Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[senor_sensible] 05/9/2014 13:08

Analysis: Andrew Walker, BBC Economics Correspondent

So the ECB is getting back into the business of buying financial assets. No government debt this time, though it's clear that could yet come.

Instead the focus is on assets that bundle up private sector loans.

Does that sound familiar? Yes, it was that kind of stuff that played a central role in the financial crisis, especially mortgage backed securities in the US.

But that market is much less developed in Europe and it could ultimately help the Eurozone deal with another problem: the continued weakness of the banks.

If the market for this type of asset were to expand it would make European business finance a bit more American, with a bigger share of commercial loans coming through the financial markets and less through struggling banks.

Just saying like........

[senor_sensible] 05/9/2014 10:32

Just to note/clarify: Any conversation I have with the company will remain private and anything I write on these boards should not be mistaken for a direct quote from Alph, if anyone wants to discuss any detail with the company I suggest they phone themselves.

[senor_sensible] 05/9/2014 10:23

No, not heard this directly from the company from the company.
It is widely know that Barx are trying to exit the EU market, it is also widely known that Barx have shafted this company over the last couple of years.
it has also been reported that Alph are looking at other finance options
And several other financial companies are investing in this region.
Also, the ABS activity from the ECB will cause a lot of very cheap EU money ($1trllion, is quoted) making it easier for Other financial institutions to free up cash to finance them
If working on a percentages game - it would seem extremely unlikely that Barx would be the company re-financing in 2015.

So in this context, IMO Barx are out of the picture

[oldie11] 05/9/2014 10:04

Senor, would you clarify your "Barx are out of the picture" comment at 1598? Did you hear this from the company?

[senor_sensible] 04/9/2014 20:00

Lol, I am normally out of the way for months on end, but the little boat I live on is in dry dock having a repair done. Don't worry, I will be back on water soon enough and posters here will fear the heart attack got me.

[mgalle] 04/9/2014 19:03

Hi Senor

I hope you are going to ease up before you have a heart attack - Feb 2015 is some time yet. I really don’t care what the share price is currently as long as it has a Hollywood ending.

Don’t you think you should be careful what you say? I am sure you don’t have inside information but from a certain point of view - Ok the board have said publicly they are looking at their options to refinance, so nothing new there.

Hosede comes across in his earlier posts as head shorter but in his most recent posts he says some sensible things (and I suspect he has made a lot of money)

[senor_sensible] 04/9/2014 17:32

Barx are out of the picture, call the company and see what they have today

[hosede] 04/9/2014 16:42

I still have 100k - a fraction of my oiginal holding. The problem is that if interest rates rise and property prices fall (and France is a total shambles) they become rapidly insolvent - as Ben Graham put it - there is no margin of safety,
Edit
In the old days you could trust banks to try and keep businesses afloat - now if RBS is an example they try to close them down and sieze the assets. I'm afraid I don't trust Barx to be any better.

[senor_sensible] 04/9/2014 15:20

It is my Assumption and hope that they are borrowing the 9MIL - And that is just it. - this is excellent news!!!!!!!

How are they able to get 9mil of finance when according to a few posters things are so dire. Blows that scare story right our of the water.

If they can secure new finance on a 5.4% yield the interest rate of that finance must be quite good, after taking into account management fees, etc the interest rate must be below 5% otherwise they would not have been able to go ahead. Deposits in the ECB attract a -0.2% interest rate, so plenty of cheap money becoming increasingly available in the EU. Asset backed debt purchase by the EU will Improve things further

Some peeps are that busy looking for a negative slant they are overlooking the massive positive indicator looking them straight in the face.

But now you have sold out, I wish you all the best where ever you invest. good luck.

[hosede] 04/9/2014 14:12

But they didn't say where the 9 million is coming from - more borrowing and 487m rent is ony 5.4% return! Isn't their avarage around 8%?

[senor_sensible] 04/9/2014 10:59

I don't think anyone claims this is risk free, but the potential upside is not limited to a few percent either. The opportunities offering the biggest upside also have the higher risk associated, same as everything in life.

So good luck where ever you decide to invest in the future now you have no interest in this company.

Barx are a bank (not a property company) trying to divest from Europe, ALPH will finance via another entity either alone or part of a merged group. Look at the news the other day about the company committing to a 9 Million investment to provide new premises with additional rental income for their existing client with an extension to the lease existing lease also, this is not the action of a company about to go into administration or one where there is no finance available.

[hosede] 04/9/2014 10:44

Normal LTVs for finance are ca 60-65%. To get finance at LTV 80% they will have to pay a much higher rate so the margin will be squeezed towards zero. I expect the "refinancing" to turn effectively into an administration with Barclays taking everything. They were stupid to accept the terms of settlement of the currency swap - should have moved into run-off like APT.
You hang on if you want, but I'm not taking the risk - good luck

[senor_sensible] 04/9/2014 06:36

Rentl incom for the 6 months to June = 9.9 mil
Finance for the 6 months to June = 7.7 mil, this includes the higher interest component.

Loss is due to negative property valuation, which is contrary to similar property in the area, so I question the independence of the valuer

This is why tha nav fell

Other items need addressing that are in the control of alph such rental costs and manager fees.

Suggest anyone with any doubt contacts the company.

They have just agreed additional building at 9 mil for one of their tenants and agreed additional rental become of 0.5mil. Not te actions of a company struggling with finance

[hosede] 03/9/2014 16:34

It's not a question of refinancing - it's the massive negative cash flow from this punitive interest rate: why else do you think the NAV fell from 18 to 12 p.
Fortunately got most of mine away around 6p - just 100k left now
Edit - one of my sells is down as a buy

[red army] 03/9/2014 16:10

LOL its been a short since 2005 and you would have made a fortune.

[red army] 03/9/2014 15:54

Fund raising round coming up at 2p???????

[hosede] 03/9/2014 15:54

S-S
Nipped back here to have a look. Not read everything but it seems to me the interest payment of £2.5m pa (10% on the 25m to settle the hedge) is what is reducing the NAV on a daily basis. AND - they are not allowed to repay that money before all the other loans. Absolutely crippling! (Managed to get half my remaining holding away at 3p)

[senor_sensible] 03/9/2014 07:44

Looks like another strong start, let's hope for a repeat of yesterday. Personally would prefer a nice steady climb rather than volatility in the share price that encourages the traders and shorters.

Resistance is rising on this, yesterday it needed to break the 3.25p, today it needs to break 3.458p. if it breaks that the next resistance is the 4 week high at 4.5p then the 13 week high at 5.25p.

From a news and confidence of re-financing the debt in 2015 point of view I would suggest that current status is as good as it has been in the last 13 weeks so no reason this cannot recover to above 5.25p in a fairly short period of time. AL look to be improving their situation which as Mirako suggest is a very good thing for ALPH

imo below 6p the company knows it could be a TO target.

Longer term target is the 52 week high of 9.5p, again at that price there were still lots of uncertainties regarding the hedge and finance in 2015 that have now appear to have been settled

[mirako] 02/9/2014 21:30

The most encouraging thing on Alcatel-Lucent is the recent ratings agency upgrade, rather than the lease extension, but it's still a single-B credit. Better trading from A-L is pretty crucial to ALPH - that office park is a huge part of their NAV and with the current lease it would probably sell at a discount.

[senor_sensible] 02/9/2014 18:08

The additional lettable area will generate an additional EUR487,000 of rental income per year on completion. Yeild is 5.4%

The underlying news is the fact that the company can commit to a 9Million building program, even though the doom and groomers claim they will not be able to finance existing property. Seems to me like the company will have no problems re-financing the debt in 2015

Not bad since the doomsters were claiming last week the company would need massively dilutive share placement just to survive, lol.

Anyone in any doubt, and genuine investor get in touch with the company, loads of decent newsflow around the corner now.

[sleepy] 02/9/2014 16:32

Anyone know how the new rent compares with the old rent?

[senor_sensible] 02/9/2014 14:56

Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 11:32



LONDON (Alliance News) - Alpha Pyrenees Trust Ltd said Tuesday it has signed a new 12-year lease with its existing client Alcatel-Lucent SA, with a minimum fixed term of nine years, for the Villarceaux-Nozay business park in France.





The new lease is an increase of almost five years in fixed-term commitment from the previous lease which had around four years remaining.

Under the agreement Alpha Pyrenees has committed to EUR9 million of staged capital expenditure towards creating a new lettable area and building improvements at the business park. The additional lettable area will generate an additional EUR487,000 of rental income per year on completion.

Alpha Pyrenees said the deal increases the effective weighted average lease length to expiry of its portfolio from 7.8 years as at June 30 to 10.4 years.

Shares in Alpha Pyrenees were trading up 4.0% at 2.99 pence Tuesday morning.

[senor_sensible] 02/9/2014 14:30

Chrisgail, this is excellent news!!

Just as all the doom and groomers infer this has no future and is over burdened with debt the company inform the market that they are growing their portfolio.

They do not do this unless the finance for it is already approved.

Plenty more of the same to Come IMO, this company is not going to wind down its investments it's going to grow them......with a decent yield planned for 10 years....