Allied Irish Banks Share Discussion Threads

[crosswire] 07/6/2009 11:55

So are the small shareholders or the institutions right about bank shares?

Given the institutions' abysmal record when it comes to buying or selling any sort of shares, it would be a brave man who bets against the small investors.

[crosswire] 07/6/2009 11:54

Big boys are selling up their bank shares


Sunday June 07 2009

IRISH bank shares have enjoyed a remarkable run since their early-March lows with the index of Irish bank shares, basically Allied Irish Bank, Bank of Ireland, and IL&P, jumping almost seven-fold over the past three months.

This mini-bull run in Irish bank shares is a reflection of what is happening in other larger markets with bank shares in the United States almost doubling over the same period.

But have the large institutions missed out on the rally in bank shares? One legacy of the collapse in bank share prices seems to be that a much higher proportion of bank shares is now held by retail rather than institutional investors.

While there are no up-to-date figures, most brokers report that, as the big institutions sell out, small shareholders are buying into the banks.

The 2008 annual report from Allied Irish Bank reveals that the proportion of the shares held by shareholders owning less than 10,000 shares stood at 15 per cent at the end of last year, up from 12 per cent at the end of 2007, while the proportion of the company held by shareholders owning more than 100,000 shares fell from 80 per cent to 77 per cent.

Something similar seems to happening at Irish Life & Permanent, with the proportion of shares held by shareholders owning less than 10,000 shares rising from 21 per cent to 23 per cent last year. Over the same period, the proportion of shares held by those owning more than 100,000 shares fell from almost 73 per cent to 71.5 per cent.

Unfortunately these numbers are for the end of December 2008 -- ancient history in these fast-changing times. What's been happening over the past five months?

The Bank of Ireland annual report, which was published on Friday, covers the 12 months to the end of March. The figures contained in the report show that the proportion of bank shares being held by small retail investors has continued to increase.

At the end of March 2008 the proportion of Bank of Ireland shares held by shareholders owning less than 10,000 shares was similar to AIB's end-2007 level of 12 per cent. However, by the end of March 2009 this proportion had risen to about 17.5 per cent.

At the same time as the proportion of Bank of Ireland shares being held by small investors has been rising, the proportion owned by larger shareholders has been dropping.

At the end of March 2008, shareholders with over 100,000 shares owned a cumulative 78 per cent of Bank of Ireland. By the end of March 2009, this had fallen to less than 68 per cent.

Quite clearly, institutional shareholders have been selling out of the Irish banks since last year's meltdown and the trend is continuing.

Meanwhile, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan of Abu Dhabi, who also owns Manchester City FC, pocketed a £1.45bn profit when he sold all of his 1.3 billion shares in UK bank Barclays during the week.

The sheikh acquired the shares as part of Barclays' emergency fundraising last October and left many observers wondering whether he had called the top of the market in bank shares.

So are the small shareholders or the institutions right about bank shares?

Given the institutions' abysmal record when it comes to buying or selling any sort of shares, it would be a brave man who bets against the small investors.

[crosswire] 07/6/2009 11:52

Experts say AIB could get €900m from debt buyback

By Joe Brennan

Friday June 05 2009

Allied Irish Bank, which the Government has given until the end of this year to raise €1.5bn to bolster its balance sheet, could generate about €900m if it were to follow Bank of Ireland's lead in buying back some of its riskier bonds, according to analysts.

The bank got €3.5bn of capital from the State last month, but Finance Minister Brian Lenihan insisted AIB top this amount up as it forecast €4.3bn of bad loan losses this year.

The bank said at its recent annual general meeting that it was considering buying back some of its "hybrid" bonds, which are trading at a deep discount in the market as they are not covered by the banking guarantee scheme.
However, it declined to comment yesterday on how advanced its plans are.

[lbo] 06/6/2009 16:44

'Getting worse more slowly'



THE GLOBAL economy is "stabilising", but could still face into at least a decade of stagnation, according to Prof Paul Krugman.



IRELAND MUST "suffer" through at least five years of economic weakness before recovering to match average euro-zone growth, according Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman.

[crosswire] 06/6/2009 06:37

JUNE 5, 2009, 4:41 P.M. ET

ADR Report: ADRs Mixed, With Spotlight On Rio Tinto Deal Article Email Printer

David Benoit

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)


Meanwhile, most U.K.-based banks rose Friday, with Allied Irish Banks PLC (AIB) up 14%, Bank of Ireland (IRE) up 10% and Barclays PLC (BCS) up 4.4%.

[crosswire] 06/6/2009 06:32

Lovely close on NYSE, hugh rally @ close.

After hours trading @ £6.45.. should bypass 7 bucks on Monday.

[lochgarman] 05/6/2009 18:54

And long may it last!.....

[crosswire] 05/6/2009 17:03

SmarTrend Spotlights - 6/5/2009


Allied Irish Banks Up 215.3% Since SmarTrend's Buy Recommendation

By Chip Brian, SmarTrend Analytics Team


SmarTrend, our proprietary pattern recognition system, called an Uptrend for Allied Irish Banks (NYSE:AIB) on 03/23/2009 at $1.90. Since then, Allied Irish Banks has returned 215.3% as of today's recent price of $5.99.

[the go to guy] 04/6/2009 09:45

Ireland Loses Iceland Stigma as Euro Ensures No Return to Past

[lbo] 04/6/2009 09:42

Krugman fears a prolonged slowdown



The economic slowdown could last five to 10 years and cost trillions of dollars, according to Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman.

[crosswire] 04/6/2009 06:14

BoI bond buy-back to result in €1bn profit

Anglo follows suit and speculation mounts Allied Irish may be next

By Joe Brennan


Thursday June 04 2009

Bank of Ireland said yesterday it was on track to make a much-needed €1bn once-off profit from buying back some of its riskier bonds, which have been trading at a deep discount in the markets.

The gain, coming hot on the heels of a €3.5bn state recapitalisation, will help further bolster its capital reserves as the group prepares to write down €6bn of bad loans over three years.

The bank has bought back 58pc of the non-core tier one bonds in the hands of UK and European investors.

It paid between 38pc and 50pc of the total €1.26bn value at which they were originally sold -- and which BoI has accounted for them in its own books. BoI will, as a result, be able record the difference between both prices as profit.

The very cheap prices at which these securities are trading in the market reflect the fact that they are not covered by the €440bn government guarantee.

BoI also has a tender offer out for a maximum of $600m of similar 'hybrid' bonds in America, which expires on June 16.

All told, the bank now believes the exercise will generate a €1bn gain from a balance sheet rejig -- much higher than the €700m most analysts in Dublin had expected.

Anglo Irish Bank, which is receiving a €4bn cash injection from the Government, also signalled last week it plans to mop up some of its hybrid securities at sharply reduced prices. It has been speculated that the nationalised bank could also pocket a €1bn windfall from the measure.

Shares in Allied Irish Banks soared 17.6pc to €1.88 on mounting speculation it may soon follow suit, giving it a market value of €1.65bn. BoI, which has stolen a march on its


- Joe Brennan

[crosswire] 04/6/2009 06:10

Analyst Consensus 12 Month Target Price

The 8 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Allied Irish Banks (AIB:ISE) have a median target of 2.34, with a high estimate of 7.50 and a low estimate of 1.06. The median estimate represents a 46.12% increase from the last price of 1.60

[crosswire] 04/6/2009 06:06

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Iseq buoyed by bullish AIB and Ryanair performance

RENEE JONESDUBLIN REPORT Iseq: 2,852.20 (+34.17) Settlement date: June 8th

THE IRISH Stock Exchange was buoyed by strong performances in the markets led by Allied Irish Banks and Ryanair and closed up 34.17, or 1.21 per cent, at 2852.20.

Brokers pointed to these two stocks as the main reasons behind the Iseq's strong day with Allied Irish Banks producing an outstanding performance, up 17.65 per cent to close at €1.88.

Dealers said the bank could simply be catching up after lagging behind Bank of Ireland over the last few weeks. The remaining financial stocks had a mixed performance with Bank of Ireland increasing slightly by 1.97 per cent to close at €1.81

[lbo] 03/6/2009 22:12

ONE OF Dublin's best known business premises, Bewleys of Westmoreland Street, an adjoining bar and nightclub and a hotel around the corner in Temple Bar, are to be offered for sale at roughly half the price they made about two-and-a-half years ago.The sale has been triggered by AIB which funded the original purchase through Thedforde Trading Ltd, a property syndicate headed by Simon Kelly, Col Campbell and Rory Donohoe

[crosswire] 03/6/2009 19:35

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Trading volumes concentrated on banks, Ryanair

ISEQ: 2,867 (+49) at 12.45pm:

Trading volumes in Dublin were this morning were concentrated on the two large financials and Ryanair as the market rose 1.7 per cent.


At 12.45pm the Iseq index of Irish shares was up 49 points at 2,867,

Most investor activity was concentrated around AIB which was 12 per cent higher at €1.79 by lunchtime with almost 5 million shares traded. Brokers said the buying was from a mix of institutional and private investors.

Despite the gains it still lags Bank of Ireland by some €200 million in terms of market capitalisation but the gap is narrowing.

Bank of Ireland shares were up 2.5 per cent at €1.82, with just under 4 million shares traded.

Following a dip in its shares yesterday after reporting its first full-year loss in 20 years Ryanair stock rebounded today by gaining 5.5 per cent to €3.73 with 3 million shares traded.

One Dublin broker said the results had been well received in the US and that support for the stock was increasing as investors digested the results.

Elsewhere CRH was becalmed at €17.64 marginally ahead in a rising market. Dublin analysts suggested the stock was "range-bound between €17 to €20".

[crosswire] 03/6/2009 17:55

Last Updated: Wednesday, June 3, 2009, 17:33

Exchequer deficit hits €10.6bn

AURA SLATTERY

The Exchequer deficit has widened to almost €10.6 billion, according to the May public finances data published this afternoon by the Department of Finance. This compares to a deficit of €3.6 billion in the same period last year.

However, better than expected revenues from income tax, excise duties and corporation tax offset further slippage in receipts from VAT and property-related taxes, leaving the Government with a tax haul of €13.5 billion for the first five months of 2009.

This is slightly ahead of the tax projections published by the Department of Finance at the end of April, but the tax take remains subdued compared to last year, with receipts down 21 per cent compared to the €17.1 billion collected in the same period in 2008.

The rate of decline has eased since last month, when the year-on-year decrease was 24 per cent. But Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan said in a statement that there were still "significant targets" to be reached in the months ahead if the Government is to reach its full-year tax receipt target of €34.4 billion.

Consumers' reluctance to spend money in the nervous economic environment continues to be reflected in the low rate of VAT receipts. The Government has collected €5.3 billion in VAT receipts since the beginning of the year. This is down 21 per cent on 2008 and already 3.7 per cent behind the April projections.

However, partly as a result of the impact of the income levy, the income tax category has held up better. At €4.6 billion, income tax receipts are down just 6.8 per cent on 2008 and are running 1 per cent ahead of the April projections.

Mr Lenihan said stabilising the Exchequer finances was essential for the recovery of the Irish economy, but repeated his opinion that scope for further tax increases was limited.

"The majority of the future budgetary adjustment will have to be borne on the spending side of the Government account," he said.

Expenditure on public services has progressed "as expected" so far in 2009, with the main pressures being in the health and social welfare departments.

The May data shows that expenditure in the Department of Social and Family Affairs has increased almost 13 per cent on the same period last year, largely as a result of the escalation in the number of unemployed people.

Overall, voted Government expenditure in the first five months came to €19.6 billion, up 3 per cent on 2008.

Alan McQuaid, an economist at stockbroking firm Bloxham, said the figures continued to paint a bleak picture of the public finances, adding that the road to recovery would be long and "unlikely to be smooth".

But he added that there was no reason why the Government should not be able to meet its revised General Government Deficit target for 2009 of €18.4 billion, or 10.75 per cent of GDP, if the economy continued to improve.

[crosswire] 03/6/2009 15:02

Cowen says tax receipts will be on target

Wednesday, 3 June 2009



The Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, has indicated that Exchequer figures due to be published later today will be in line with the Government's expectations.


Figures published last month showed a massive €7.3bn deficit in the first four months of the year following a massive decline in tax receipts that was not foreseen by the Government.

However, speaking in Maynooth today, Mr Cowen said this month's figures would come in on target.

He also claimed the recession was "bottoming out" and insisted the country was in a good position to return to growth.

[crosswire] 03/6/2009 13:51

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Early boost for ISEQ

Wednesday, June 03, 2009 - 12:03 PM



The ISEQ index of Irish shares was up 46.45 points to 2,864.48 by midday today.

The financials all did well, with Allied Irish Banks leading the way, gaining 21c to €1.81. Irish Life and Permanent (up 12c to €3.62) and Bank of Ireland (up 8c to €1.85) also saw increases.

There was mixed news in both the construction and energy sectors. In construction, CRH grew 10c to €17.70, but Kingspan dropped 20c to €4.95. Meanwhile, Dragon Oil jumped 27c to €3.85, with Tullow Oil losing 19c to €11.60.

The food sector was on the rise, with Glanbia up 10c to €2.47 and Kerry Group climbing 15c to €16.80.

Other significant gains of the day so far included FBD (up 18c to €7.42), Ryanair (up 14c to €3.68) and Merrion Pharmacies (up 10c to €4.20).



Read more: "Early boost for ISEQ | Irish Examiner" -

[lbo] 02/6/2009 22:34

Don't forget about the weakening dollars effect on the ADRs and on the value of its M&T shares!



The Irish stock exchange played "catch up" with gains made on international markets after being closed for trading on Monday's bank holiday

[lochgarman] 02/6/2009 21:36

brx7...i would say so....very good volume trading also....must be a few institutions topping up or starting a position.

[brx7] 02/6/2009 19:20

catching up to bkir?