Falling rates and a ressession would be the worse outcome and a big investor may fear this hence the selling. I added more given the recovery in Europe and would think hope the US bounces back, but also note the bond yields are still elevated and only if those fall would I pivot out of here. We are at the mercy of institutional buying and selling. |
Something nasty in the woodshed, I fer. I have sold at breakeven. |
Anyone know what has caused this crash? |
I think the forecasted decline in USD rates is offset by the larger percentage-rise of EUR despite it being less percentage of book:
Currency | Percentage of Book
USD | 29.69%
EUR | 18.30%
GBP | 12.28%
While predicting currency movements is inherently challenging and often a zero-sum game, I believe the recent decline in forecasted USD yields could reverse if economic conditions strengthen. Last week, higher earners showed signs of weaker, pre-recession-like declines in consumption, which may not persist if the economic outlook improves.
From the trading update. The full-year results statement for 2024 will be published week commencing 17 March 2025.
I note some of the basic websites now show ALPH's P/E to include NTI and reported around 12. |
European rates up dramatically today on military spending announced in Germany. |
Hi felix,
Currently, ALPH is a hidden value stock, you might see the value but others won't. This has been a deliberate policy of the management in the optics they present to investors. The management highlight metrics on the underlying business - that has slowed. Look behind the façade and they are making loads of interest income - but you have to look for it.
Despite the £30m in buy-backs (£10m more in-progress) 23% of the market cap is accounted for by £217m of cash at YE and is rolling-up at c. £6m a month.
I think that investors are starting to see the value. |
RNS came in that JPMorgan Asset Management have been buying shared from an European fund. The JPM UK smaller cap trust always held ALPH. Many other UK small funds do not own it and I believe they are slowly waking up to this stock. Also note the UK, European, Georgian banking and finance stocks are generally up. This is stock to hold for years and it is paying off.... around 30% per year for the past 25 months. |
Does anyone know what's caused this recent sharp rise? I've viewed Alpha as a strong buy for some time on fundamentals alone but I'm unsure what's prompted the market to wake up to this. Is there talk of what they might do with that cash pile worth 15% of the valuation? |
I can't spot these technical indicators but I did see that weekly lows are always going higher for about a year despite the larger steps up and down that indicate someone large selling to another large party. Net there are always buyers. |
Yep through the tripple top glad I didn't trade that! |
Breaking out here. |
While valuation with NTI are still extremely cheap, and we have the tailwinds of the financial sector-momentum over the past year or so, I can see the high performance culture is the reason to be a long term growth investor here.
The chart shows no sign of a pull back and institutions should send the share price here to new highs. I feel this could be soon. |
That might be an automated response, with it incorrectly interpreting this as a drop in MTillbrook's holding. It seems he's funded, out of his own pocket, a very large share-based performance incentive scheme for the CEO, CFO, CRO and 15 senior managers over the next three years. He wants to incentivise them and maintain an entrepreneurial, founder culture in the firm. This is either great largesse or a belief that this will increase the value of his remaining holding by more than he's given away. He's still committed to holding at least 10% of the company for three years. I see this as very positive. |
That's certainly an option. Can you share the tip sheet? |
and yet tip sheet says you should take part profit |
From my understanding, ex CEO/Founder Morgan is giving away shares worth around £23 Million to senior management team and these are vested and forms part of their renumeration.Bodes well for future growth of the business. |
does anyone understands the buying and sellig by the x ceo rns today |
Today the Fed Chair Powell says central bank doesn’t ‘need to be in a hurry’ to lower interest rates further. Investment case remains compelling as every month passes for the past year or so. I may even add at these high's, not something I do being a contrarian. |
Extreme currency volatility with Trump Tariffs... even more of a need for ALPH's products. |
Fed hold rates today. Fed chair declines to provide ‘any response or comment whatsoever’ on president’s public demands for lower rates. Trump is a real estate guy and wants lower rates. We may get there slowly, but it is notable financial sector is again one of the strongest if not the strongest investment sector that will see double digit returns and are still on low valuations. But there are voices that say we are at neutral rate and in the goldilocks zone for NTI and global growth. |
Post script: At 2237p prior to the TU we've had a strong move up to 2463p as I type a 10% rise in three days. ALPH has moved out of the four month sideways channel. Mr Market appears to be responding to the return of organic growth.
As I previously described ALPH has characteristics that work in their favour throughout the business cycle. If we now have an environment with organic growth and high interest rates perpetuating - then ALPH should do very well. |
 Alpha Group International plc, with a market capitalisation of approximately £1 billion, offers foreign exchange risk management and alternative banking solutions across the United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, and other international markets.
Revenue streams primarily come from its Alpha Pay segment (£72.30 million) and Institutional segment (£67.47 million), along with additional contributions from Corporate Toronto, Corporate Amsterdam, and Corporate London (excluding Amsterdam).
Alpha Group International has achieved an impressive earnings growth of 46.3% over the past year, significantly outpacing the Capital Markets industry's growth rate of 12.5%. This remarkable performance is further supported by the company's debt-free status, enhancing its appeal in terms of financial stability.
With NTI the company's price-to-earnings ratio stands at a favourable 10.6x, compared to the UK market's average of 16x, indicating good relative value. Moreover, Alpha benefits from high-quality non-cash earnings and positive free cash flow, which are likely to sustain its robust financial health and drive future growth. |
 Pleasing to see Mr Market respond positively to this update - with underlying growth of 23%. Whilst it's 'only' in-line with expectations for underlying profit before tax and profit margins - it's a fantastic growth rate in difficult market conditions.
It would however be extremely useful if they actually stated what those expectations are in the RNS news release. Brokers' forecasts are in the public domain so there is no constraint on stating them in the TU. For example, see 20 Jan Judges Scientific - footnote:
1. Current consensus market expectations for the year ended 31 December 2024 are Adjusted basic earnings per share of 276.8p.
But I digress, back to the TU. Thanks to the current high interest rates the interest income continues to pour in £85m up 11% on 2023. Despite the £30m in buy-backs (£10m more in-progress) 23% of the market cap is accounted for by £217m of cash.
That's a lot of cash to be sitting on. It would be great if they could find a compatible bolt on like Cobase (client numbers and revenues increased by 59% and 70% resp.) but I suspect that it'll be more buy-backs. IMHO it would be nice to get a special dividend together with a share re-investment option.
Looking across the business units - all's well and moving in the right direction and with a positive outlook statement.
So, an excellent TU I reckon. |
Yes, fair point, Dave. One of my other stocks, QQ, took a bit of a nosedive today despite meeting expectations. However, the key takeaway with ALPH is its lowest valuation multiples, which position it as an extreme deep value with its outsized NTI. We'll see how things develop tomorrow and throughout the week as institutions digest the information and gain more clarity on the macroeconomic picture. |
This is shooting up now |
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