Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[j4yjaybee] 24/12/2018 17:54

Good to see a bit of life here over the past few days. Merry Christmas to all. This time next year HMB, GBGR & ALTN holders we are all going to be rich! Sadly I have been saying that since buying HMB shares! All the best.

[chipperfrd] 24/12/2018 16:35

Happy Christmas all. Best wishes for a healthy and prosperous new year.
Chip

[sandeels] 24/12/2018 15:17

Here's hoping for Chip's long view which seems entirely plausible to me and if it is, just need pog to do it's bit, which seems more likely on a daily basis atm.
Happy Xmas to all (very) long-suffering ALTN PIs!

[bo doodak] 24/12/2018 14:22

Blackwill were to all intents and purposes a related party so I don't think we should read too much into them being treated fairly.

The US sanction angle and long view are good positive scenarios but does the company intend doing the honourable thing by all shareholders, hope so. Re Kemin, they were a bit disingenuous presenting lack of time as being the reason for delisting, so why say that, should've kept to real reasons.

[roguetreader] 23/12/2018 16:43

Chip

Thanks for the informative posts.

You may be correct re the financing, but IMO I think them playing the long view is probably a more likely scenario. My interpretation of the 'long view', is that with recent relative weakness in gold prices and the mine now near break even, they are in no rush to take on more debt at (what they may perceive) onerous costs or risking additional capital of their own, until the gold price trend is clearer. So, they may be waiting for a strengthening gold price to offset those risks and get the best possible terms. As far as delisting is concerned I certainly hope they do not!! and also hope if the worst case scenario is that they do, that they treat the shareholders as well as they treated Blackwill. This has been a frustrating share to hold for the last couple of years, but I think the next six months could at last be interesting.

RT

[sandeels] 23/12/2018 14:57

Interesting posts, thanks all.
Frustrating indeed.

[chipperfrd] 23/12/2018 12:18

Regarding the much delayed financing, I cannot help thinking that the problem with Freedom Finance might well be down to US sanctions inhibiting banks lending to countries who are de-dollarizing. Kazakhstan publicly stated that was what they planned to do some time ago. Maybe it has had something to do with the problem - and possibly any other Western financial outfit that does not want to get on the wrong side of the US.

I am probably wrong, but it does rather rhyme with what goes on in much of the world these days unfortunately.

Chip

[chipperfrd] 23/12/2018 12:03

The Blackwill Trade purchase on the 17th Jan 2018 was also at 3p/share (200% premium!) for a total of £3.53m. So AR were being extremely fair with them as well as with their own convertible bond at 3p. I also believe that the 3p limit expires after 12 months.

However, there is still a proportion of the convertible loan outstanding. It remains to be seen how AR will deal with that. If it were to be converted into shares at 3p again then that would be a very clear positive signal to the market. But, of course, they might require cash payment from the Altyn. We will have to see.

The situation with Kemin is different. Their Nomad resigned at short notice and KEM elected to delist. Probably a good cost saving decision as they are purely an exploration outfit with extremely large Tungsten and Moly prospects (previously GMA). They are many years from production (if at all) and would require very significant capex to develop the first of their projects. Most likely (IMO) that they will either sell or JV to a big outfit (Chinese?). Chances are that they will benefit more by just leaving it all in the ground until the right offer comes along.

Under the Russian classification system they have 1,522Mt ore containing c. 1,068Kt of Moly and 608Kt of Tungsten. The last time I ran a value check on all that at current prices it was very mouth-watering (over US$20B) - but their PFS indicated a required Capex of c. US$267m!!. Hence why a large operator is necessary to get it all started.

Both ALTN and KEM have not been promotional in the least - in fact the opposite! So perhaps they are taking a very long view on both these companies.

ALTN (according to the Deloitte CPR) have a Probable Reserve of 2.268Moz (4.09g/t) at Seki out of a total Resource of 5.1Moz (4.72g/t). And the drilling data purchased for the Kara field appears to show a potential 9Moz, although the long-awaited CPR for that project needs to confirm at least something at that project, although it is clear that the market puts no value on it at all.

Because of the extremely slow progress on all these projects and the lack of PR, coupled with the heavy investment by AR, it does beg the question as to them having a very long view rather than the proto-typical mining company.

But very frustrating for investors - that's for sure!
Chip

[bo doodak] 22/12/2018 23:36

Another Assaubayev vehicle, Kemin Resources(KEM) delisted recently. A very similar situation, so does not exactly inspire confidence.

[bo doodak] 22/12/2018 22:48

RT,
Not entirely sure on this point, so would welcome clarity as well, but I think that the 3p limit might expire a year after the last transaction at that price (23/1/18)

[vish65] 22/12/2018 16:09

Thanks to Chip for that breakdown.

On the face of it another 12 months wasted or treading water at best. Time for management to be held to account but when they own 70 % there in lies the problem.. Public communication is zero and yet the vast majority of shareholders know exactly what is going on !

[roguetreader] 22/12/2018 15:28

Chip/ Mattjos / et al

There lies the conundrum IMO.

AR have to date have put up £48.3M for their 69.8%.

In February they initially agreed funding of an additional $15M from Freedom Finance for the expansion of production by purchasing additional underground equipment needed for that expansion.

In the April statement the $15M funding position was muddied with them saying that the funding was being reviewed with two potential providers, but was as a result being delayed.

In the August Half Year statement They revert to there being a delay due to Freedom Finance being unable to provide funds in the 'required timeframes' and the fact they were now looking at other options.

Overall, IMO the comms around funding have been as clear as mud. Given AR have laid out $48.3M already, I would have thought funding an additional $15M should not be this drawn out or difficult.

I remain a holder as per previous post, but at current prices this is priced for a bust. The question is whether at this point in time this is because the market hates junior gold stocks with extremely poor marketing capabilities that are based in one of the 'STANs' OR are AR aiming to delist ALTN and then get the assets on the cheap at the expense of the 30.2% of shareholders? I'm Not sufficiently knowledgeable about how or if they could achieve the latter, but my simplistic understanding is that if they were to go down the delist route at this point in time they would have to offer the 30% of shareholders a minimum of 3p per share (happy to be corrected from anyone more informed).

I'm still optimistic that eventually this will come good, but IMO definitely v high risk with potential high reward.

RT

[chipperfrd] 22/12/2018 12:48

Mattjos,

Give or take, it consists of the following:

Initial offer for up to 60% of the Hambledon shares in the partial T/O ~ £12m

Conversion of loan notes used to purchase Karasuyskoye Ore Fields ~ £17.25m

Purchase of 358m shares in placing @ 2.175p ~ £7.79m

Purchase of Blackwill Trade shares @ 3p ~ £3.53m

Conversion of Loan Bond ~ US$10m ~ £7.69m

So African Resources have laid out c. £48.3m for their 69.8% of the company.

Current Mkt Cap £11.6m.

Very significant 'skin in the game' and very poor return so far!!

Happy Christmas
Chip

[jerrypike] 22/12/2018 07:54

mattjos,
1.A multiple of the market cap.DYOR.
2.They are trying to get funding-been trying for the last 24 months as per a few recent rns-you have ask your self why they cant get it.
3.They have contained the overheads quite successfully recently.Heavy volume yesterday from around 4pm-just before a long along holiday-with the share price ticking down-never a good sign.Wouldnt be suprised to see them delist/join jp jenkins.
JP

[mattjos] 21/12/2018 20:06

Research started here this week. A couple of questions please, if I may?How much have African Resources put in here for their 67% stake please?Why, seemingly on the verge of getting properly going, is the whole thing just dribbling along?With ownership so concentrated into one party & over 2Bn shares in issue already ... why are they even bothering with an LSE listing? Tia

[roguetreader] 21/12/2018 17:05

Burst of Off-Book and Algo trading here after months of very low trading volumes. Have no idea if this has any meaning one way or the other, but interesting in the fact that 'something' is happening.

[jc2706] 19/12/2018 13:57

This continues to look technically very poor. However, whilst the share price gets hammered through lack of funding, the operation is actually pretty undervalued even without it. If the company mines at a rate of 30-35k tonnes per month (rather than the 25k tonnes achieved in H1) then there will be a material uplift in production. Add in the fact that they are targeting a zone with 20% better grades than achieved in H1 and H2 production should comfortably exceed H1. Considering that H1 was profitable and significantly cash generative even at these low levels of production and the market capitalisation looks more and more attractive.

On the flip side, it needs to be given the ownership structure so it may well continue in its downtrend until such time as transformational news lands (funding or takeover seem most likely options).

[chipperfrd] 05/12/2018 15:09

I'm afraid so!!

[chrisdgb] 05/12/2018 10:05

tumbleweed.......................

[chrisdgb] 14/11/2018 13:34

So, in previous years we have had various announcements in mid to late November, let us hope it is the case again this year with a decent financing or 2p takeover...anything please........!!!!

[chrisdgb] 26/10/2018 14:41

At least Gold is having a good time.......

[bo doodak] 16/10/2018 16:19

Vish,

I'd written these off as held some for what seems a lifetime, but at this level, and now with gold seemingly, but not confirmed as yet, about to go higher I've added a few more. The risk/reward IMO is now well worth a small punt.

But there's no way this stock could legitimately be classed as an investable proposition right now.

Its a strange world though and I've had experience before of a donkey from years ago turning into one of most rewarding 'investments'!

zzz time again

[vish65] 16/10/2018 14:52

Bo , that was my thought aswell. Waiting for some US or dollar collapse and dragging it out until that happens. To the benefit then of gold producers. As an existing producer with wealthy owners and infrastructure already in place how can this take so long ?

The silence is deafening

[bo doodak] 16/10/2018 13:03

My faint hope is that the owners are deliberately waiting for the gold price to improve a bit, or something we are unaware of re Karasuyskoye is happening in the background, JV/sale, or more likely some political/gvt problem. I can't believe they can't get finance.

My fear is they intend going private shortly. If so, it will probably happen soon.

[its a worry] 16/10/2018 11:53

I thought the ocaissional reports seemed fairly positive , but the share price is a complete failure . . been in since Hambledons , no point in selling now . . . just kind of waiting for it to crash and burn . . so way beyond frustration . . don't really get it , because if the reports are true , then they are making progress . . reckon its a bunch of cowboys digging for gold , keeping share holders happy is not exactly a top priority . . lol . .