Alpha Growth Share Discussion Threads

[rdrenard] 29/6/2020 12:20

As someone said on LSE a while bad. We need some big US 'sugar daddy' to come and drop a tonne of money on ALGW and invest in funds and marketing.

If that happens then the share price will be 8p overnight.

[tewkesbury] 29/6/2020 12:04

Added a few more today myself. ALGW set to rocket.

P.S.
Chairman and Directors

29/05/20 - Gobind Sahney: Bought 666,667 @ 1.5p, Now holding 7,462,500 (3.64%)
29/05/20 - Danny Swick: Bought 666,667 @ 1.5p, Now holding 2,166,663 (1.06%)
29/05/20 - Jason Sutherland: Bought 133,333 @ 1.5p, Now holding 133,333 (0.07%)

[gilesfitzh] 29/6/2020 11:59

@mdchand: I wrote this a while back so bear in mind that Covid-19 will have pushed things back. We have also been told by GS that there are changes afoot which should be explained in the promised update.

"The US Life settlement market is absolutely massive at $19Trillion with $57Billion policies lapsing each year. Of these, less than $3Billion of policies are settled each year, leaving the remaining $54Billion that lapse, there to be bought. The market will grow over the next 10 years as the number of seniors (Age 65+) is projected to continue rising from the 42 million in 2012 to an estimated 70 million in 2030. So, both the supply of qualified policies, as well as demand for life settlements will continue to grow.
Those retiring now, and over the next 10 years, are used to using the internet which is ideal for targeted marketing which will build awareness that Life Settlement is a great option, far better than surrender or lapsing. Indeed Legislation is already present in 6 states in the US to ensure life policy holders are made aware of the settlement option.

Alpha, with SLIM and Colva, have in-house actuarial expertise specific to life policies - a quality not found in the usual settlement businesses. Alpha has one of the top Life Settlements market makers, Danny Swick, with $8Billion of trading experience, Jason Sutherland is linked with Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Group and has negotiated and structured multiple warehouse facilities between $30mn and $600mn and Austin King has his extensive connections for the sales.

The Black Oak Fund and it’s hybrids are an ‘uncorrelated’ asset class which is not affected by the usual financial markets. This is known to be of particular interest to UHNW Investors and Institutional Investors alike especially after the recent upheaval in the stock, commodity, and other financial markets. Additionally Alpha has structured a tax-efficient system which is especially attractive to these classes of investor and KPMG has validated a 16.2% annualised return.

I see no reason why DS shouldn’t achieve his target of $100mn (£80mn) by year-end, this will produce an annual income of £600k for ALGW which, as GS said, will mean the company will break even. If the BOAGF reaches £250mn by end 2021 that’s an annual income of over £1.8mn for ALGW. On the Hybrid side of the business, each Separate Managed Account that is signed up could well produce an additional annual income of £240k (see my post of 3rd May).

I try not to get carried away with the potential of ALGW but 20p/share by the end of the year is well within reach. I’ve said it before but DYOR."

By all means hop over to LSE and search my posts there for further opinions, but remember they are just my opinions.

[mdchand] 29/6/2020 11:26

Dear Gilesfitzh

As a large minority investor, would you be willing to share your reasons for investing in Alpha?. Is it personal connections, familiarity with life settlements, diversification away from traditional assets, or other?

I ask as someone who has previously recommended life settlement funds with - shall we say - mixed results. So I'm very well aware of the rationale for holding life settlement funds albeit equally aware of things that have gone wrong with them in the past (ie people living way beyond expectations leading to all manner of cash flow / liquidity issues).

Many thanks.

[7rademark] 29/6/2020 11:22

Full ask to buy mms paying over mid for stock, tick up coming.

[7rademark] 29/6/2020 10:52

Out of interest what is the largest % rise anyone has seen intraday, I seem to recall 400% on an aim stock a few years ago.

[tewkesbury] 29/6/2020 10:27

Chairman + Directors

29/05/20 - Gobind Sahney: Bought 666,667 @ 1.5p, Now holding 7,462,500 (3.64%)
29/05/20 - Danny Swick: Bought 666,667 @ 1.5p, Now holding 2,166,663 (1.06%)
29/05/20 - Jason Sutherland: Bought 133,333 @ 1.5p, Now holding 133,333 (0.07%)

[tewkesbury] 29/6/2020 10:26

ALGW would be a $100m company on news. Then add a few years growth and it could be over $250m, so 120p to 130p longer term.

[elevator1] 29/6/2020 10:24

There is very little free float of shares which helps push it higher and three directors have recently added to their holdings implying confidence.

20p is possible this year and longer-term over 40p, which is still below $100m market capitalisation so hardly demanding.

[gilesfitzh] 29/6/2020 10:11

Let's try and be realistic here. GS/DS were hoping for $100mn AUM this year before Covid-19 got in the way, and they might still manage this. That level of AUM should put ALGW into break-even territory. An share price of 5p after decent news in the next couple of weeks is certainly possible even likely but talk of 40-50p is ridiculous.

[snooker40] 29/6/2020 09:59

Personally more in tune with RDR at this point in time with the predicted values.....

[rdrenard] 29/6/2020 09:38

I think 5p on news after 2-3 days and then if they post a good flow of AUM updates throughout the year we will see it rise to 12-18p by close of 2020.

[tewkesbury] 29/6/2020 09:08

Gently gently keep adding.

[7rademark] 29/6/2020 09:02

Tewk. So you believe that on news we will see a share price rise intraday of 2400%I don't recall ever seeing such a rise personally

[tewkesbury] 29/6/2020 08:34

50p on news, then 125p after a couple of years.

[gilesfitzh] 28/6/2020 12:30

I could be wrong about Danny's shares but it also wouldn't be the first time ALGW didn't add up the shares correctly. I don't legally have to announce anything unless my wife and I go above 6% or below 5%.

[elevator1] 28/6/2020 12:22

giles, thanks, I have amended the post. If you, your wife or Danny Swick hold more than stated in the last holdings announcements, you and Danny need to update the market. Good to see directors with skin in the game, and strong support from you and others.

[gilesfitzh] 28/6/2020 08:56

@elevator1: Here are a couple of corrections and an addition to your post:
Gobind Sahney: owns 12,232,500 shares as he owns 80% of Alpha Longevity Management (Ireland) which owns 5,962,500 ALGW shares.
Danny Swick: I believe he owns 2,916,667, as he bought another 750,000 some time last year.
Additionally one of the original investors, named A. Khan owns 13,350,000 shares. I believe that this is Mrs Aisha Khan, wife of Max Khan who owns the other 20% of the Dublin Company making their combined holding 14,542,500 shares.
My wife and I hold 10,715,000 shares at the moment. IMO the update promised for end June / early July (probably Friday 10th or Monday 13th) will be significant.

[snooker40] 27/6/2020 13:03

Thanks and well done elevator 1

[elevator1] 27/6/2020 11:52

ALGW: Significant Recent Share Purchases & Holdings by Chairman, Directors, Private Investors & Institutions - Updated 1/7/2020:

1) Chairman + Directors

29/05/20 - Gobind Sahney: Bought 666,667 @ 1.5p, Now holding 7,462,500 (3.64%)
29/05/20 - Danny Swick: Bought 666,667 @ 1.5p, Now holding 2,166,663 (1.06%)
29/05/20 - Jason Sutherland: Bought 133,333 @ 1.5p, Now holding 133,333 (0.07%)

Gobind Sahney also owns 80% of Alpha Longevity Management (Ireland) which owns 5,962,500 ALGW shares.

2) Private Investors

a) Mark Ward

01/07/20 - Holding increased to 14,358,051 (7%)
24/06/20 - Holding increased to 13,000,000 (6.33%)
27/05/20 - Holding increased to 10,116,697 (5.01%)
21/05/20 - Holding increased to 8,344,306 (4.13%)
06/05/20 - Holding increased to 6,821,715 (3.38%)

b) M.B. Alder

04/06/20 - Holding increased to 6,165,916 (3%)

c) Mr G.P. and Mrs A.C. Fitzherbert

26/03/20 - Holding increased to 10,110,000 (5%)
19/03/20 - Holding increased to 8,548,000 (4.2%)
26/02/20 - Holding increased to 6,558,000 (3.25%)

d) Mr A. Khan

18/9/2019 - Holding increased to 13,350,000 (8.41%)

e) M. Staten

Annual Report - Holding 11,690,050 (6%)

3) Institutional Investors

a) Acqam International FZE

12/8/2019 - Holding increased to 23,138,300 (14.58%)

b) Sigma Broking Ltd

Annual Report - Holding 5,433,300 (3%)

N.B.
Not sure if the PDMR's (Chairman + Directors) are still within or outside a 'closed period' following their 29/05/20 share purchases, but it does suggest they anticipate positive news to come, either after T+30 or T+60 (not sure which one applies under the Regulations on closed periods for transactins ahead of news).

[snooker40] 27/6/2020 07:37

elevator 1 . I have not got the time at the moment but to add to your good work
C) Giles Fitzherbert should be added in a similar way because he holds over 5% of the company as a private investor ...he was the first of your list to reach the 5% level.
We can expect news from Monday onwards imo, which I expect to be good

[elevator1] 26/6/2020 19:17

See #5313, updated following advice in next post by Snooker40. Thanks

[snooker40] 26/6/2020 17:22

Stmellons28,,,stay put ...this is the start

[stmellons28] 26/6/2020 16:43

My 8k invested with a 2p average is looking loads better, I was so tempted to sell at a loss but I’ve always believed in Algw so on news could smash 2p out of the water.