Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 01/5/2019 13:34

I agree with comments by earlier posters.

Poor performance in the 2nd half has reversed the small positive NPAT at the interims.

Current liabilities did reduce significantly (by $5.753m) in 2H but total liabilities moved a bit higher (by $1.423m).

Debt is down $3.244m from the interims, investment cashflow reduced by $1.553m and finance cashflow also reduced a bit to $0.559m - so they are running on a shoestring!

The notes on Kara were encouraging, but why has there been no reporting of drilling data and why no RNS about the PFS which apparently occurred during 2018. This company take non-reporting to beyond anything I have ever seen in the mining space. Promotional they are definitely NOT!!

The majority shareholder has put significant cash into this venture but clearly wish to limit further outlays whilst accepting the consequential loss of production and potential profit until debt becomes available.

Arguably the longer term could well be very profitable IF Seki production can eventually be raised to target levels and the Kara ore fields can also be brought into production. On current evidence the majority shareholder does appear content to play the long game and might well take the company private. Surely the London listing, auditors, legal, broker/advisor, et al costs are not serving them well and would constitute a significant cost saving.

[roguetreader] 01/5/2019 13:06

I think curates egg has already been a term used here in the past, where it still applies here in spades. The current share price IMO is priced as a 99% probability of a bust, where I just don't see it. The Assaubayevs take the company private at extreme knock down price on the other hand must be strong possibility. The hope for shareholders is that they are giving a new meaning to "slow burner' and things will come good (or at worst improve) this year (Blind optimism of a Mug Punter? or Patience - take your pick).

Performance in 2018 financials deteriorated compared to 2017, which from a shareholders perspective was a negative double whammy as the company were targeting 2018 expectations of significant improvements in 2018 through the capital investment that has yet to materialise, where this combined with the negative impact of the one off costs in 2018 has significantly impacted the bottom line. Operational performance was largely unchanged with Mining slightly down and Milling slightly up, but grade lower and overall Oz slightly down.

2019 targets mimic this time last year, more jam tomorrow if you are being cynical (realistic?)as the promise of a move towards 40K per month mine production and better grades in the short term with long term finance to be concluded later in the year is dangled in front of the shareholder.

Conclusion for me is the share is a hold as my outlook has always been long-term and selling now would almost be pointless at these prices. IMO the likely worst case scenario is a take out by the Assaubayevs at a higher share price than 0.39p, but a complete bust is a possibility. The question is whether this is a gift horse and top up or to sit and wait. I suspect it will be a long wait given the history.

[sloppyg] 01/5/2019 11:27

Comments above have said it all.

In some ways it is perversely reassuring that still spending what limited funds they have on Kara explo as it at least points to the long game here; perhaps wishful thinking !

In addition major shareholder still putting their hands in their pockets with a continued commitment to do so.

Admittedly it gives a new meaning to "slow burner" but i do wonder whether will look back on 0.39 to add today as looking a gift horse in the mouth....

[jc2706] 01/5/2019 10:25

Agreed. A cautious approach is required which is why I posted "Execution is obviously the key point so worth watching out for any news releases".

I am actually optimistic that there is the prospect of some increase in production this year on the back of the existing equipment purchase. The processing plant has a capacity far higher than the current operation so any equipment that can increase the throughput will have a disproportionate affect on the economics.

[vish65] 01/5/2019 09:56

So fundamentally nothing has changed. Great potential but progress still extremely slow and doubts still remain on funding.

Yes , 2019 looks better .But the same could be said for 2018, 2017 ....

Company has yet to deliver on expansion and better financials so the market is pricing that in.

[jc2706] 01/5/2019 08:29

If they achieve financing then this provides a route to considerably higher prices as the production target is ultimately 100k+ oz. They run a decently tight ship so this production volume will translate into very significant profits given decent support from the gold price. To put that into context, I would rate this asset producing at that level more highly than AAZ.

A long way to go to get there and plenty of execution risk but it does indicate the sort of levels that can ultimately be targeted.

[chrisdgb] 01/5/2019 08:11

Actually reads incredibly well.....over 1p on financing conclusion.........

[jc2706] 01/5/2019 07:41

Well, 7am the next day is acceptable!

Not great production but read on and it gets a little more promising with the addition of the dumper, etc. With a route to 40k tonnes per month and an anticipated rise in grade to 2.4g/t, these should translate to a run rate that is about 60-70% higher than current. Execution is obviously the key point so worth watching out for any news releases (which, given the history, is likely to be either a funding update or the interims).

[sandeels] 30/4/2019 21:29

Or not... as the case may be!

[roguetreader] 30/4/2019 21:19

I stand corrected :)

It will be interesting to see when they do actually produce them.

[jc2706] 30/4/2019 16:55

Actually, no. The Final results have to be delivered within 6 months of the year end. In this case that would be the end of June. It is just historically they have produced them by the end of April.

[roguetreader] 30/4/2019 13:15

Buoycat, the managements total lack of communication is a primary reason why the share price is where it is. However as JC2706 alludes above, even they have to publish their annual results, where I believe the drop dead date is COP today!

[buoycat] 30/4/2019 11:24

I was looking at the website yesterday. Worryingly it seems out of date with little activity since 2016.

[jc2706] 30/4/2019 07:25

Looking at their past RNSs (and it doesn't take long to go way back considering hey rarely release one), they have a tendency to release news late in the day, sometimes after close but I do expect it today.

[wrighty46] 29/4/2019 14:23

Well hoping for news tomorrow, results and any kind of update so we may get an idea of where we are.

[jc2706] 24/4/2019 12:00

Should be. It is a bit difficult for them to stop communicating them along with everything else.

[chrisdgb] 24/4/2019 10:04

results next week??

[chrisdgb] 23/4/2019 08:43

Wow, where is this from...??

[wrighty46] 29/3/2019 17:02

Joined you all today on the dip. Not to bigger holding as of yet but looking to accumulate if funding news is positive.

[roguetreader] 19/3/2019 17:19

This is one weird management team.

The last meaningful update to shareholders was the half-year report (31/08/18). We now get at least some good news re the partial funding in today's RNS, with the additional rider that the full funding needed is still being pursued. No mention of how progress is going with the mine re production numbers etc, even although we have had six clear months since the last update to shareholders.

I have to admit I have absolutely no clue as to the management's modus operanda re Shareholders, but my assumption is that given the abysmal share price performance they are past caring about them in the short-term. It will be interesting to see if and how management attitude changes should they get necessary funding, the Mine starts to produce profitably and ALtyn starts to look like a real mining company. I remain hopefully optimistic but won't be investing any more funds here until there is some clarity.
RT

[sloppyg] 19/3/2019 16:30

Well the good news is we are still alive with all to play for and AFR would not be throwing good money after bad. Additionally dilution has been avoided to date.

The funding gap however is still sizeable and given how long it has taken to raise 2m USD to effectively keep things ticking over it is slightly concerning.

In last years AR in April 18 the company stated it required USD 30-35m from external sources to cover 2018-2020. We had the Freedom finance 5 yr non-convertible loan of 15m USD but that money clearly did not materialise.

Consequently we have not really made a dent in the 30-35m USD requirement and that is still presuming that a further c.15m USD can be generated from ops which i guess will be a challenge.

Instincts are this will continue to remain the slowest of burners as the funding gap is not insignificant in the context of time taken to raise 2m USD.

However we are still in the game !

[jc2706] 19/3/2019 15:40

Of course, there are probably a load of stale bulls who will offload their shares into any rise so this may well take a significant increase in volume to perk up.