Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[buster2006] 05/7/2019 21:50

The trouble with them is there,s nothing going forward to get new investors in that is annoying for us who invested longterm for the growth of the company . They should be informing us new equipment on site and achieving whats expected and not informing us 6 months later of another balls up as so far its been 10 years of . G.L.A you will need a tin hat with this one .

[wrighty46] 05/7/2019 14:16

That was about the figures I came too. If they do deliver then the share price will respond accordingly. 2p+ is easily achievable for starters. However we may not find out for quite some time unless they met their own targets and the extra throughput started at least beginning of june with the possibility of of a step up in grade. I will be buying any dips if this returns to 0.4 or maybe lower if news isn't forthcoming anytime soon. GLA

[tim000] 05/7/2019 13:48

I don't think that's correct anymore. It may be that what the management claim and what they actually achieve vary considerably, to the downside. But based upon what they say (eg G&A for 2018 included $2 mn of exceptional costs), and the level of throughput they are targeting given existing plant and machinery, the business could be highly profitable and cash generative in the second half of 2019. The depreciation of the Tenge, and the appreciation of gold, has potentially transformed the profitability of the business already - provided the management can deliver their targets of 35-40k pm throughput etc. 20k ozs production is not impossible this year. That's income of circa $27-28 mn. Total costs should be of the order of $20 mn. For a business with such a low mkt cap and enormous gold reserves, cashflow of that scale will be transformational. But obviously it requires management to deliver on operations.

[tim000] 05/7/2019 09:50

I've emailed the company about your suggestion buster, I'll let this board know if there is any reply.

[tim000] 04/7/2019 18:30

I agree that they could do more in the way of regular updates, especially summarising quarterly KPIs such as production. (Up until now, they haven't had much positive news to highlight, as you know.) The production/sales numbers will be known within a couple of weeks of each end-quarter, and I don't see why they couldn't be announced. Have you tried emailing the company?

[buster2006] 04/7/2019 11:01

what we need is update ARE THE NEW EQUIPMENT IN PLACE .
its a disgrace the directors do not update ive been in this share since 2007 and not made a bean just keeping for hope but annoyed as this could be great .

[chrisdgb] 04/7/2019 08:07

These historic low interest rates are seriously bullish for gold and hope it puts the company in a great place for long term recovery........

[wanobi] 03/7/2019 12:56

thanx for posting that here ra1, cheers Wan :-)

[jc2706] 03/7/2019 11:01

GGP has been a hyped up stock for a few years now. It was initiated by a pump and dump crew (the main protagonist of which has long since sold out) based on assets that were, at best, dubious. However, some of the assets that have been acquired since are at least interesting and the sort of intercepts that they have recently produced are excellent even if they are very deep. These stimulated an agreement with a major that valued the project quite highly. Consider that their assets are also based in Australia and, hence, considered to be less geopolitically 'challenged'.

I do, however, believe that the current market capitalisation takes this into account and there needs to be something exceptional to move it forward significantly. It is certainly not a value play within the gold sector. A comparison here throws that into stark relief but compare it to SHG as well which is producing over 80k oz a year and has a similar market capitalisation to GGP.

[tim000] 03/7/2019 07:28

The current pog measured in KZT is 25% above the 2018 average. By contrast, the ALTN management has budgeted for the KZT pog to be fairly flat this year, and has planned accordingly (ie reduced overheads etc to remain cashflow positive). If the price of one's product rises 25% with no offsetting increase in the cost-base of the business, one can imagine how transformational that is. As I've said before, it only requires the business to broadly achieve its stated targets for this year for its profits and share price to rise substantially.

[tim000] 29/6/2019 21:27

I think one of the triggers for the recent rise in pog is the perceived outlook for US interest rates, which are no longer expected to increase but rather to be reduced over the rest of 2019 and in 2020. Lower interest rates are good for gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest bearing asset. There is little doubt that the global economy is slowing, and interest rates across the West will be easing over the next year or so. That will result in further asset price inflation and more debt expansion. While personally not a "gold bug", gold does currently look to be a safe-haven asset and I agree with researchanalyst that its price is probably heading upward. Furthermore, Brexit on 31st October is likely to be associated with a decline in £ against the $, thereby increasing the £ price of gold, and hence the £ profits of gold producers such as ALTN. So I'm expecting a strong recovery in the ALTN share price over the rest of 2019.

[sandeels] 29/6/2019 19:41

Welcome back Dofmeister!

[tim000] 29/6/2019 12:50

Agree with your point about execution risk. But on the plus side, execution has been constrained by a lack of investment in additional kit. That is now being addressed. Higher throughput automatically increases output, it shouldn't take a genius management and workforce to achieve that.

[jc2706] 29/6/2019 12:13

Agreed with all of the above - even without the funding there is potential here to substantially increase revenue on the back of increased production (through greater throughput and higher grade) and lower unit costs (through higher production numbers and reduced exchange rates). This is probably the most highly geared play on the market to the gold price. Financing would make this doubly the case and I wouldn't be too concerned about high interest rates - they will be high given their reluctance to secure the loans. But financing would improve production numbers by 50-70% and the impact on the bottom line would be enormous. Even more so if the gold price continues to rise.

However, a word of caution. Great potential reward often comes with great risk and that remains the case here. There is always the cautionary aspect of the major shareholder's holding and what their intentions are, although they have had ample opportunity to take this out for a song. But for me the greater risk is still execution. The company has promised much in the past and delivered little and we need evidence that this is now being achieved. Start delivering on the production side and this will fly on the back of strong gold. Get the financing in and it will add fuel to the fire. Fail to deliver on these things and it is likely to underperform other gold miners until it shows it can deliver.

By the way, good to see some old holders coming back in. I have increased more holding substantially in the last few weeks and will continue to look for opportunities to add.

[tim000] 29/6/2019 10:03

With the new LHD delivered (hopefully) in May, the company is targeting 40k t pm processing in H2, compared with an average of under 30k t pm in 2018. So more than a 33% uplift. Against the background of a strong pog and a weak Tenge, if the company can execute on its plans then 2019 is going to be a transformational year. If they do meet targets, then eps should easily exceed 0.1p this year, and cashflow should be substantial. Not enough to finance their planned capex over the next two years (which is deemed necessary to raise production to 100k ozs pa in the medium term), but nonetheless would assist with raising bank finance at an affordable cost. Personally, I wouldn't recommend them raising bank finance at exorbitant rates, that would be too risky. Better in my view to publish good results in August, and then renegotiate with the banks.

[stockknobjockeyvanbookstino] 29/6/2019 08:29

Was invested here years ago, posting as Dofmeister. Met previous MD's Nick Bridgen & Tim Daffern. Sold out when African Resources moved in at 3p. Bought back 4.25m shares in last couple of weeks for all reasons mentioned. Big risk/reward though.

[tim000] 28/6/2019 19:48

As a one-time HMB shareholder I've been following ALTN for many years, and purchased a few million shares this week.

Lots of good reasons have already been highlighted here why ALTN looks cheap. I'm going to highlight a few more, based on the operational side.

First, the KAZ Tenge has depreciated 10% against the US $ in 2019 H1 relative to the 2018 average. That is going to reduce the $ value of the (local currency) cost of sales and G&A by about $2.25 mn pa.
Second, the $9.7 mn debt conversion into equity last year should reduce finance costs.
Third, the company believes grades are going to increase this year. Notwithstanding the recent investment in new equipment, if it can repeat the grades achieved in 2017 and the tonnage mined in 2018, it should be able to produce circa 17500 ozs in 2019 as a whole, compared with 15k ozs last year (with upside given the new equipment).
Fourth, average gold prices in 2019 H1 have risen 3% over the 2018 average and currently are 11% higher.
My best guess is that the company will have been profitable in 2019 H1, following substantial losses in 2018. If that is the case, there are further grounds to believe the share price is due a substantial rerating, even at current gold prices.

[roguetreader] 28/6/2019 17:25

Jerrypike said he might be going......

[jc2706] 28/6/2019 17:04

Nope and there hasn't been a lot of publicity about it (like a Chairman's statement). I suppose that we shouldn't expect anything else really given the paucity of communication the company has given out for a long time.

[chrisdgb] 28/6/2019 13:11

Anybody go to the AGM?????????

[jc2706] 28/6/2019 11:49

Well, we will need evidence of that of course as this has been stated many times in the past without actually materializing. Given the fact that they have bought the equipment this time around, I have somewhat more confidence that this will be the case this time around but I suspect that the market will want to see the evidence before making a decisive move higher.