Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[senor_sensible] 12/2/2014 15:32

nothing much concerning me ATM, results any time over next 2-4 weeks

[hosede] 06/2/2014 12:52

A bit more movement today - a 750k buy. I was able to sell 50k at 6.25 same price as the buy. decided I had too many

[hosede] 03/2/2014 16:11

I think you're right - crazy decision not to to sell some property while they can. Barclays - assuming is it still solvent - is likely IMO to want A much higher interest rate and then the Co. will have to sell under duress.

[empirestate] 03/2/2014 14:57

think I will wait until this is in the low 4's. there's no support at the moment.

[hosede] 31/1/2014 18:16

'fraid there are no buyers, so every small sell is knocking the share price down

[senor_sensible] 31/1/2014 11:10

70-80% is their target :-)

[sleepy] 30/1/2014 13:44

Isn't there a need to refinance coming up? Banks don't like LTVs much above 50%

[senor_sensible] 30/1/2014 12:35

good time to be topping up, buy on weakbness and hold, we know the NAV will be reported in the 20-24p range when results are out in March, an increase in adjusted NAV is expected and with the hedge settled there might be a mention of return to dividends. All the bad stuff is behind us now IMO

[senor_sensible] 22/1/2014 18:21

Jimmy, I knew what you meant, but like I said, worth looking to the future rather than dwelling on the past.

I too would have rather them state that the drop was due to currency hedge, which has since been settled. this would have been clearer in pointing out the biggest problem is behind them. But when you are given lemons, make lemonade.

This was trading at 13-15p prior to the final drops due to hedge, there have been two years of dividend cash held back and the hedge is now settled so IMO no reason this should not get back towards the 16-18p range, and if the NAV increases and dividend on the horizon when results are anounced we could see 24p-30p before the year is out.

Be carefull not to be spooked by the NAV dropping from its recent value, it is more likely to get towards the adjusted nav and in the 20-24p range. it will be interesting how this will be reported. The most important value will be the adjusted NAV, and if this has gone up by more than 7% we know we are getting out of the woods and we might see some IIs buying back in.

[jimmy12345] 22/1/2014 17:25

Ss i mean the reason it dropped 70 odd % compared to others, the author failed to state that it was the hedge that caused this drop. Very poor reporting

[senor_sensible] 22/1/2014 13:12

probably becasue there is no hedge, it has been settled :-) come march the results will show the new NAV, those who bought on the back of the mail article would be happy, IMO.

if you read the AofIs you will see that company are not empowered to issue shares at below the NAV and since dilution has been the biggest killer of value over the last few years for man other shares it is not the case with Alph. this puts Alph as a better risk punt than many others who could still get diluted. So as long as the share price is lower than the NAV and the nav increasing most of the future has upside and good upsaide at that.

This is a strong buy, put the past behind you or you might miss the future.

[jimmy12345] 22/1/2014 12:41

The guy doing the mail on sunday piece obviously dont know jack about alpha. No mention of the hedge as reason why its falling so much compared to others. Why would you leave that little nugget out?

[senor_sensible] 22/1/2014 11:12

imo, anyone wanting to build a stake should do so in small chunks, the MMs are happy to open this up at a sniff of buying, buying in small chunks allows the impatient to leave in an orderly fashion. IMO in march we will have the catalyst to move this to the next level

[senor_sensible] 22/1/2014 07:22

For those into this sort of thing.
hxxp://www.barchart.com/opinions/stocks/ALPH.LS

Strong buy........... Enjoy

[blackpoolsteve] 21/1/2014 16:10

I still prefer an improving outlook with big discount to NAV ,eg SRE

[senor_sensible] 21/1/2014 13:20

hxxp://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-2536654/Discounts-investment-trusts-record-lows-assess-buying-opportunities.html

[senor_sensible] 21/1/2014 13:19

From Mail on Sunday:

Discount to value: 66 per cent
The Alpha Pyrenees Trust Invests in French and Spanish commercial real estate in the office, industrial, logistics and retail sectors.
The majority of its assets are currently in France.

It has fallen 74 per cent in the past three years, compared with 16 per cent in the Direct Europe Property sector.
This trust has suffered from eurozone problems of the past few years, as reflected in the performance and discount.
An investment in this product is a bold bet on the eurozone and particularly France and Spain

[red army] 21/1/2014 12:11

Still long and initial target 16p

[alphahunter] 21/1/2014 11:07

Thanks ILB.
So we know where the flow is coming from.

[i like beer] 21/1/2014 10:40

There was an article in mail on Sunday about trusts trading on big discount. ALPH was mentioned along with IERE.

[hosede] 21/1/2014 10:15

That's a reasonable assessment Prokatace. The risk is that the financial crisis starts in earnest and there's not a European bank left standing in say three years time - and so no-one left to renew the loans.

[prokartace] 21/1/2014 09:55

We know that this is a big gamble with lots of potential pitfalls, but the potential reward means that you should tuck away a small % of your portfolio in this share. In 5 years time. if it has all gone belly up, you wont miss the money. On the other hand if all goes well in 5 years you could have made 5X your investment. This is how I have treated it. I bought at an all in price of 3.53p and hope I will make 10x this

[senor_sensible] 21/1/2014 09:39

a couple of buys sneaking in under the radar, doesn't take much to tick up, might be about to move on up.......

[senor_sensible] 21/1/2014 09:29

IMO a strong buy and hold, short/mid term targert is 18p and beyond that back towards the 30-60p range in the coming years

[senor_sensible] 21/1/2014 08:50

Nav will drop as a reuslt of the hedge being financd by debt, the previous Adjusted NAV was closer to wher post hedge settlemen NAV will be, therefore somewhere between 20-30p. Splittinghairs but I will get off the fence and put is at 25p.

Therefoe company is trading at approx 25% of it's NAV The rental income covers the debt plus some more, and there was also some cash held back, which IMO will be used to improve the LTV