Altus Strategies Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 05/2/2022 10:18

Press releases and news 20 Jan 2022

Alstom’s orders and sales for the first nine months of 2021/22


9-month order intake at €14.3 billion, up 47 percent vs. last year’s proforma, with strong €4.6 billion order intake in Q3, and a sustained backlog at €77.8 billion

9-month sales at €11.4 billion, up 11 percent vs. last year’s proforma, in line with announced growth trajectory. Solid sales of €3.9 billion in Q3

Full year outlook and mid-term 2024/25 objectives confirmed

20 January 2022 – Over the third quarter 2021/22 (from 1 October to 31 December 2021), Alstom booked €4.6 billion of orders. The Group’s sales reached €3.9 billion.

For the first nine months of 2021/22 (from 1 April to 31 December 2021), Alstom’s order intake reached €14.3 billion. The Group’s sales reached €11.4 billion in line with targeted trajectory.

The backlog, on 31 December 2021, reached €77.8 billion and provides strong visibility on future sales.

[waldron] 05/2/2022 10:15

Outlook for fiscal year 2021/22

As the basis for its 2021/22 outlook, the Group assumes neither further disruptions to the world economy, nor significant supply-chain shortages, that would materially impact the Group’s ability to deliver products and services.

Book-to-bill ratio above 1 on the back of a very good visibility on the short-term pipeline

Sales progression in H2 vs H1 2021/22 as a result of production ramp-up and stabilization efforts

Progressive recovery of aEBIT

Free Cash Flow generation as of H2 2021/22 and onwards

Mid-term financial trajectory and objectives

The outlook given in connection with the Capital Markets Day held on 6 July 2021 is confirmed

Sales: Between 2020/21 (proforma sales of €14 billion) – and 2024/25, Alstom is aiming at sales Compound Annual Growth Rate over 5% supported by strong market momentum and unparalleled €78 billion backlog as of 31 December 2021, securing ca. €30 billion of sales over the next three years. Rolling stock should grow above market rate, Services at solid mid-single digit path and Signalling at high single digit path.

Profitability: The adjusted EBIT margin should reach between 8% and 10% from 2024/25 onwards, benefiting from operational excellence initiatives, the completion of the challenging projects in backlog while synergies are expected to deliver €400 million run rate between 2024/25 and 2025/26.

Free Cash Flow: From 2024/25 onwards, the conversion from Adjusted net income to Free Cash Flow should be over 80%[5] driven by mid-term stability of working capital, stabilisation of CAPEX to around 2% of sales, and cash focus initiatives, while benefiting from volume and synergies take up.

Alstom will maintain its disciplined capital allocation focusing on maintaining its investment grade profile while keeping flexibility and ability to pursue growth opportunities through focused bolt-on M&A.

Alstom is committed to delivering sustained shareholder returns with a dividend pay-out ratio[6] of between 25% and 35%[7]

[waldron] 05/2/2022 10:02

As always time will tell but as far as i can see things seem to be moving forward albeit it slowly

I guess we have to await May Reporting and Outlook



11 May 2022 07:30 (CEST)
Financial results
FY 2021/22 - Full year results

Lets hope clarification is available sooner

[pendragon2] 05/2/2022 08:08

Alp/GGL - Perhaps the root of the issue is with the EU Commission's divestment proposals following the amalgamation with Bombardier.

One suitor already pulled out and I wonder if CAF are losing their appetite for the deal, or are questioning its value since the Austrians cancelled an order last year.

The EU have published this text which is full of holes, confidential annexes, lack of figures etc, but the main divestments can be seen in Schedule 2 after page 321, and Schedule 3 page 332 and the limited extent of those transfers catches the eye.



What would transpire if the deal fails?

[grupo guitarlumber] 05/2/2022 02:50

Analysis
Alstom shares whipsaw after mixed quarterly update

Consensus

Mean consensus OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts 19

Last Close Price 27,09 €

Average target price 41,86 €
Spread / Average Target 54,5%

High Price Target 50,00 €
Spread / Highest target 84,6%

Low Price Target 25,00 €

[grupo guitarlumber] 05/2/2022 02:46

STILL NO REASON APART FROM CHART INFO TO EXPLAIN THE FUNDAMENTAL REASON FOR THE share price DECLINE

Perhaps can stomach mention of the 26.04 euros support but certainly not 23.10 euros

Nor 25.44 euros

[grupo guitarlumber] 05/2/2022 02:37

TRANSLATION

MEDIUM-TERM CONTEXT

The trend is bearish. The movement continues.

The next target is €26.10, then €23.10. The crossing of €43.60 would call into question the continuation of the decline.

SHORT-TERM FORECAST

The underlying trend is clearly downward. The movement continues.

The next target is €27.81, then €26.04. The crossing of € 34.50 would call into question the continuation of the decline.

[grupo guitarlumber] 05/2/2022 02:34

With all the recent hordes of good news, i find myself totally bamboozled by the current fall in share price

[grupo guitarlumber] 05/2/2022 02:30

consortium, formed by the Spanish-Israeli duo (CAF and Shafir)Lost out as did CRRC

The big loser of this tender is the world leader in the CRRC sector (China Railway Construction Corp.) associated with other Israeli partners (Shikoun-Binoui and Egued) and the French Thales.

The Green Line will develop 39 km and 63 stops, including 4 underground, and connect Tel Aviv to several neighboring cities, north and south. In principle, commissioning is scheduled for 2027.


A massive project of 4.8 billion euros over 25 years (5 years of construction and 20 years of maintenance), particularly important for Alstom, because it involves all its areas of expertise, from rolling stock to signalling and cybersecurity, a sensitive subject in the country.

[grupo guitarlumber] 05/2/2022 02:15

EDF's board of directors is expected to approve on Monday the purchase of General Electric's nuclear activities for $273 million, Les Echos reported on Friday. These activities were sold in 2015 by Alstom to the American conglomerate, when Emmanuel Macron was Minister of the Economy. Now president, this return to the French fold must be part of his plan for nuclear power, which will be detailed next week.

[waldron] 04/2/2022 17:23

[France] ALSTOM (ALO)

Real-time Quote. Real-time Euronext Paris - 02/04 04:35:27 pm

27.09 EUR -4.95%

Still none the wiser as to reason for sell off

[pendragon2] 04/2/2022 15:21

buffer solutions

[waldron] 04/2/2022 14:59

aye the key wordle

[pendragon2] 04/2/2022 14:56

seems oversold - me back in, modestly.

[waldron] 04/2/2022 14:50

Alstom
27.11 -4.88%

[maywillow] 04/2/2022 13:19

Invest Securities reaffirms its 'buy' opinion on Alstom with a revised price target of 42.2 to 41.5 euros, after a quarterly publication that saw the transport equipment manufacturer maintain its positive FCF guidance in the second half of the year, without wanting to specify a figure.

"This caution has worried some analysts and investors and explains the slippage in prices well below 30 euros. Added this Friday a broker publication (source Bloomberg) which degrades its OC and its opinion, "notes the analyst.

"This amplifies the decline in Alstom shares that continued yesterday. The guidance remains unchanged two months before the annual close," continues Invest Securities, which nevertheless considers that the sanction seems excessive and that the weakness of the price offers a good entry point.

[maywillow] 04/2/2022 13:00

certainly seems to be surely unfairly undervalued and perhaps a rare buying opportunity


shame it does not pay a decent divi or i might consider taking the plunge

[pendragon2] 04/2/2022 12:39

4/2/22 Alstom
27.40

Support gone? Lowest since 2017.

[waldron] 02/2/2022 22:40

Alstom
28.88 +2.19%

[sarkasm] 02/2/2022 21:57

Alstom to supply Belgium's SNCB with up to 50 electric Traxx passenger locomotives
02/02/2022 | 02:01pm GMT


Alstom has signed a framework agreement to deliver up to 50 third-generation electric Traxx locomotives to Belgium's Societe Nationale des Chemins de Fer Belges (SNCB) for use on its passenger services. The first firm order, worth around EUR120 million, covers the design, manufacturing and homologation of 24 locomotives. Deliveries are expected to begin in 2026.

These new locomotives will be used for domestic and cross-border journeys on the electrified networks in Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Germany, including on a number of high-speed lines. They are designed for use with the various electrification[1] systems across the countries and are equipped with an ETCS signalling system, as well as all the required conventional signalling systems[2].

'We would like to thank SNCB for placing its trust in our transport solutions. The Traxx locomotive is the most sustainable mobility solution in its category and can boast proven reliability and an optimised maintenance cycle,' said Bernard Belvaux, Managing Director of Alstom Benelux.

The development of this new generation of locomotives builds on the proven success of the Traxx platform. More than 2,400 units have been sold throughout the world over the last 20 years. They have been approved in 20 countries and cover a total annual distance of more than 300 million kilometres. In the Benelux countries, nearly 280 Traxx locomotives are already in commercial service.

The third generation Traxx locomotive delivers increased operational performance: it runs at 200 km/h, provides increased flexibility and meets the most recent requirements of the TSI security standards. It also comes with a higher energy efficiency and its maintenance intervals have been extended by 33% to improve availability and reduce maintenance burden.

The new Traxx locomotive was designed at Alstom's site in Mannheim and is manufactured at the site of Kassel (Germany). The bogies are provided by the Siegen site (Germany) and the body structures are manufactured in Wroclaw (Poland). Alstom's site at Charleroi will provide the national signalling systems for the four countries and the level 2 ETCS system.

Contact:

Martin Vaujour

Tel: [phone]

[grupo guitarlumber] 01/2/2022 09:07

Alstom : to supply Belgium's SNCB with up to 50 electric Traxx passenger locomotives
02/01/2022 | 07:52am GMT