Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[chrisgail] 02/9/2014 14:18

Very good news, a long term hold for me.

[senor_sensible] 02/9/2014 12:42

And more importantly, they must be confident in re-financing existing debt to be spending 9 Million on building new property. Hopefully back toward its Adjusted nav of 12p+++ per share.

[senor_sensible] 02/9/2014 07:52

looks like it could be another strong opening with a good day to follow, no doubt the usual crew (doom and groomers) will be along to tell us how bad it is LOL

[senor_sensible] 01/9/2014 22:20

Or they could do orderlly wind down and distribute to shareholders, worth about 12p per share in this basis, but worth much more to a fund looking to take advantage of losses on the book, with cash in the bank.

[senor_sensible] 01/9/2014 22:00

Call Kingston, if you are genuine investor he will make time.

IMO Hermes property is possible merger, brings combined ltv below 70% and already ave strong links via bod, etc. plenty of cheap eu moneys sloshing about. Us instis getting in on the action with eu money because they are willing to lend with higher ltvs

Drop was due to currency hedge that was already priced in, cheap at less than 6p IMO. Don't let the doom and groomers get to you. It's not as ad as some would ave you believe IMO.

[blackpoolsteve] 01/9/2014 19:38

You're right SS, all sells today,were in fact buys, as logged onto HL site to check actuals.
We know this company is dire,with II's pulling it lower. Best option would be for another trust to buy it out - have you any indication that Sirius,or anybody else,is interested?

[sleepy] 01/9/2014 19:01

Hansteen results out last week

They appear to have raised 2 large Euro loans recently - one with 55% LTV covenant and the other with 60% covenant

[sleepy] 01/9/2014 18:53

1567 - the link appears to relate to the US

[senor_sensible] 01/9/2014 15:24

looks to me like mostly buys, reported as sells due to published spread

[senor_sensible] 01/9/2014 14:46

Pugugly, if I came to the same conclusions as you did I would seriously consider shorting this, if not already done so :-) however I do not agree with your dire opinion so won't bother shorting myself

hxxp://www.commercialbanc.com/commercial-lending-ratios.html

Up to 90% is possible with 75-80% the norm.

As already suggested, IMO ALPH and all the property, debt and more importantly Cash in bank will be taken over by another trust fund where their LTV ration means they do not have the optimum leverage. TO price in the range 5-12p IMO.

I expect a lot of doom and gloomers to pop up with a bit of positive movement with the share price Quelle Surprise. lol

[senor_sensible] 01/9/2014 14:46

Pugugly, if I came to the same conclusions as you did I would seriously consider shorting this, if not already done so :-) however I do not agree with your dire opinion so won't bother shorting myself

hxxp://www.commercialbanc.com/commercial-lending-ratios.html

Up to 90% is possible with 75-80% the norm.

As already suggested, IMO ALPH and all the property, debt and more importantly Cash in bank will be taken over by another trust fund where their LTV ration means they do not have the optimum leverage. TO price in the range 5-12p IMO.

I expect a lot of doom and gloomers to pop up with a bit of positive movement with the share price Quelle Surprise. lol

[red army] 01/9/2014 13:45

The board needs to implement urgent effective actions and not hope.

[red army] 01/9/2014 13:44

The board needs to implement urgent effective actions and not hope.

[pugugly] 01/9/2014 13:35

Been speaking to an experienced French Banker thsi morning - On domestic French property their current loan to value funding is no more than 60% and with knowledge of the market his opinion was that 70% would be the absolute maximum for commercial property - So OK he may be wrong - the property may be under valued at the moment but prospects (short of some very dilutive vulture funding) Very bad for current shareholders - The prospects do not look too encouraging.

(IMO & dyor)

[martincc] 01/9/2014 13:04

Looks like a buyer has appeared, wins & peel moved up to 2.5p bid @ 12:50
Real bid/offer is very tight spread.
In fact can buy at 2.625p and sell at 2.64p?

[senor_sensible] 29/8/2014 16:17

At this price a takeover is more likely, they could even use a fraction of the cash in alphas bank account to fund it. Sirius could absorb this and still meet an overall ltv lower than 70% and still have several mil cash in the bank to spare. Any ideas on who might have a seat at Sirius top table?

To price above 5p per share maybe even as high as 10p. IMO or in shares in bigger fund. Depends how good a job the Doom and groomers do

[muzerewa] 29/8/2014 14:42

Senor Sensible
"How many shares/% dilution and when do you envisage this happening?"

Honestly I don't know, but something that brings gearing to a more manageable level, eg 70% LTV. When? Presumably after they've concluded that debt financing on reasonable terms is just not viable. Or perhaps it's a reasonable strategy just to drag things as long as possible, in the hope that the investment property market makes a strong recovery during the period before the bank loan matures.

[muzerewa] 29/8/2014 14:25

It's not just my opinion. The Chairman has indicated that consideration is being given among other things to equity refinancing, as well as other "corporate finance solutions", which I imagine means some kind of quasi-equity instrument.

[senor_sensible] 29/8/2014 14:09

potential M&A hxxp://www.sirius-real-estate.com/media/pdf/YE14%20-%20Final.pdf

Links are already there

[senor_sensible] 29/8/2014 11:55

it might be worth reading the articles of association :-) just to work out what the company are empowered to do..

[senor_sensible] 29/8/2014 11:45

Muzerewa, so in your opinion you think the company is going to issue equity and dilute the shares? How many shares/% dilution and when do you envisage this happening?

[muzerewa] 29/8/2014 11:40

The trouble is NAV is on a downward trajectory due to high debt service costs, and other costs including investment management fees. These exceed the company's net rental income. I can't see the scope for debt refinancing except on onerous terms which will only exacerbate the NAV's downward spiral. Some kind of equity dilution seems to be the only hope.

In the circumstances the current share price is unsurprising.