3/2008 19:17

"recent drop in price"

The drop has been going on for around 10 months.
If this were "insider trading" I would expect to be reflected over 2 weeks at most.

[trader351] 12/3/2008 19:11

Well, that would be illegal wouldn't it, but I could certainly believe it. Unless it's just me, there's such a lack of transparency to this business it makes in incredibly difficult to assess between one set of results to the other. Certainly a large element of speculation.

[traderabc] 12/3/2008 18:35

I was worrying that the recent drop in price,is the work of insiders knowing that Ambrian are going to release poor results.

[trader351] 12/3/2008 16:22

It most certainly would. Back to 60 levels would be a start. I'm just praying the results will be half decent, with an increase in dividend.

[brad1] 12/3/2008 15:07

cmon ambrian all the way back to 90p would be good for starters!

[davebowler] 12/3/2008 08:42

Apparently the commodities side had a' good 'February in a call I made to them yesterday.

[scribbler101] 11/3/2008 15:01

noop - see title of thread?

[nooption] 10/3/2008 23:11

Perehaps Mr Cawkwell is short.If he is that would explain a lot that is not being explained any other way.

[not manu] 09/3/2008 18:36

I've had a look at the 2007 interim and the *2006 annual reports.

It isn't easy to compute what proportion of net profits relate to share gains and what proportion relate to investment banking activities as note *2 states "the directors do not consider it appropriate to analyse the operating profits between the group's different activities since the overheads are all integrated and any analysis would be misleading".

Therefore, it is misleading to quote any profit figure unless it relates to investment banking activities for the purposes of valuing the company on a p/e basis. For this reason, Ambrian should be valued on a NAV basis in the absence of an analysis of net profits between activities.

Perhaps Mr Cawkwell would care to comment.

[vixen] 09/3/2008 17:30

20% off what price though? 60p? 70p? They made £10mil in 6 months!

[traderabc] 09/3/2008 12:51

That much? Then that would justify about 20% off the share price,unless that 25% is their most profitable slice of the operation.

[vixen] 09/3/2008 12:42

say 25% traderabc

[traderabc] 09/3/2008 11:57

'since the outlook for this business is not good.'

I thought comodities as an asset class had several more years to run. Will Ambrian not continue to benifit? How much of their operation relies on ipo's and broking?

[vixen] 09/3/2008 08:15

What with commodity prices struggling and the company with only £20mil in cash. I presume you think the £45mil capitalisation is a bit heady?

Strip out the cash and the share price values the business at £25mil. The interims show £10mil and they are trading and invested in commodities. Ok the brokerage maybe quiet with little enthusiam for IPO's but this business is invested in some companies that have a bright outlook, hence I don't see this "not good outlook".

Although, there's not long to wait for the finals, so we'll see.......

[simon cawkwell] 09/3/2008 04:04

drago,

I have sold all my family's AMBR. We made £3m - some were sold at around 85p and the bulk at an average of 75p. I was I think the largest private shareholder - with around 5%. But I am not going back in for the time being since the outlook for this business is not good.

Simon Cawkwell

[jfishy] 07/3/2008 18:40

It does seem ridiculously low but then I remember looking in disbelief as NIS dropped from 70 odd p to about 16. It then went back up to 80p

[ilancas] 07/3/2008 14:26

Thea way the share price is dumping, you'd think AMBR was just another financial exposed to the credit crisis. It's not, is it?