Allied Irish Banks Share Discussion Threads

[knickers2] 02/10/2009 11:31

On cue....the price falls 20% since yeterday's highs, to show
dispossessed pensioner shareholders in the Irish Banks why they should
vote no today....

[lbo] 01/10/2009 18:13

Canadian bank in early talks with Allied Irish -sources

[westmoreland lad] 28/9/2009 23:23

lol -- urrm, f now m8 izz got a wee blank space on de spread sheet against de Wirrals 'odds on take over favorite'

I'll stick to Rockhopping -- and de drink

[lbo] 28/9/2009 22:39

It was probably on the back of the Farmleigh Invitation! LOL

(saved on handing out goody bags at the end to the all the Irish tax exiles)

[hermana] 28/9/2009 22:33

LBO,how come "the Kaiser" was so sure nationalisation would never happen? Enquiring minds think he may have got the wink on that one.

[willjam] 28/9/2009 18:24

Dont follow your logic:NAMA will be selling below cost so no tax arises

the only people effected are those who would try to buy cheap and flip They caused the problem in the first place

Tough on them, it will kill the get rich quick trick of buying land and "persuading" local officals to change zoning

Anybody who buys to actually develop has no problem or tax cost
the chanches of buying developing land and reselling in the short term at a profit is remote so the land will actually be developed and the losers will be the developers who bought at the top of the market, but remember for every buyer there was a seller

[lbo] 28/9/2009 12:31

Of course it does! It makes a bad situation even worse for the value of land and sites to any possible (albeit probably foolish) purchaser! They have just shot themselves in the foot and killed any chance of NAMA dumping any of the worthless NAMA land on any foolish investor. They should have done this when the land market was booming not when it on its knees and after all land has basically been nationalised! LOL

[willjam] 27/9/2009 09:08

Site sales tax of 80% does not effect NAMA
iT ONLY APPLIES TO PROFIT ON SITE SALES
This will be a rare event as there is enough development land floating around for any new to come to the market

[lbo] 26/9/2009 13:32

AIB plans sale of €1.1bn M&T stake

[lbo] 22/9/2009 14:35

Site sales to be hit by 80pc NAMA tax
Windfall rate to apply on all land rezoned and taken under CPO

[lbo] 21/9/2009 10:43

Government estimates for the amount of capital AIB will need following the transfer of loans to Nama are higher than the €2bn the bank itself believes it requires, the Sunday Tribune has learned.

[lochgarman] 17/9/2009 09:54

all going according to plan so! lol

[napoleon111] 17/9/2009 08:59

AIB's response to the Minister for Finance's statement


Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. ("AIB") [NYSE: AIB] is issuing this announcement following today's statement made by the Minister for Finance in relation to the potential effects of the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) and Government funding guarantee.

At the outset, the board and management of AIB acknowledge the crucial leadership role of the Government to ensure a properly functioning banking system that fulfils its vital role of supporting the economy. We recognise the challenges posed by the current environment and note the measures proposed by the Minister. We reiterate our acknowledgement of and apology for the part we played in contributing to this challenging environment.

The Minister has now indicated c. €24bn (gross) of AIB loans in respect of which the economic interest could be transferred to NAMA. We understand the transfer will take place on a phased basis beginning in November this year with completion targeted for mid 2010. Taking account of the variation in asset quality and mix, the capital implications for AIB and other banks can only be known when the loans are individually valued on a case by case basis over the coming year. Acknowledging this, the Minister estimated an average industry wide discount of 30% for the NAMA eligible loans and also stressed the variability between banks. AIB together with leading international risk experts is conducting an extensive review of its NAMA eligible loans using appropriate economic valuation techniques to determine valuation outcomes. Based on the work to date, which covers around half the value of our NAMA eligible loans, AIB expects the discount will be less than the estimated industry wide average of 30%. The following key factors underpin that expectation:

· Our top 25 connections account for c. €8bn or 33% of our NAMA eligible loans and have c. 80% of their collateral by value concentrated in Dublin.
· Based on eligible loans of c. €24bn, c. €17bn are land and development loans and c. €7bn are associated loans and of this €7bn over 90% are performing, underpinned by independent cashflows.

Based on the Minister's estimated average industry wide discount of 30% (which as we have already stated is expected to exceed the estimated maximum for AIB) and allowing for our estimated 2009 year end provisions of c. €3.5bn in respect of NAMA eligible loans, the net write down for AIB would be c. €3.7bn before tax. Our expectation of a lower discount for AIB than the average industry wide discount would have a material positive effect on the write down; for every 1% reduction in the discount, the write down is reduced by c. €240m. The actual net write down will have a phased effect on our capital position over the next twelve months. As at 30 June 2009 our core tier 1 capital ratio was 8.5%, having absorbed a bad debt charge of almost €2.4bn and we expect our capital ratios to remain resilient.

The Minister has said that he expects banks to rebuild over time their regulatory equity capital / risk weighted assets ratios. In anticipation of various capital requirement scenarios and in addition to the normal capital formation from operations, we have available to us a range of sources of capital. We are confident that one or more of these sources will increase our capital to a level that will satisfy stakeholders through the trough of this economic cycle and in this regard it is now our intention to generate in the region of €2bn of capital which we expect to complete over the next 12 – 18 months. The potential sources of capital include:

The equity market
Investors have previously signalled strong interest in participating in a recapitalisation when some key terms of NAMA are clarified. We believe that we are now moving towards sufficient clarity to enable existing and potential shareholders to consider an investment proposition. Underpinning the investment proposition is a diverse business with a strong and resilient earnings capability.

A strategic investment
On 14th August we announced that we had received interest from a third party with a potential interest in taking a minority stake in AIB. In the previous announcement we noted in particular the need for greater clarity in respect of NAMA before discussions between us could more meaningfully progress. Following the Minister's statement we will continue to explore strategic options including potential investments in the bank. There remains no certainty that these discussions will lead to proposals.

Asset sales / business disposals
AIB has a range of assets which extends across geographies and business lines in respect of which we believe there is strong third party interest. AIB maintains an ongoing review of its businesses and the decision to retain or dispose of certain assets will be based on a number of criteria including strategic rationale, likely sales proceeds, capital impact, funding and earning effects.

We acknowledge the Government's intent to assist and support potential capital raising measures and its appreciation that such measures should be taken over a reasonable timeframe.

The commitment to adjust and modify the Government guarantee to depositors and other suppliers of funding provides certainty and security to them. We are informed that the cost of both the existing and modified guarantees will increase significantly above the c. €110m per annum currently being incurred. The current figure represents a charge factor of 9.5 basis points of covered liabilities under the guarantee. For the remaining one year period of this guarantee to September 2010, the charge factor will increase to 22.7 basis points. The effect of this is to increase the charge to c. €140m for 2009 and c. €170m for the remaining period to September 2010. On issuance of the new modified guarantee (ELG), a further yet to be defined increase is expected to apply in line with EU guidelines.

Further updates to the initiatives outlined in this announcement will be made in due course.

[ch1ck] 17/9/2009 08:26

up 27% already

[ch1ck] 17/9/2009 07:17

Fantastic news NAMA cover and third party interest up 40 % is my guess.

[moneybags] 16/9/2009 20:36

Allied up over 25% on Wall st tonight with 30 minutes to Wall st close.



Regards , Moneybags

[napoleon111] 16/9/2009 19:25

bye bye irish banking industry, LOL!!

[tom.b] 16/9/2009 12:34

Unless I'm badly mistaken NAMA is the best news for these shars for an awful long time..goo news to be announced this afternoon...DYOR

[lbo] 11/9/2009 12:36

Bank Zachodni WBK, the Polish unit of Allied Irish Banks, said provisions for risky loans may be less than 1.5 per cent of total assets at the end of 2009, down from an earlier estimate of 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent.

[lbo] 08/9/2009 10:09

A number of banks have expressed an interest in taking over Allied Irish Banks' 24pc stake in M&T Bank, according to the head of the US regional lender




SHARES in US-based M&T Bank Corp – 22.64% owned by AIB – are set to jump, accordingto the latest edition of Barron's.

[lochgarman] 02/9/2009 17:56

Tax take improves in august