Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[tim000] 16/7/2019 20:47

Wan, I look at companies in terms of their published accounts, and then try to forecast the current year based on what was achieved in the previous year, what targets have been announced and what has happened to the company's product prices, etc. This is a rather sterile way of analysing a company, and doesn't take account of the human factor etc - ultimately it is people that make companies successful and I don't know anything about the people working in and running ALTN. So the figures I concoct are never going to provide all the answers an investor needs. Having said that, I don't know of any company (outside of the blue-sky tech sector) that has as much potential to turn itself around than ALTN has. It's not too fanciful to see the share price being 10x its current level in 12-18 months, if the management achieve their plans and pog stays strong. And if the company then goes on to become a 100k oz per annum producer,....!

[wanobi] 16/7/2019 20:31

many thanx tim, appreciate your insight, cheers Wan :-)

[tim000] 16/7/2019 17:18

With the new equipment acquired recently, the company is targeting underground mining of 40k tonnes per month in H2. The Annual Report also states that mining higher-grade ore bodies 3-8 and 11 should enable it to average 2.41g per tonne this year. That compares with an average grade from mining underground of 1.95g/t in 2018. Hitherto I had made no allowance for these higher-grade targets. However, assuming all of these targets are achieved, it implies gold production of about 15,500 ozs in H2, compared with 15,300 ozs in the whole of 2018. The combination of higher throughput, higher grades, higher prices and a lower KZT exchange rate, which in aggregate have little impact on costs, would result in free cashflow of as much as $11 mn in H2 alone if all targets are achieved. And hence little need for external finance going forward. Of course I'm not saying that the company will achieve all of these targets in H2. But the company has sufficient confidence in its ability to meet them to publish them in its Annual Report. (Companies don't normally publish targets they know are unattainable.) So that gives an idea of what might be achieved, and how much upside there is to the share price.

[wrighty46] 16/7/2019 13:54

Nothing as of yet. But am not to concerned atm. I dont like having to second guess all the time but going on what news has been released to the market the company should be doing pretty well. Problem is it may take months before any of this is confirmed. Finance news could be very close but that has been close for a long time now. However the small loan recently received bodes well imo for unsecured finance to be in place sometime in H2. Again only my opinion but if secured production will ramp up reasonably quickly.

[wanobi] 16/7/2019 05:45

fingers crossed you get some dialogue going with management wrighty, not taken any more myself, so far,,,, cheers Wan :-)

[wrighty46] 15/7/2019 15:54

Also I'm still a buyer here. Bought another chunk today. GLA

[wrighty46] 15/7/2019 15:48

That's if any response is forthcoming. Hopefully get some financing news soon. With that may come a plan of how funds are to be used. GLA

[wanobi] 15/7/2019 12:30

thanx wrighty, appreciate you sharing the responses, cheers wan :-)

[wrighty46] 15/7/2019 12:22

Hard to get a handle on the trading here at the moment. But volume does seem to increasing slowly. Have sent a couple of emails to the company. Will obviously let you all know if I get a reply. GLA

[tightfist] 12/7/2019 17:39

Strange trading patterns these last two days - is someone Bed and ISA'ing (on zero spread?) to rack-up declarable losses now and also ensure prospective layer gains are inside an ISA?

[bo doodak] 11/7/2019 15:05

Not directly comparable, but before and after it delisted, Kemin investor interaction was very poor/non-existent, so not going to hold my breath on that particular front. On the other hand, if we do get informative contact...

[chrisdgb] 11/7/2019 12:58

Times they are a changing.........

[buster2006] 11/7/2019 10:17

R.N.S.
A update is it snowing on MARS !
Great News at last maybe the share price will go up now . G.L.A.

[roguetreader] 11/7/2019 09:52

I think the problem with trades and the share price are that apart from there being a very limited number of Institutional investors here, there is neglible interest from PI's. So, IMO it is probably going to take some solid news on actual production and positive future production forecasts to get the share price solidly set to a higher level and catch the eye of those that are not already vested. That said, I don't see why it isn't possible for the share price to move to around the 1.0 - 1.5p mark on continued positive news flow, should we get it and a maintenance of the gold price at these levels. One, if not the biggest problem affecting the share price over the last couple of years has been the dearth of updates from the BOD and the transparency on progress re the financing.
All IMO
RT

[jc2706] 11/7/2019 09:48

I agree that financing should start to become more readily available as the operations start to look more profitable but I still expect them to go for the $13m that they are discussing with the bank this year even if they have more than anticipated coming in as it will facilitate more progress - there is no lack of things to do, just the lack of funding to do them.

[tim000] 11/7/2019 09:37

The recent AR states that planned capex is circa $10-12 mn in 2019 and $22-26 mn in 2020. The bulk of this is on ore processing facilities, to handle increased throughput as the company targets much higher output. About $2 mn has just been spent on new equipment. I estimate that with a following wind, the company may generate internal cashflow of about $6 mn in H2. Of course, you can't spend the money before its earned, so the company might still want to borrow another $5-10 mn this year. However, it should be possible to demonstrate to lenders that the loans can be readily repaid. So I would expect positive news on financing some time in the next three months. Finally, note that these capex plans were finalised on the assumption of pog at $1250. So the subsequent pog uplift of over $150 should make financing so much easier and cheaper.

[jc2706] 11/7/2019 09:07

I confess that I too sent an email fairly recently primarily focusing on the need for quarterly updates, so maybe the cumulative effect has been felt and this RNS is a result. Whatever the reason, it is good news that there is some positive movement in the operations of the company and one thing that is surely guaranteed (unless they are going to stare lovingly at their new toys) is that more ore is being shifted as a result which should translate into greater production in the not too distant future.

Given the timing of this release and the fact that the final results indicated improved ore delivery "towards the end of Q2 2019" we should see these improvements during the second half of the year. Hopefully Q3 will see an update on the debt financing which should be another catalyst.

[tim000] 11/7/2019 08:45

Me too. But the spread is discouraging trades.

[wrighty46] 11/7/2019 08:44

202k shares is a buy. A little top up. GLA

[wrighty46] 11/7/2019 07:42

I would say if the company start receiving regular emails from more than just a couple of shareholders in my experience one of the bod may start to interact a bit more. What we do know is the resource is there decent grades are there and the company are still targeting 100k ounces per year. A mix of internal cash and financing is their aim. With pog where it is the chances of borrowing money will become easier and hopefully they wont need as much now as this company could start throwing off money in the short term. GLA

[roguetreader] 11/7/2019 07:42

A move in the right direction and positive news. An update on current production would be good, where decent results could seriously move the share price higher IMO.
RT

[tim000] 11/7/2019 07:38

Very true. I was an HMB shareholder that suffered a loss of capital when I capitulated and sold up. However, the macroeconomic background is now incredibly supportive, and the performance of the underground mine should now be very well understood by management. It's not like this is a new greenfield project with all kinds of teething problems. I'm hopeful!!

[sandeels] 11/7/2019 07:32

Tim, good luck with that. Blood from stone thus far.

[tim000] 11/7/2019 07:30

It doesn't say when the machinery was delivered, but I guess fairly recently. (There might be fairly long delivery schedules, as dealers don't stock expensive kit anymore.) So my guess would be that the benefit will be seen in the Q3 numbers. Added to the strong uplift in pog in Q3, we have reasons to be hopeful that H2 is going to perform very profitably. As said above, 2p is a perfectly reasonable target in the short to medium term.

[wrighty46] 11/7/2019 07:30

I agree about the little gem. Very profitable production with gold at 1400+ market cap way to low for a company that could be nudging 20k production this year.