Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[mgalle] 15/3/2014 16:36

I get the impression that some of you are very gleeful when the price falls. This does not seem fit in with the idea you are trying to dump a large holding before 2015. As I said I don't believe that what is said here will affect the share price, selling or buying - will. I think shorting is a legitimate investment technique and shorters are not criminals.

The management at Alph don't seem to be putting any for sale signs up on any of their properties. (Although if they can get the full value of the property, I think they should. Yes, I do agree that Barclays will try and rip them off again, and have suggested a European lender would solve a few problems) Maybe Barclays have not made it clear that they will only now refinance 50%? Maybe some Chinese shadow bankers will bail them out?

Senor-Sensible has explained that this is a highly leveraged investment trust and was so set up to be. The hedge has now ended and the potential of it causing an unlimited loss for Alpha has past.

Wish I had taken advantage of the shenanigans at Volkswagen, though!

[envirovision] 15/3/2014 13:04

It never ceases to amaze me how if there are posters with a less than positive outlook that there is always one or two posters who are happy to wade in on the presumption those in such camp can only but be assumed to be shorting. How very arrogant that can be I feel.

[hosede] 15/3/2014 12:32

Flyfisher
exactly - it is almost certain Alph will have to sell a sigificant portion of its portfolio, and if they don't do it in a controlled and measured way, they will be forced into it under duress and the outcome will be much worse.
mgalle
I don't believe there are any shorters about - the share is far too illiquid. Looking at the trades, I think the shares SS and I sold yesterday make up most of the turnover.

[flyfisher] 15/3/2014 08:07

mgalle, Alph are approaching a deadline for refinancing. Financing for European commercial property portfolios would seem to be available at up to 50% ltv on a whole loan basis and perhaps 60% ltv on a mezzanine basis. How do you propose alph will refinance its much higher leveraged debt position.

[mgalle] 15/3/2014 07:17

I don't really believe that what you say on here really makes much difference to the price especially for something as large as Alpha.

Clearly there are shorters making posts here (based on what could happen in 2015!) and the geo-political outlook in Europe is troubled. (I could be wrong but I think it is unlikely that anything much will come of it.)

I remember when the share price was 30p and the economic climate was very troubled then, so the shareholders have a right to vent their rage. The management really does have to get their act together and the new big buyer may be a catalyst for this.

Clearly the Alpha share price could and should be worth more.

(I Don't think I should say if I am holding or not but if the share price does go done much further than it will become very attractive for me to buy some more. It was very brave of you to get in at 3p. I believe the window for that was one afternoon - at the time I thought it was going lower!)

[senor_sensible] 14/3/2014 18:20

no probs, I was lucky to be buying at the 3p mark and have managed to do ok out of these, still think it will reocver closer to the nav and having HNWI building a stake makes you feel little easier too, however if there is going to be a dip in SP, then it makes sense for me to pull out original stake, with a view to buying back in cheaper in future :-) IMO still being played a little, MMs were absorbing sells for the last few weeks at above mid price making them look like buys, SO Buyer could still be out there, just holding back for the dip.

Still keeping some investment here, and still think well oversold. but might need to get timing right..

[mgalle] 14/3/2014 17:32

Chin up Senor_sensible I don't think its going to be that bad - lots of Jaw,Jaw not war war.

[red army] 14/3/2014 16:03

Managing this portfolio should be a piece of cake - its not rocket science.

[red army] 14/3/2014 15:15

AGM on the 25th April so hopefully serious investors will be there.

[senor_sensible] 14/3/2014 14:58

Alpha large trades Cannot get a quote, but sold original stake just in case the neg sentiment has lasting effect on share price got a feeling of being mugged so left the profits run just to make sure I get upside in case the mugging feeling was correct.

[mgalle] 14/3/2014 14:53

I agree with Murerewa, Alpha has to reduce it costs - preferably with out reducing the service to the clients renting from them.

A bit unfortunate on the timing of the reporting this morning. (If I was a shorter, which I am not then I would be looking at Russian and Polish stocks at the moment. However, if they can get the price down, I will think about buying as I missed the boat last time they did it!)

IERE went up a lot from a very low figure. It is unclear exactly why. One theory is that the company who owns their debt, could not simply get their money and make a quick profit by instantly auctioning all the property. Another reason possibly is that European property came into fashion with US hedge funds.

Ok, Alpha has to go to the banks in 2015. I really don't see the banks walking away but even if the interest rate goes up as long as Alpha can increase the rent to match and the clients can pay then so what. I suspect we will still be in a low interest environment in 2015. Maybe the new big investor with his expert knowledge can change things. The opportunity in 2015 is to get rid of the debt from the old currency hedge or as much of it as possible.

[red army] 14/3/2014 14:38

I am going to write to the board asking what the current arrangements are with respect to the fund management and what the proposed measures might be that are in best interest of shareholders.

[alphahunter] 14/3/2014 14:09

Senior,

"I am only offered NEG trade on large buys...."

In layman's term, how does that translate? :-)

[hosede] 14/3/2014 14:09

SS
The ADVFN trades section isn't showing a single buy, and the adjusted EPS are pathetic - I was expected 1 - 2p. If they can't generate enough cash to repay some of their loans they look dead in the water to me

[senor_sensible] 14/3/2014 12:59

one of them serves on the Board, up for re-election this year. But then only shareholders have a vote :-)
Hosede, IMO the buyer is there but given the share price will probably not be going all in at this price, that said I also sold just short of £5K worth (original investment). Still keeping sizable chunk in here though

[muzerewa] 14/3/2014 12:02

On the subject of the investment manager, any information as to the term of the mandate? The company's 2005 prospectus states that the initial agreement was for an 8 year period counting from November 2005, which suggests that it should have come up for renewal recently. If there is no long term agreement now in place I can see this as making the share more attractive, especially to the likes of Mr. Peskin, who might hope to use their influence to ensure terms are renegotiated (hopefully for the company's benefit).

[hosede] 14/3/2014 11:57

Sorry SS I sold a couple of lots and the price plumetted between them - don't believe there are any significant buyers. Price down on the day now.

[senor_sensible] 14/3/2014 11:32

As I said before open:
"IMO a few small investors will be bailing, the bigger players will be buying. "

it looks like a large buy order on the system, the MMs are mugging the pi's to fill it :-) I am only offered NEG trade on large buys....

[envirovision] 14/3/2014 11:11

I should think he has some skin in the game to get along to some of the bank / board meetings Senior, rather than having bought it for capital appreciation as he clearly from his background he operates in a different fish pond altogether.

That said good luck to you if you think they will survive and thrive and you turn out to be right.

[senor_sensible] 14/3/2014 10:57

Mr Richard Peskin, increased holding in ALPH above 5% Recently



hxxp://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/moversshakers/article1890953.ece
hxxp://www.internosglobal.com/people/richard-peskin/

just saying like,

[hosede] 14/3/2014 09:52

There's plenty of 'em Red!

[red army] 14/3/2014 09:51

I guess the guy buying in recently must be stupid then???

[hosede] 14/3/2014 09:44

A feast for Barclays: always assuming they're still afloat!