Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[excellance] 10/2/2020 09:16

is that chart a correct reflection of reality?

[excellance] 10/2/2020 09:02

number 30 on the "toplists" percentage gainers board!

[highly geared] 10/2/2020 08:48

I know where some way off but with the RESERVES that Altn has, they could produce at 200,000oz a year for nearly 20 years!

Whilst producing at that , enough new Reserves could be developed to repeat that number.

That shows you the size and value of their assets and why, in the current and predicted gold price environment, the share price is ludicrously undervalued , IF they can improve the production profile.

[excellance] 10/2/2020 08:35

looking better and better!

[excellance] 09/2/2020 23:44

With no information regarding production since July last year an update regarding the current situation seems likely considering they must have furnished the banks and others with that data in order to get loans.

With intensive mine development last year and delivery of new equipment I expect to see movement towards their first target of 40,000 t pcm of ore and an improvement in grades.

They hit 29,000 last July but I'd expect neater 35,000 now but what grades and recovery?

So exciting!

[cyberbub] 09/2/2020 22:43

Maybe I'm just having a senior moment LOL. :-)

[excellance] 09/2/2020 22:05

Regardless, I expect altyn to perform very well over the next two years. I intend to invest more of the proceeds of my Eurasia shares when that story ends.

[jc2706] 09/2/2020 21:47

Cyberbub,

If that was the case then it would be a loan.

[excellance] 09/2/2020 19:32

Eh?

Why sell their own shares then give the cash to the company?

[cyberbub] 09/2/2020 18:08

Depends. Maybe the family might keep a chunk of the proceeds. But if they think that selling their 20% across several instis to improve liquidity/credibility, and then investing most of the proceeds into the business is going to make their remaining 50% treble or quadruple (or more) in time, they might think it's sensible?Anyway let's see. It's all just idle speculation until we start getting actual ramping up production and profits!

[novicetrade68] 09/2/2020 17:44

I think like any shareholder, the family is perfectly entitled to a return on their investment, they have been on the market for ten years+, but obviously with the caveat they deliver on what anyone would more or less 'expect'; a healthy y-on-y % production jump, at least 40%++ (should be feasible, going from 15k to 21k) and may be even a more eye catching percentage, but also keep their AISC the same and ideally a lot less. Hope the company updates the market before the usual prelimenaries.

[excellance] 09/2/2020 17:00

The directors could sell some of their shares, but ths company wouldn't see that cash. More likely that once production is ramped up to 30 or 40k oz we'll have a placing to raise the cash to fund expansion, conveyors, ventilation, processing facilities etc and move things to a bigger scale.

The next numbers are critical to show that management can deliver and loan repayments can be met.

A placing at 3p sounds good, 6p even better.

I wonder what our share price could be if we produce 40k oz pa and threaten to start paying a dividend?

I doubt they'll pay a dividend prior to full production but who knows...??

[jc2706] 09/2/2020 16:59

The family selling 20% from their holding will only raise money for the family.

[cyberbub] 09/2/2020 14:37

Yes, if they need to raise (say) £15M in equity next year for further development, that will be a lot less dilutive at (say) 3p than at 0.6p... plus maybe selling 20% of the family's 70% stake to raise a further £15M... all that could unlock another £40M in debt funding... and bingo - suddenly we've got enough to become a proper mid tier goldie!The game plan is fairly clear IMO - but it critically depends on the ramp up in production and profitability in 2020. If that doesn't happen (management incompetence, corruption, gold price collapse etc) then our investment will fizzle out. Them's the risks in investing!GLA DYOR etc

[excellance] 09/2/2020 10:23

The 2016 target set for 2019 slipped because of project finance, which they stated they needed at the time, but they now have some project finance to start that ball rolling.

The loan will have required due diligence and a satisfactory business plan which must have convinced the bankers of it being repaid using mine revenues.

I agree that full mine development will require skills and cash we don't currently have, but to raise the cash earlier would have required unreasonable dilution. The board are playing a long game to retain as much value as possible for current holders and could grow this organically themselves, but I do think it is possible that a partner will be brought in to help out and solve the problem of directors owning 2/3 of the share capital, but only when we are ready and at a much higher share price

I think the next year or two will be exceptional. This is now one of my biggest holdings.

[stevea171] 09/2/2020 09:17

February 8. Fred Hickey: “At $1570 gold, miners margins are higher than at any time except Q3 2011. At this price, miners margins are currently higher than average margin in 2011 (gold’s peak), yet the stocks are so much lower. These cos. will be gushing cash flows & raising dividends."

[stevea171] 09/2/2020 08:43

I would be happy with x10 current valuation.

The management here are completely amateur in their production and cost pronouncements.

A 1500 me club runner can say "I want to be world champion" or "I want to break the world record". It is meaningless. The runner would be better advised to set realistic intermediate targets that are achievable and have a training plan and coach in place that would allow him to progress.

This company never meets any st targets but to compensate keeps talking up the future.
If they don't perform now with the $27 million cash then the management in place have seriously failed and should go.

[excellance] 08/2/2020 21:51

8-12-2016

"The total cash cost as reported in the RNS, should be regarded as being the All-in Sustaining Cost, (‘AISC’) of the Company.

The Company’s plan is to move to an AISC cost of approximately US$900 for the year 2018, not 2019 as previously reported. By the end of 2018 the production run rate is expected to be sufficient to reach approximately 100,000 Oz. of gold production per annum. Once the production level of 100,000 Oz is achieved on an annual basis, the AISC is planned to decrease to approximately US$620 for the year 2019.

The anticipated cash costs and production levels are based on the Company’s internal projections and are dependent, in particular, on the Company obtaining sufficient funding on a timely basis to complete the mine expansion."

"...DEPENDENT, IN PARTICULAR, ON THE COMPANY OBTAINING SUFFICIENT FUNDING ON A TIMELY BASIS TO COMPLETE THE MINE EXPANSION"

we have recently raised $27m presumably because we now intend to expand the underground mine. for the last couple of years the open pit has been exploited to exhaustion, and presumably that cash was used also to prepare for mine expansion?

personally i cant see how we get from the current production to the planned 100,000 oz pa, but the money raise seems quite specific, so maybe they have specific kit in mind?

regardless the next year or two should be very exciting as we ramp up production, and if they manage to do this then the market cap should be half a billion quid, and without dilution that would be an share price of 20p.

pie in the sky?

[excellance] 08/2/2020 15:06

dogged with breakdowns they had no choice but to buy new machines. i think maybe onsite maintenance do more harm than good, so it pays to have the professionals keeping the wheels turning.

[tightfist] 08/2/2020 15:00

Thanks for the July 2019 article and context, a good reminder that they already operated some CAT and Sandvik loaders - one wonders about the contract maintenance of the earlier machines? ie Where was the source of unreliability in H1; FYI there is Chinese XCMG loader in the video..Of course, what we really need is news of the next chapter of equipment purchase........ or the master plan!

[excellance] 08/2/2020 08:23

"The Sekisovskoye mine was predominately an open pit operation with a conventional carbon-in leach (CIL) gold recovery plant that has a processing capacity of 0.85 Mt/y. However, in 2016, the open pit ceased to supply ore and all production is now sourced from the Sekisovskoye underground mine. Life of mine gold production is expected to be 1.89 Moz with total associated silver production of 2.72 Moz. On an average annualised basis the gold production is anticipated to be 100,000 oz after 2019."

[highly geared] 07/2/2020 21:50

There’s been a bit posted around risk with regard to 70% held by the family and taking it private.

They’ve had c. 6 years to take it private , they haven’t.
Why would they take it private now... they won’t.
The tradable 30% means a small free float. Any sustainable buying means a rapid share price increase with corresponding market cap. ALTN then becomes far more valuable for the families 70% stake. A much higher price may permit some percentage reduction in exchange for institutional investors to come on board via a placing of the family stock.
The listing no doubt has assisted with the bond financing.
I see the listing as the quickest way for the family to realise value through the small liquidity of the free float.

[excellance] 07/2/2020 20:33

well i'm delighted with today's performance.

the chart shows a gentle ascent, but notably looking at the volume the indicative buy/sell ratio is turning blue, and that indicates investors are buying but selling is limited, hence the gentle ascent obviously.

we did have a bit of pump and dump activity with littlepup before xmas and it looks like he dumped and moved on, and his endless ramping actually put people off buying so good riddance to him!

obviously some on here know the story, or at least a bit of it, but to be clear we are awaiting production numbers that should show a dramatic improvement, and financial numbers that may actually show a profit after loan repayments. Going forward we also look forward to an updated plan for mine development, and some kind of corporate action tat reduces the directors power over us.

here is the recent chart showing volume, indicative buys/sells, and a clear but gentle positive trend.


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